Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Rifleman62]

What is Canada, Europe going to do/say/act when Trump back stabs Ukraine?

BETRAYAL GOES VIRAL: True Negotiation Terms REVEALED​

 

[lenaitch]

Ukraine could have made different policy choices - concessions in practical recognition of Russia's interests - that might have forestalled the 2022 invasion.

Really? You're putting any part of the Russian invasion of a sovereign nation on Ukraine's shoulders?

 

[Remius]

Really? You're putting any part of the Russian invasion of a sovereign nation on Ukraine's shoulders?

Sone real money was made in the influencer works doing exactly that.

 

[McG]

Really? You're putting any part of the Russian invasion of a sovereign nation on Ukraine's shoulders?

Some people believe she should have worn pants if she did not want to be raped.
Some people apply the same thinking to nations.
It is abhorrent thinking either way.

 

[KevinB]

I'm certain we can't employ military force indiscriminately against civilians, and equally certain there are means we can't employ against combatants.

As Russia has shown, you can do anything you want, and no one is going to stop you, regardless of International Laws and Conventions to the contrary.

Regardless, we're not really at war with Russia.

Russia is at war with us, the faster everyone in the West understands that the better.

From where I sit, I'm considering the opposing sides in a war I'm not involved in. Russia's the incontrovertible aggressor, but Ukraine could have made different policy choices - concessions in practical recognition of Russia's interests - that might have forestalled the 2022 invasion.

Zelensky was elected originally on a policy of conciliation to Putin. He gave up when he realized that Russia wasn’t interested in only a bit of Ukraine. Nothing was going to stop Putin from invading other than NATO parking troops on the RU/UKR border.

As far as not really involved in, I’m sure a lot of folks said that about Hitler when he and Stalin divided up Poland. Unfortunately Hitler kept going, and it’s pretty evident that VVP plans on trying to put the USSR back together. So unless we plan on breaking more agreements and alliances, we will be involved.

I give a lot of latitude to "you started it, we'll finish it" - I have certainly done so when discussing what care was "owed" to Japanese or Germans during WW II despite their respective failures to bring their governments to heel - but there are practical limits that apply to conflict short of total industrialized war.

The Biden administration set the benchmark for US involvement; the Obama administration also set one. It is approximately risible to criticize the US under Trump for not doing more.

Except that the Trump Administration is doing a lot less as far as Military aid goes.

If US intervention has always been off the table, that leaves European intervention. They've had a couple of years; how ready are they to roll? There are no other practical intervenors.

Europe, like Canada has enjoyed a considerable peace dividend, they are re-arming but much too slowly to offer much.

If the US won't push Russia out, and Europe won't push Russia out, and neither the US nor Europe will arm Ukraine on the scale needed to push Russia out, then Russia isn't going to be pushed out. If Russia isn't going to be pushed out, and obviously isn't going to be persuaded to remove itself by any other pressures applied or realistically in contemplation, that leaves bringing things to an end to staunch the killing, which means accepting fait accompli.

Except that isn’t up to us, factually every dead Russia is a win for us, and if Ukraine isn’t wishing to accept the status of Russian occupation of their territories, it surely isn’t on the US to attempt to force them too.

The Russian economy is in freefall, as long as Ukraine keeps striking the Russian oil refineries, that isn’t going to change any time soon. While Russia has more manpower, they are hemorrhaging troops at a 10:1 rate to Ukrainians.

Russia has needed significant help from China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as economic help from countries that continue to buy its oil.
Squeezing those countries off Russian oil, and squeezing its military suppliers, will force Russia to make drastic changes to its current policies.

 

[QV]

....as well as economic help from countries that continue to buy its oil.
Squeezing those countries off Russian oil, and squeezing its military suppliers, will force Russia to make drastic changes to its current policies.

I recall Trump specifically asking countries to get off Russian O&G in his first term.

 

[RangerRay]

Imagine how bad the Munich Conference would have been if the chief negotiators were also unqualified hacks totally out of their depth…

Trump's Munich for Idiots

Let it be noted that the post-World War II Order ended not with a bang, but with a blithering blunder.

open.substack.com

One other thing is blindingly obvious: The talks that led to this Munich-like summit were a cock-up wrapped in a clusterfuq. But this, perhaps, is inevitable when “diplomacy” is out-sourced to a fellow real estate hack, an unqualified and naive doofus who does not understand the language, the personalities, or, evidently, the details of the “deal.”

 

[Czech_pivo]

Imagine how bad the Munich Conference would have been if the chief negotiators were also unqualified hacks totally out of their depth…

Trump's Munich for Idiots

Let it be noted that the post-World War II Order ended not with a bang, but with a blithering blunder.

open.substack.com

I wonder if Trump will include Sara Palin in the negotiations, after all she used to live next to Russia.

 

[RangerRay]

I wonder if Trump will include Sara Palin in the negotiations, after all she used to live next to Russia.

No, she might actually be more competent than anyone in this clown show. She was actually critical of Russia once upon a time.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

No, she might actually be more competent than anyone in this clown show. She was actually critical of Russia once upon a time.

She would certainly make a much better VP

 

[HavokFour]

Anyone catch the Presser today? Dropped a real gem of strategic wisdom.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1mni3vo/trump_the_russians_would_have_been_in_kyiv_in_4

I'm pretty sure everyone here is familiar with that one infamous stretch of road the Russians got themselves stuck on at the beginning of the war.

EDIT: Catching up on it for myself, he also said he'd be in Russia (Alaska) on Friday.

 

[RangerRay]

She would certainly make a much better VP

But that’s not saying much…a ham sandwich would do a better job.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Really? You're putting any part of the Russian invasion of a sovereign nation on Ukraine's shoulders?

Yes. "You're victim blaming/shaming" doesn't work on me. This is geopolitics and conflict between national interests, not individual mobility rights. Not a large part of responsibility, but Ukraine has always known that Russia wants a secure naval establishment in the Crimea and is sensitive to the treatment of ethnic Russians in former Soviet Union republics. The difference between "to blame" and "might reasonably have prevented" is in consideration.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Some people believe she should have worn pants if she did not want to be raped.
Some people apply the same thinking to nations.
It is abhorrent thinking either way.

Again, geopolitics isn't individual rights. Again, "to blame" and "might reasonably have prevented" are what's up for discussion. You have the right to go anywhere in public you please, but there are some neighbourhoods you invite trouble for yourself by entering.

 

[Remius]

Again, geopolitics isn't individual rights. Again, "to blame" and "might reasonably have prevented" are what's up for discussion. You have the right to go anywhere in public you please, but there are some neighbourhoods you invite trouble for yourself by entering.

Sounds a lot like Russian talking points.

Is that an acceptable position or not is the real question. Geopolitically do we accept territorial grabs by force or not.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yes. "You're victim blaming/shaming" doesn't work on me. This is geopolitics and conflict between national interests, not individual mobility rights. Not a large part of responsibility, but Ukraine has always known that Russia wants a secure naval establishment in the Crimea and is sensitive to the treatment of ethnic Russians in former Soviet Union republics. The difference between "to blame" and "might reasonably have prevented" is in consideration.

The part - 'is sensitive to the treatment of ethnic Russians Germans in former Soviet Union republics German territory' - sounds familiar to me, but for the life of me I can't place where I've heard it before.......

 

[Brad Sallows]

As Russia has shown, you can do anything you want, and no one is going to stop you, regardless of International Laws and Conventions to the contrary.

Russia is at war with us, the faster everyone in the West understands that the better.

Zelensky was elected originally on a policy of conciliation to Putin. He gave up when he realized that Russia wasn’t interested in only a bit of Ukraine. Nothing was going to stop Putin from invading other than NATO parking troops on the RU/UKR border.

As far as not really involved in, I’m sure a lot of folks said that about Hitler when he and Stalin divided up Poland. Unfortunately Hitler kept going, and it’s pretty evident that VVP plans on trying to put the USSR back together. So unless we plan on breaking more agreements and alliances, we will be involved.



Except that the Trump Administration is doing a lot less as far as Military aid goes.

Europe, like Canada has enjoyed a considerable peace dividend, they are re-arming but much too slowly to offer much.

Except that isn’t up to us, factually every dead Russia is a win for us, and if Ukraine isn’t wishing to accept the status of Russian occupation of their territories, it surely isn’t on the US to attempt to force them too.

The Russian economy is in freefall, as long as Ukraine keeps striking the Russian oil refineries, that isn’t going to change any time soon. While Russia has more manpower, they are hemorrhaging troops at a 10:1 rate to Ukrainians.

Russia has needed significant help from China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as economic help from countries that continue to buy its oil.
Squeezing those countries off Russian oil, and squeezing its military suppliers, will force Russia to make drastic changes to its current policies.

It's not true that a country can do anything it wants. Russia might like to re-occupy other countries, too, but it hasn't tried very hard. NATO has much to do with that. If Ukraine had been less corrupt it might have been admitted to NATO; if someone had reacted strongly enough in 2014 or 2018 Russia might have been dissuaded from further seizures (if, if). If we stretch the parameters enough, we're at war with Russia - and China, and several other countries or strong-ish factions. Looking back, I'm confident historians are going to see escalation in 2022 or right now as options approximately as prudent as going to war with Germany in 1938, or launching offensives into Germany in 1939. (Yes, I'm aware some people argue that Germany was weaker at both junctures, too.)

"Ukraine" decides whether it is willing to keep trading lives - some undoubtedly of people unwilling but compelled - for slow loss of territory, but the conclusion that the war is worth continuing depends on the assumption Russia won't reach some kind of domination point at which Ukraine starts to rapidly collapse. If that happens, halting or suspending the war when it still looked like a stalemate will look like a golden missed opportunity. Ukraine needs to buy time. Take the M out of DIME and allow other pressures to work, if we think they might.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sounds a lot like Russian talking points.

Is that an acceptable position or not is the real question. Geopolitically do we accept territorial grabs by force or not.

We don't "accept". Does that justify any cost paid? No. At the extreme end, if Russia launched one low-yield nuke into mostly unoccupied territory to make the point that it refused to submit to international concensus, should we go on? Short of that, then, what kind of limits should we set on what we're willing to do and pay?

I have suggested others propose what they think might be limits. People ought to stop trying to beat up a strawman by dumbing that position down to accepting anything.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The part - 'is sensitive to the treatment of ethnic Russians Germans in former Soviet Union republics German territory' - sounds familiar to me, but for the life of me I can't place where I've heard it before.......

Again, waving the Nazi flag. How hard is it to not mention all of the other conflicts partly rooted in the treatment of ethnic minorities across borders and the desire of ethnic majority countries to intervene? FRY? Much of Africa and other parts of the world with borders drawn by colonial empires and other conquests?

 

[Remius]

We don't "accept"

convenient…

By attempting to define “limits” though you set the bar for people like Putin to cross them. So no. Never set limits and never set costs.

That’s how the killbots were defeated by Zap Brannigan. He knew what the kill bot setting was.