Iran Super Thread- Merged
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OldSolduer
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Unfortunately civil wars tend to be the most brutal and bloody.
Oldgateboatdriver
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Well, in civil wars, both sides are fighting for their country, within the borders of their country, against an enemy who has "invaded" their country.
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Doesn't look like it's over.
Kurdish separatist group claims to have mounted ‘armed operations' in Iran to defend protesters
A representative of an Iranian Kurdish separatist group in Iraq says the group’s armed wing has launched attacks on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in retaliation for Tehran's violent crackdown on protesters.apnews.com
The blackout becoming permanent also might be a signal the regime is still in full panic mode.
Iran plans permanent break from global internet, say activists
Report claims unrestricted online access will be a ‘government privilege’, limited to individuals vetted by regimewww.theguardian.com
Just joined North Korea as an influencer.
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Hope the Kurds aren't counting on reliable help from U.S. & Co. - been stung on that front in the pastDoesn't look like it's over.
Kurdish separatist group claims to have mounted ‘armed operations' in Iran to defend protesters
A representative of an Iranian Kurdish separatist group in Iraq says the group’s armed wing has launched attacks on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in retaliation for Tehran's violent crackdown on protesters.
Meanwhile, this from an opinion piece in a source rated as generally left with "mixed" factuality that still has some points to consider.
Five Questions for Every Officer in Iran - The Globalist
The Iranian military is the only institution capable of bringing about the downfall of the Ayatollahs' regime. Five questions for every officer in Iran must ask himself.
www.theglobalist.com
Archive link here if original link doesn't work.
OldSolduer
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In war the first casualty is the truth.Hope the Kurds aren't counting on reliable help from U.S. & Co. - been stung on that front in the past
Meanwhile, this from an opinion piece in a source rated as generally left with "mixed" factuality that still has some points to consider.
View attachment 97928Five Questions for Every Officer in Iran - The Globalist
The Iranian military is the only institution capable of bringing about the downfall of the Ayatollahs' regime. Five questions for every officer in Iran must ask himself.
Archive link here if original link doesn't work.
Mills Bomb
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Trump says US ‘armada’ heading to Middle East as Iran death toll put above 5,000
US president says ‘we have a lot of ships’ going in that direction and that Washington is watching Iran closely
www.theguardian.com
Looks like it's back on.... maybe...
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daftandbarmy
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Trump says US ‘armada’ heading to Middle East as Iran death toll put above 5,000
US president says ‘we have a lot of ships’ going in that direction and that Washington is watching Iran closely
Looks like it's back on.... maybe...
This guy thinks so... and is very excited about all the planes!
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Discombobulated.
nypost.com
"Trump commented on the weapon when asked about reports this week that the Biden administration purchased a pulsed energy weapon suspected of being the type that caused “Havana Syndrome.”
"Not much is known about the weapon, but those reports followed on-the-ground accounts from Venezuela describing how Maduro’s gunmen were brought to their knees, “bleeding through the nose” and vomiting blood.
"One member of the deposed strongman’s team of guards recounted afterward that “suddenly all our radar systems shut down without any explanation.”
“The next thing we saw were drones, a lot of drones, flying over our positions. We didn’t know how to react,” he said, saying that helicopters then appeared — “barely eight” — carrying about 20 US troops into the area.
“The Discombobulator” then was aimed directly at Maduro’s defenders.
“At one point, they launched something; I don’t know how to describe it. It was like a very intense sound wave. Suddenly I felt like my head was exploding from the inside,” the witness said.
“We all started bleeding from the nose. Some were vomiting blood. We fell to the ground, unable to move. We couldn’t even stand up after that sonic weapon — or whatever it was.”
....
Eagle Claw Part Deux?
Exclusive | Trump reveals to The Post secret ‘discombobulator’ weapon was crucial to Venezuelan raid on Maduro
President Trump told The Post that a secret new weapon was essential to the surprise US raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
nypost.com
"Trump commented on the weapon when asked about reports this week that the Biden administration purchased a pulsed energy weapon suspected of being the type that caused “Havana Syndrome.”
"Not much is known about the weapon, but those reports followed on-the-ground accounts from Venezuela describing how Maduro’s gunmen were brought to their knees, “bleeding through the nose” and vomiting blood.
"One member of the deposed strongman’s team of guards recounted afterward that “suddenly all our radar systems shut down without any explanation.”
“The next thing we saw were drones, a lot of drones, flying over our positions. We didn’t know how to react,” he said, saying that helicopters then appeared — “barely eight” — carrying about 20 US troops into the area.
“The Discombobulator” then was aimed directly at Maduro’s defenders.
“At one point, they launched something; I don’t know how to describe it. It was like a very intense sound wave. Suddenly I felt like my head was exploding from the inside,” the witness said.
“We all started bleeding from the nose. Some were vomiting blood. We fell to the ground, unable to move. We couldn’t even stand up after that sonic weapon — or whatever it was.”
....
Eagle Claw Part Deux?
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Or a retro encabulator?
Sounds like potentially LRAD- long range acoustic device. That wouldn’t likely be tied to whatever caused the “Havana syndrome”; LRADs are pretty well known. Basically a super intense blast of focused sound waves.Discombobulated.
Exclusive | Trump reveals to The Post secret ‘discombobulator’ weapon was crucial to Venezuelan raid on Maduro
President Trump told The Post that a secret new weapon was essential to the surprise US raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
"Trump commented on the weapon when asked about reports this week that the Biden administration purchased a pulsed energy weapon suspected of being the type that caused “Havana Syndrome.”
"Not much is known about the weapon, but those reports followed on-the-ground accounts from Venezuela describing how Maduro’s gunmen were brought to their knees, “bleeding through the nose” and vomiting blood.
"One member of the deposed strongman’s team of guards recounted afterward that “suddenly all our radar systems shut down without any explanation.”
“The next thing we saw were drones, a lot of drones, flying over our positions. We didn’t know how to react,” he said, saying that helicopters then appeared — “barely eight” — carrying about 20 US troops into the area.
“The Discombobulator” then was aimed directly at Maduro’s defenders.
“At one point, they launched something; I don’t know how to describe it. It was like a very intense sound wave. Suddenly I felt like my head was exploding from the inside,” the witness said.
“We all started bleeding from the nose. Some were vomiting blood. We fell to the ground, unable to move. We couldn’t even stand up after that sonic weapon — or whatever it was.”
....
Eagle Claw Part Deux?
Doubtful.
1) What countries are going to give them basing and or transit rights for a weeks long air campaign? For British aircraft, from Cyprus they have to go through Syria and Iraq, possibly even refuel over those countries. Without permission. This is expeditionary ops that even Americans don't normally feel comfortable with. Only the Israelis do this.
2) Regime has had time to prepare and disperse. Sustained bombing may not be enough to force change. Might have been different two weeks ago.
I'll be happy if the regime gets delivered high speed explosive air mail. But I suspect some coercion and then face saving deal for Trump. I really hope I'm wrong. Would be really happy to be wrong here.
The Saudis have to be willing to risk their oilfields. The Emiratis are risking their cities as commercial hubs in the Middle East. Neither of them will care about the Iranian human rights or even geopolitical advantage for regime change. What exactly do they get out of it?
And without those bases, this becomes a much harder fight.
And without those bases, this becomes a much harder fight.
I think the strategy would be to disrupt the regime such that the populace feels emboldened to conduct the overthrow. It needn’t be an outright defeat through aerial bombing; most of the work will be done by the Iranian population themselves. The regime forces need to have their C2 broken, key forces neutralized if they mass, and essentially be stopped from preventing the capture of key sites and institutions. I think the boulder would roll very quickly. I have little doubt some various special operations/clandestine forces would be on the ground to strike a bit more directly and surgically where needed to enhance effects. I still believe the U.S. will want to physically secure and control key nuclear sites.
There's 40 000 fewer of the bravest Iranians who would do that, today. That's my point.
And at this point can they trust the US to be persistent? They start with the street battles during the bombings and the regime fires off since TBMs towards Saudi oil fields and ASCMs towards tankers in the Gulf. Oil price skyrockets overnight. Would Trump still press or would he negotiate? My bet is that $90 oil would be enough to bring out TACO Trump. And if mildly successful attacks by Iran may see oil prices run much higher.
15 years ago, I played red team on a course given a scenario of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. My conclusions were: 1) the Israelis couldn't get to the nuclear facilities without the US. 2) that the best way to get the US to cave or at least impose a cost was closing the strait and hitting oil fields. If it was obvious to me then....
Nobody wins re-election with $90 oil. Americans don't care about photo ops with Iranian nukes. Not even to put with $4 gas.
