Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Kirkhill]

He's right. Depending on their doctrine, of course..

Same story since Tunisia 1942 - Waho Mohammed!

 

[GR66]

Ukrainian drones take out a Russian S-400 launcher while on the move.

Ukrainian drones destroy Russian S-400 launchers

Ukrainian strike drones destroyed two self-propelled launchers of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in the Belgorod region, according to Ukrainian military officials and open-source analysis released this week. As reported by Militarnyi, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces

defence-blog.com

Are we at the point that LRAD/MRAD systems need dedicated SHORAD systems to protect them?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Ukrainian drones take out a Russian S-400 launcher while on the move.

Ukrainian drones destroy Russian S-400 launchers

Ukrainian strike drones destroyed two self-propelled launchers of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in the Belgorod region, according to Ukrainian military officials and open-source analysis released this week. As reported by Militarnyi, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces

defence-blog.com

Are we at the point that LRAD/MRAD systems need dedicated SHORAD systems to protect them?

I noticed that trend sometime ago and stated that such systems needed a SHORAD network to travel under and enough SHORAD systems to be able to leapfrog each other and setup ahead of the movement of the main system.

 

[GR66]

I noticed that trend sometime ago and stated that such systems needed a SHORAD network to travel under and enough SHORAD systems to be able to leapfrog each other and setup ahead of the movement of the main system.

With the ubiquity of small UAVs we're quite likely at the point that every unit needs a SHORAD (or at least VSHORAD) capability embedded within their TOE.

 

[HavokFour]

A not so subtle green light?

The Kremlin’s brazen tactics: Russia’s shadow fleet is doubling as a spy asset, intelligence sources say​

I'd say so.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3madkznhnis2p

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3madc67agek2e

 

[HavokFour]

No window or scooter this time.

Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, officials say

Fanil Sarvarov was the head of the armed forces' operational training department, Russia's Investigative Committee said.

www.bbc.com

 

[RangerRay]

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare strikes again!

 

[RangerRay]

Looks like the Trump Administration may be unwinding Russian sanctions…no surprise.

Also, Ukrainian victories at sea and more on the frozen Russian assets imbroglio.

Weekend Update #164: Ukraine Is Winning The War At Sea

Europe: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; Is The Trump Administration Quietly Unwinding Sanctions On Russia?

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Is The Trump Administration Quietly Unwinding Sanctions On Russia?​

This update is already getting long, so one final short piece that will lead to something longer soon. As I’ve always believed that Trump is determined to help Putin and his anti-Russian stances are for show, to “con” people into not admitting the truth. As part of that, I always thought the that the US government under his watch would actually find ways to help the Russian war effort, This week the administration actually broke cover. In a story that did not receive nearly the amount of coverage it deserved, the Trump administration removed a range of sanctions on companies doing important trade with Russia. Here was how a story on the move started.

The United States has removed sanctions from several foreign companies previously accused of supplying equipment to Russia, including items linked to its defense and military-industrial sectors.

The changes were published on the US Treasury Department’s website on December 18, without any explanation for the move.

This kind of move jibes well with what we are seeing with US trade. Though Trump has initiated a trade war with much of the world, under his rule, US exports to some central Asian states and Turkey are up markedly—suspiciously so. Here are the figures for Uzbekistan.



Between Feb and Sept 2024, the US exported knowingly $223.6 millions of dollars of goods to Uzbekistan. The equivalent figure under Trump for 2025 was $319.9 million. This is almost a 50% percent leap in a very short period of time.

Something close to identical percentage wise has happened with US exports to Kyrgyzstan.



Likewise, US trade with Turkey (where some of the companies which saw their sanctions relaxed this week are based) also was up noticeably since Trump became President. In the case of Turkey, US exports under Trump were up by almost 25% between Feb-Sept 2025 when compared to the same period in 2024.



And all of this during a trade war?

Now, because of the US government shutdown, the figures have not been released since September. But already we have indications that under Trump, US trade that can help Russia has been up significantly. Instead of obsessing on the deliberately weak sanctions placed on Russian oil, we should consider the fact that Trump is actually helping undermine US sanctions on Russia. The step this week therefore might only confirm the reality that the US is helping Russia far more than people want to admit.

 

[RangerRay]

..

 

[daftandbarmy]

A Reserve of 1 million... now we're talkin'

Russia’s NATO neighbour raises reservist age limit to 65​

Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, on Monday signed legislation that keeps all citizens liable for military service in the reserve until the age of 65, the Finnish Ministry of Defence announced in a press release.

Previously, reservist obligations ended earlier for most service members, creating limits on how long trained personnel could be called upon in a crisis.

Security rethink​

The reform is tied directly to Finland’s broader effort to reinforce its defenses in a more uncertain regional environment.

Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said the goal is to raise the size of Finland’s reserve forces to one million by 2031.

Russia's NATO neighbour raises reservist age limit to 65

The law is part of a strategy to increase the military reserves to one million by 2031.

www.dagens.com

 

[HavokFour]

Witkoff continues being a major problem and Rubio getting left out of the loop, now with the added bonus of Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner being thrown into the mix.

Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio’s clashing diplomacy on Russia-Ukraine

Apart from disagreements about peace efforts in Ukraine, Witkoff has been at loggerheads with Rubio and State Department officials about the way he handles security.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Rifleman62]

You can watch this long documentary on YouTube. It was Canadian funded. Most of the material is of a Bn Medical unit with some CS. Near the end the Inf is ordered to attack and they know it is to their deaths. Faces of dread. Filmed in 2003 to the start of 2004.

Russians at War - Inside a Russian Battalion on the Front Lines in Ukraine (Full Documentary)

Russians at War is a rare, unauthorized look inside a Russian battalion during the invasion of Ukraine. Filmed by director Anastasia Trofimova, the documentary follows soldiers, medics, and newly drafted men as they move from the rear to some of the war’s deadliest front lines, including Krasny Liman and Bakhmut.Through candid conversations, frontline footage, and scenes of daily survival, the film reveals a complex portrait of the people fighting on Russia’s side: their motivations, fears, disillusionment, and the heavy toll of the conflict. From young conscripts to seasoned volunteers, from drone operators to medics retrieving the dead, Russians at War shows the human reality behind official narratives—exposing a world of confusion, loss, shifting beliefs, and the personal cost of a war many struggle to understand.Unauthorized and filmed at significant personal risk, the documentary offers a perspective rarely seen: Russian soldiers speaking freely about a war that has reshaped their lives, their families, and their country.

 

[HavokFour]

So prior to the strike on the sub, the Ukrainians had knocked out the only sub hunter in the Black Sea - Caspian region in a separate operation. This may also cause them to have to pull a replacement from the Arctic, Baltic, or Pacific regions.

Ukraine took out Russia's only submarine-hunter aircraft before historic Kilo-class sub strike (VIDEO) - Euromaidan Press

The SBU disabled Russia's only Il-38N submarine-hunting aircraft before launching the underwater drone that destroyed a Kilo-class submarine at Novorossiysk.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[HavokFour]

Unfortunately this is likely far too reasonable for two particular individuals.

Zelensky Unveils Revised 20-Point Peace Plan

The revised draft retains some iterations of the original 28 points – such as a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime forces – while dropping provisions including the waiver of all legal recourse for war crimes.

www.kyivpost.com

• Confirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty
• Non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine; monitoring on the contact line
• Security guarantees
• A peacetime cap on the Ukrainian military to 800,000 personnel
• The US, NATO and Europe will provide Ukraine with security guarantees based on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause; a new Russian invasion is to be met with a military response and renewed sanctions.
• Russia will enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws
• Ukraine will become an EU member at some point, with plans to fix the accession date
• A global development package to be determined in a separate investment agreement
• The creation of several funds to address recovery issues (goal: $800 billion)
• Acceleration of the free trade agreement between Ukraine and the US
• Ukraine’s nuclear-free status
• (Terms contested) Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: The US offers a trilateral arrangement, with the US as the chief manager; Kyiv offers to split it 50/50 between the US and Ukraine
• Educational programs in schools to promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures and to eliminate racism and prejudice
• (Terms contested) Territories. One option sees Russia withdrawing from Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv, while Ukraine holds its positions in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Russia demands Ukraine leave Donetsk, while the US proposes a compromise: a free economic zone. If the “hold positions” agreement fails, the free economic zone would require a referendum, and the entire document would then be subject to a vote
• Russia and Ukraine undertake not to change the agreements by force
• Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River and the Black Sea for commercial purposes. The Kinburn Spit will be demilitarized
• All-for-all prisoner exchange, return of civilians, children, and political prisoners
• Ukraine must hold elections soon after the agreement is signed
• This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored by a Peace Council headed by US President Donald Trump
• Once all parties agree to this agreement, a full ceasefire will come into effect immediately

 

[brihard]

Unfortunately this is likely far too reasonable for two particular individuals.

Zelensky Unveils Revised 20-Point Peace Plan

The revised draft retains some iterations of the original 28 points – such as a cap on Ukraine’s peacetime forces – while dropping provisions including the waiver of all legal recourse for war crimes.

www.kyivpost.com

Anyone else notice the specific inclusion of Ukraine's 'nuclear free status' in this one?

 

[HavokFour]

Anyone else notice the specific inclusion of Ukraine's 'nuclear free status' in this one?

As long as point 5 remains, watch point 11 completely disappear if that is one of the ones rejected. But also the way things are going there's a very good chance Poland might try to get their own bombs, pouring ice water on any ambitions of getting the empire back together.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Security guarantees going forward are not going to be any more reliable than the ones of the past.