OldSolduer
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Iran Super Thread- Merged
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Pakistan’s PM is already non-specifically calling out ceasefire violations.
Already reports that Iran is calling out Israel ceasefire violations in Lebanon and halting traffic in the strait.
But the U.S. and Israel say the ceasefire deal does not include Lebanon.
Rocky start to the ceasefire…
Already reports that Iran is calling out Israel ceasefire violations in Lebanon and halting traffic in the strait.
But the U.S. and Israel say the ceasefire deal does not include Lebanon.
Rocky start to the ceasefire…
Quirky
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Ok, well this answers my "what if they don't pay?" question.
This is supposed to be what open looks like?
Iran threatens to ‘destroy’ ships that pass through Strait of Hormuz — despite cease-fire pact
Iran’s battered navy has reportedly warned foreign ships on Wednesday that they will be “destroyed” if they attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission from Tehran.nypost.com
EDIT: Trump is also trotting out his favorite word again.
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that imports from countries supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs with no exemptions, threatening the move just hours after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with Tehran.www.reuters.com
Trump should retract his statement from yesterday and rain fire on this cancer of a country.
daftandbarmy
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I'm just loving the fact that Pakistan is proving a paragon of international diplomatic virtue... seriously.
HavokFour
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In the immortal words of Crap Game from “Kelly’s Heores,” “a DEAL deal … Maybe the guy’s a Republican?”
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Of course, he wants a cut…
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Unreal -
So some rough, back of napkin math - if 80 ships a day leave the Straits of Hormoz (150 ships traverse it, so I'm speculating that approximately 80 leave a day), at 2m USD per ship that 160m USD a day. Lets go with 350 days a year to round things out, 350d/yr * 160md = 56 Billion USD/yr / 2 is 28 Billion USD a year to Trump, I mean the US and 28 Billion USD to Iran.
Everyone ok with that?
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Who is everyone? The parties at the negotiating table?
An amusing thing about negotiating tables is that the price of admission is usually to have joined one of the sides in the fighting. It'll be pretty funny if some of the countries outside looking in have approximately the same expressions on their faces as Canadian voters watching an NDP government negotiate with public unions.
I think they’re lining Hegseth up to lubricate the bottom of a bus.
HavokFour
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What I'm thinking. I also was off target in posting and moved it to where it actually meant to land.
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The world - is the rest of the world ok with that potential cost that they will have to bear.
The Strait of Hormuz is owned by no one - its always been under the Freedom of Navigation for the last 150-200 odd years. If this 'tolling' is allowed to occur then precedence has been made for other parts of the world and why would they not taken advantage to this.
England and France can charge every ship entering the English Channel.
Denmark and Sweden can charge every ship entering the Baltic
Turkey every ship entering the Black Sea
Spain and Morocco every ship entering the Straits of Gibraltar
daftandbarmy
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Apparently the rate is $1 per barrel of oil paid in Crypto. Trump (and family) get a bit cut of anything from World Liberty Financial and part of his good relations with Pakistan is driven in part by a Pakistani crypto bro, so tolling the Strait and Trump (and/or the Board of Peace, other Trump allies, etc.) getting a cut seems like a reasonable outcome. I wouldn't be surprised if the final result for Iran is better off than the previous nuclear deal, but Trump get's to make money off of it. Depends on how firm Iran was to stand up for Lebanon I guess, and what Israel is willing to accept.
No idea what the price of admission for non oil carriers is though.
Considerations for most people and countries, I don't think Trump himself particularly cares. The bigger question is how much the gulf states will argue with him over it or if they'd be willing to accept it in order to return to business as normal (or near enough).
Gets better. That mostly (or completely) goes to the regime (mostly IRGC). People in Iran will still be broke. Every shipment of oil, gas and fertilizer through the Strait will fund their terrorism everywhere. Something, something 5D chess.
Hilarious to me that the Gulf countries cozied up to the Trump family and pledged so many investments in the US, for this to be the outcome.
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This Twitter account has been posting quite reliably on “where are things exploding in Iran?” for the entirety of the conflict as well as coverage of the unrest of a few months ago. It looks like in the pst few hours there have been attacks on multiple locations in Iran including near Tehran.
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Probably not. When various countries decided the conflict didn't involve them - leaving aside their reasons, most of which were completely sound - they most likely didn't anticipate the parties to the conflict fitting one of the two following descriptions:
- one wants to toll the Strait, and the other doesn't care
- one wants to toll the Strait, and the other might take a cut, too
It involves them, whether they thought so or not. What are they going to do about it?
It's somewhere between intriguing and funny that one of the criteria for getting involved in future crises might be "what's going to be on the peace table that is in my realm of interests"?
