Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

What is it you want out of the US administration?

Competence, coherence, calmness, rationality, maturity, multilateralism, and; international security policy choices based on these things.

Basically the factors that contributed over many decades to a U.S.-led western world order, and whose discard or disregard now weakens and threatens same.

 

[torg003]

Sanity??

Come on....that's asking a bit too much.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What is it you want out of the US administration?

Are you asking after character, or policy?

 

[QV]

Policy - specifically to Iran - what level of intervention and what outcome?

 

[brihard]

NBC is quoting an unnamed senior administration official as saying Trump’s trying to get Netenyahu to curb attacks on Lebanon in order to save the ceasefire.

Israel's attacks devastate Beirut and threaten U.S.-Iran ceasefire

Mounting global condemnation of Israel on Thursday was matched by confusion over whether Lebanon was part of the truce deal agreed to by President Donald Trump.

www.nbcnews.com

This far the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed. There has been no increase in shipping through it since the purported ceasefire was announced.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2042186791755583877

Fortunately, what I’m not seeing so far this morning is reports of attacks overnight. I can’t say there were none, but I’ve seen nothing yet, in sharp contrast with yesterday. Hopefully we see things actually now winding down to a state that allows for meaningful and effective negotiations and restoration of normal trade activity. Because each day that this drags on and the strait stays shut, large parts of the world are heading off a cliff in terms of petrochemical supplies. Even if the strait opened today it would be weeks before cargoes started arriving in ports at the other end.

 

[Lumber]

Competence, coherence, calmness, rationality, maturity, multilateralism, and; international security policy choices based on these things.

Pfffff those are just buzzwords designed to blind you and hide the corruption of the establishment elite.

 

[brihard]

Pfffff those are just buzzwords designed to blind you and hide the corruption of the establishment elite.

I’m sorry I was so woke. I’ll do better.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Let's see what kind of response this gets out of Trump

Keir Starmer: 'I'm fed up' with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz during the war with U.S. and Israel, creating an oil supply crunch and sending global energy prices soaring.

www.cnbc.com

Keir Starmer: ‘I’m fed up’ with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs​

“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy, businesses’ bills go up and down on energy, because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world,” Starmer said.

 

[Mills Bomb]

Let's see what kind of response this gets out of Trump

Keir Starmer: 'I'm fed up' with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz during the war with U.S. and Israel, creating an oil supply crunch and sending global energy prices soaring.

www.cnbc.com

Keir Starmer: ‘I’m fed up’ with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs​

“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy, businesses’ bills go up and down on energy, because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world,” Starmer said.

I mean, realistically, isn't everyone fed up with it?

At least the political class can whether the storm, but us average folks aren't exactly going through normal consistent times. It's been non-stop inflation and high-energy costs since essentially before the pandemic, then add in all the tariffs screwing our businesses, layoffs, etc.

The middle powers like Canada, UK, Australia, etc. basically got stomped by the huge wave of BS that has happened in recent years.

 

[HavokFour]

NBC is quoting an unnamed senior administration official as saying Trump’s trying to get Netenyahu to curb attacks on Lebanon in order to save the ceasefire.

Israel's attacks devastate Beirut and threaten U.S.-Iran ceasefire

Mounting global condemnation of Israel on Thursday was matched by confusion over whether Lebanon was part of the truce deal agreed to by President Donald Trump.

www.nbcnews.com

This far the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed. There has been no increase in shipping through it since the purported ceasefire was announced.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2042186791755583877

Fortunately, what I’m not seeing so far this morning is reports of attacks overnight. I can’t say there were none, but I’ve seen nothing yet, in sharp contrast with yesterday. Hopefully we see things actually now winding down to a state that allows for meaningful and effective negotiations and restoration of normal trade activity. Because each day that this drags on and the strait stays shut, large parts of the world are heading off a cliff in terms of petrochemical supplies. Even if the strait opened today it would be weeks before cargoes started arriving in ports at the other end.

Can't imagine why he would want to stop. He needs Iranian retaliation.

Halt to Iran attacks means Netanyahu's corruption trial will resume on Sunday

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial ‌will resume on Sunday, the courts' spokesperson said on Thursday, hours after Israel lifted a state of emergency imposed over its war with Iran.

www.reuters.com

 

[HavokFour]

The President is now anti-toll (or wants his cut).

 

[OldSolduer]

The President is now anti-toll (or wants his cut).


View attachment 99653

A troll who doesn't like tolls...

 

[McG]

Trolls prefer tolls on bridges.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Hopefully we see things actually now winding down to a state that allows for meaningful and effective negotiations and restoration of normal trade activity. Because each day that this drags on and the strait stays shut, large parts of the world are heading off a cliff in terms of petrochemical supplies. Even if the strait opened today it would be weeks before cargoes started arriving in ports at the other end.

You are not going to get meaningful and effective negotiations with the Islamic regime. Their previous economic model is in shambles, they are going to find ways to exhort monies from the ships transiting. That may be ok with the companies for a short time, but eventually the bill will get to big and the Islamic nutbars will be causing havoc either there , at home or in the region.

 

[Furniture]

You are not going to get meaningful and effective negotiations with the Islamic regime. Their previous economic model is in shambles, they are going to find ways to exhort monies from the ships transiting. That may be ok with the companies for a short time, but eventually the bill will get to big and the Islamic nutbars will be causing havoc either there , at home or in the region.

100%. As I have said multiple times, there is no way this ends with Iran holding total control of the straits.

Iran is the mortal enemy of the other Gulf States based on religious and ethnic quarrels dating back centuries. Once the Gulf States have had enough they will take-up the fight themselves.

 

[OldSolduer]

Trolls prefer tolls on bridges.

Billy goats hate trolls

 

[daftandbarmy]

100%. As I have said multiple times, there is no way this ends with Iran holding total control of the straits.

Iran is the mortal enemy of the other Gulf States based on religious and ethnic quarrels dating back centuries. Once the Gulf States have had enough they will take-up the fight themselves.

It's complicated, but probably not ...

The Iran War Is Uncovering the Weakness in U.S.-Gulf Ties​

Neither the Abraham Accords nor the presence of large U.S. bases are enough to protect Arab Gulf states.


A few years ago, Saudi Arabia—much like other Gulf states—viewed Iran as a major threat to the Gulf region, because of both its military action and its support for proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Saudi leaders wanted U.S. protection against this threat in the form of advanced U.S. weaponry, a peaceful nuclear program, and a defense treaty that would commit Washington to protecting Saudi Arabia from external threats—mainly an Iranian one. But the American leadership demurred.

The Joe Biden administration wanted Saudi officials to sign a peace treaty with Israel as a condition for accommodating these requests. When Tehran hit Saudi oil installations in 2019 without Washington coming to its rescue, Riyadh decided it was time to indirectly poke Washington by seeking closer ties with China. That got Washington to change its position and eventually commit to working with Saudi leaders on a peaceful nuclear program and selling them advanced U.S. weaponry.

Riyadh also decided that if Washington was not going to come to its rescue, its best option was to try to reach some form of accommodation with Tehran. The past few years witnessed a serious thaw in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Whatever goodwill had been built up is now out of the window.

The Iran War Is Uncovering the Weakness in U.S.-Gulf Ties

Neither the Abraham Accords nor the presence of large U.S. bases are enough to protect Arab Gulf states.

carnegieendowment.org

 

[Furniture]

It's complicated, but probably not ...

The Iran War Is Uncovering the Weakness in U.S.-Gulf Ties​

Neither the Abraham Accords nor the presence of large U.S. bases are enough to protect Arab Gulf states.


A few years ago, Saudi Arabia—much like other Gulf states—viewed Iran as a major threat to the Gulf region, because of both its military action and its support for proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Saudi leaders wanted U.S. protection against this threat in the form of advanced U.S. weaponry, a peaceful nuclear program, and a defense treaty that would commit Washington to protecting Saudi Arabia from external threats—mainly an Iranian one. But the American leadership demurred.

The Joe Biden administration wanted Saudi officials to sign a peace treaty with Israel as a condition for accommodating these requests. When Tehran hit Saudi oil installations in 2019 without Washington coming to its rescue, Riyadh decided it was time to indirectly poke Washington by seeking closer ties with China. That got Washington to change its position and eventually commit to working with Saudi leaders on a peaceful nuclear program and selling them advanced U.S. weaponry.

Riyadh also decided that if Washington was not going to come to its rescue, its best option was to try to reach some form of accommodation with Tehran. The past few years witnessed a serious thaw in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Whatever goodwill had been built up is now out of the window.

The Iran War Is Uncovering the Weakness in U.S.-Gulf Ties

Neither the Abraham Accords nor the presence of large U.S. bases are enough to protect Arab Gulf states.

carnegieendowment.org

The leadership is insulated enough for now, but give it a few months of being forced to pay Tehran for the privelage of passing through the straits, and I suspect there will be a change of heart.

UAE, KSA, Kuwait, etc., tolerate America to keep Iran in check. Seeing America humbled plays into their internal politics for now.... In 6 months when they still have to bow and scrape to the Persians just to sell their oil, I suspect their tune will change. Just as I'm sure the EU and others are enjoying watching Trump TACO for now, but when Iran dictates their energy securitys unchallenged, they will change their tune as well.

I'm convinced 90% of the lack of buy-in for the Iran war as it stands is just based on wanting to spite Trump, and not on a deep analysis of the cost/benefit of removing Iran as a threat. All politics are petty, even if most dress it up in fancy words.

 

[Altair]

The leadership is insulated enough for now, but give it a few months of being forced to pay Tehran for the privelage of passing through the straits, and I suspect there will be a change of heart.

UAE, KSA, Kuwait, etc., tolerate America to keep Iran in check. Seeing America humbled plays into their internal politics for now.... In 6 months when they still have to bow and scrape to the Persians just to sell their oil, I suspect their tune will change. Just as I'm sure the EU and others are enjoying watching Trump TACO for now, but when Iran dictates their energy securitys unchallenged, they will change their tune as well.

I'm convinced 90% of the lack of buy-in for the Iran war as it stands is just based on wanting to spite Trump, and not on a deep analysis of the cost/benefit of removing Iran as a threat. All politics are petty, even if most dress it up in fancy words.

Assuming you're correct, what can the gulf States do that the might of the US Navy was unable to unwilling to do?

 

[Furniture]

Assuming you're correct, what can the gulf States do that the might of the US Navy was unable to unwilling to do?

Stay, take losses, escort ships though...

You can't fight a war with zero losses. This is why the West loses every war it chooses to engage in for sport, or to appeal to some fickle domestic sentiment. We have zero appetite for losses, because it looks bad in the newspapers and upsets civilians at their breakfast.

America hasn't even tried to push a convoy through, because it doesn't care enough to do so, and it has little of urgency on the line. That is not the case for the Gulf States, if the straits don't open, they will wither and die. If Iran/Persia/Shiites are seen as winning, internal politics will see the rulers overthrown.

I get that it's fun to sit in Canada, watch Trump dangling, and have a laugh, but an resurgent theocratic Iran is bad for everyone but Iranian theocratic leaders.