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[PrairieFella]

Length of new car ownership plays into this.

A new car bought in 2026 will be held on average for 9yrs. Owners of top Japanese cars tend to hold onto their cars for 11 to 15yrs.

I bought a hybrid Corolla in the summer of 2024 and I currently average around 42.3m/g with it. Or, it you prefer metric, 5.3L/100km gas consumption. Realistically I will hold onto this car for 12-14yrs. Dollars to doughnuts in 2036, 2038, my next car will be a Plugin-EV or an EV by that timeframe. I will also be 67-69yrs old by then and my driving habits/needs will have changed by then.

Part of the reason my first ever new car was a Subaru. Famous for staying on the road for a decade plus. If you dont need a truck, Japanese made cars are pretty well superior to North American cars. I cant think of a North American hatchback car with what amounts to 4-wheel drive, 5ish L/100km and a lot of good features for less than 40,000 bucks.

 

[ytz]

Length of new car ownership plays into this.

Not really. See the video I posted above comparing different countries. There's a whole lot of variation on why some countries move faster or slower on adoption. In our case, we don't even get offered the range of models that the average European or Australian has available. Obviously if the cheapest EV you can get is $50k after taxes and fees, there will be slower adoption.

 

[ytz]

Part of the reason my first ever new car was a Subaru. Famous for staying on the road for a decade plus. If you dont need a truck, Japanese made cars are pretty well superior to North American cars. I cant think of a North American hatchback car with what amounts to 4-wheel drive, 5ish L/100km and a lot of good features for less than 40,000 bucks.

Sedans in general are really struggling, in the developed world. In 2019, Honda sold over 300k Civics worldwide. Last year 155k. Canada went from 60k Civics in 2019 to 31k last year.

Unfortunately the new car market is shifting more and more to older and wealthier buyers who care less about fuel economy in general. They want efficiency gains plowed into size. They move up in size category. Or demand that the same model itself get bigger from generation to generation. This is basically killing models like the classic hot hatch.

 

[dapaterson]

Sedans in general are really struggling, in the developed world. In 2019, Honda sold over 300k Civics worldwide. Last year 155k. Canada went from 60k Civics in 2019 to 31k last year.

Unfortunately the new car market is shifting more and more to older and wealthier buyers who care less about fuel economy in general. They want efficiency gains plowed into size. They move up in size category. Or demand that the same model itself get bigger from generation to generation. This is basically killing models like the classic hot hatch.

And increasing fatalities for other road users.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Not really. See the video I posted above comparing different countries. There's a whole lot of variation on why some countries move faster or slower on adoption. In our case, we don't even get offered the range of models that the average European or Australian has available. Obviously if the cheapest EV you can get is $50k after taxes and fees, there will be slower adoption.

Not so sure.

In Europe leasing is alot more common than in Canada (60% vs 25ish%). If I lease an EV for 3-5yrs and then turn it in, I've got zero concerns about battery life span or reliability. In Europe EV's are leased at around 80% of all EV sales.

Also, here in Canada, Japanese cars have by far the most options for Hybrids, Plugin's and EV's than any over traditional car manufacturers. They make up around 30-35% of all car sales now in Canada. Japanese manufacturers have only about 12-15% sales in Europe. Factor in the extra 4+yrs of holding onto a Japanese car in Canada vs a non-Japanese car and all this plays into it.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Same place electricity came from in the 70s, 80s and 90s when air conditioning became more common. We grew the grid to meet that demand. And EVs are generally speaking not much more than a residential AC unit, if you're charging at home overnight. We're also growing the grid for things like data centres. So I don't get why people worry about this. As long as there is demand, the market will supply it.

I was intimately involved in 4 large hydro projects, 20+ small hydro's , several wind farms and couple of tidal projects. They are far more complicated than people make them out to be and many do not succeed for a variety of reasons. You hear a lot of announcements, but many will not get to the point of power production.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

No one really knows what the used market for EV and PHEV's is going to look like. The current generation of Telsa reaching the used market have a battery design that is prone to failure after about 12 years. The price that the third owner is willing to pay is going to dictate what the 2nd owner will be willing to pay. Also if the insurance companies detect a trend in older EV car fires, then insuring them may become unaffordable or difficult. If they can get away from lithium-ion batteries, that issue might go away.

Plus as EV/PHEV sales grow the government is going to have to pull the incentives (They should pull them now in my opinion) and the need to collect road tax from them is also going to be on the table.

 

[PrairieFella]

No one really knows what the used market for EV and PHEV's is going to look like. The current generation of Telsa reaching the used market have a battery design that is prone to failure after about 12 years. The price that the third owner is willing to pay is going to dictate what the 2nd owner will be willing to pay. Also if the insurance companies detect a trend in older EV car fires, then insuring them may become unaffordable or difficult. If they can get away from lithium-ion batteries, that issue might go away.

Plus as EV/PHEV sales grow the government is going to have to pull the incentives (They should pull them now in my opinion) and the need to collect road tax from them is also going to be on the table.

Which project is at risk of not being built in your opinion?

 

[ytz]

I was intimately involved in 4 large hydro projects, 20+ small hydro's , several wind farms and couple of tidal projects. They are far more complicated than people make them out to be and many do not succeed for a variety of reasons. You hear a lot of announcements, but many will not get to the point of power production.

I don't deny the projects are complicated. But meeting demand is just a market function. Not a question of how complex a given project is. Also, we're in a world where 85% of all new power generation added are renewables. A substantial portion of which is solar. Sure, not all need is going to be met by solar. But it's getting easier for a farmer to meet some of their needs with a turbine, or a big box store to meet a lot of their needs with solar on the roof, etc. Projects like that are not particularly complex. But in the aggregate they will substantially reduce the demand that has to go much larger centralized generation of the kind you worked on. Behind the meter generation is only going in one direction.....

 

[ytz]

No one really knows what the used market for EV and PHEV's is going to look like. The current generation of Telsa reaching the used market have a battery design that is prone to failure after about 12 years. The price that the third owner is willing to pay is going to dictate what the 2nd owner will be willing to pay.

Not sure where you are getting this from. But I have found nothing that says Tesla batteries are prone to failure after 12 years. Tesla does warranty the pack and drive unit for 240 000 km. I suspect that's where this 12 years number comes from. But there's now millions of Teslas on the road. And plenty used for high mileage applications like taxis. Not a lot of evidence of catastrophic failure with age. Just degradation of capacity over time.

The biggest hit on used EVs is the tech curve. A Nissan Leaf went from a 30 kWh battery pack with no Thermal Management System, and a 50 kW charging speed in Gen 1 to a 75 kWh battery pack with TMS and 150 kW charging speed in Gen 3. The later Generation also has an entirely different charging port, now that charging has standardized on NACS, where Gen 1 used ChadeMo which is increasingly going away. Unlike gas cars, the generational difference with EVs is substantial which is why early EVs depreciated substantially. But just the like smartphones, the tech curve is flattening out as they mature. A Gen 5 Nissan Leaf is not going to be as much of a jump from today's Gen 3, than that Gen 3 was from Gen 1.

On the battery degradation front, there are now services that will certify battery capacity to make sure buyers know the condition of what they are buying. I don't think there's much risk in buying any EV that was made post 2020. The battery chemistries are better. Pack capacities are higher. Modern higher voltage architectures with thermal management systems for the batteries. And post 2025 basically every car is going to the NACS standard. So that last hurdle is also solved.

Also if the insurance companies detect a trend in older EV car fires, then insuring them may become unaffordable or difficult. If they can get away from lithium-ion batteries, that issue might go away.

EVs in general have lower fire risks than gas and diesel cars, by orders of magnitude. They are harder to extinguish though. So they make for more spectacular news and Facebook coverage. If insurance companies care that much about fire risk, I assure you, they'll be far more likely to come for your gas car before an EV. Actuaries don't get duped by social media.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Early Telsa batteries used a membrane to isolate the cells. Battery restorers note that the membrane begins to fail at around 12 years and requires the battery to be completely opened up to replace it and any affected cells. I don't think Telsa uses the same battery construction, so that issue might only be with earlier gen batteries.

As for insurance companies , yes they will will look at data and risk. Ford has a warning to vehicle owners in Europe and Canada to limit charging of PHEV due to fire risks. You can bet the insurance companies are watching stuff like that with concern.

 

[ytz]

Early Telsa batteries used a membrane to isolate the cells. Battery restorers note that the membrane begins to fail at around 12 years and requires the battery to be completely opened up to replace it and any affected cells. I don't think Telsa uses the same battery construction, so that issue might only be with earlier gen batteries.

What exactly is "early"? Which model years?

And given that the Model 3 and Model Y are what really grew Tesla sales, the percentage of those "early" batteries are going to be a single digit percentage at this point. I decided to check with Gemini. Being generous and suggesting that everything pre-Model 3 first delivery in 2017, is defined as "early", Tesla had 230 700 sales. This is 2.37% of all Teslas sold to date.

Ford has a warning to vehicle owners in Europe and Canada to limit charging of PHEV due to fire risks.

Sounds like a Ford problem. Not a PHEV problem.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Digging into it, the Early 18650 Packs (2012–2016 Model S & X): Coolant & Valve Membranes affecting roughly 140,000 in the US and Canada. Telsa quoted $16,000-22,000 USD to replace the battery.

People like myself do not buy new vehicles, so the condition of used vehicles is far more interesting to me than their new status. The majority of EV vehicles over 10 years old will be Leafs and Teslas. followed by Ford and Mitsubishi models.

 

[Halifax Tar]

As for insurance companies , yes they will will look at data and risk. Ford has a warning to vehicle owners in Europe and Canada to limit charging of PHEV due to fire risks. You can bet the insurance companies are watching stuff like that with concern.

You know what doesnt have this probelm ?

My:

 

[captloadie]

Digging into it, the Early 18650 Packs (2012–2016 Model S & X): Coolant & Valve Membranes affecting roughly 140,000 in the US and Canada. Telsa quoted $16,000-22,000 USD to replace the battery.

People like myself do not buy new vehicles, so the condition of used vehicles is far more interesting to me than their new status. The majority of EV vehicles over 10 years old will be Leafs and Teslas. followed by Ford and Mitsubishi models.

I'm curious where that stat comes from. My searching has indicated that only approximately 95,000 Tesla S and X models were sold in North America during that time frame. That number is closer to the Global sales of those two models, and that would indicate every single vehicle needed a battery pack replacement, which isn't the actual case.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I'm curious where that stat comes from. My searching has indicated that only approximately 95,000 Tesla S and X models were sold in North America during that time frame. That number is closer to the Global sales of those two models, and that would indicate every single vehicle needed a battery pack replacement, which isn't the actual case.

Federal Register :: Request Access

www.federalregister.gov

 

[ytz]

So that's 1.5% of Teslas sold.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Battery failure rates for Tesla
2012 Model S: Around 15% failure rate.
2013 Model S: Around 8.5% failure rate.
2015 Model S: Around 3.5% failure rate

From Reddit:

2012 (launch year)

• Failure Rate: High (est. ~15% of vehicles)
• Notes: First-generation Model S (2012). Although there is very limited production data, the early pack design had significant issues (e.g., moisture ingress, cell faults). Many failures occurred within the 8-year warranty period, although some packs failed just after the warranty expired, leading to costly out-of-warranty replacements.

2013

• Failure Rate: 8.5%
• Notes: Model S (first full year of production). Early battery designs were prone to failure (e.g., BMS_u029 error due to dying cells), often requiring a complete pack replacement. Most were replaced under Tesla’s warranty coverage, but several packs also reached the end of their life near or after the warranty period.

2014

• Failure Rate: 7.3%
• Notes: Model S. Improved over 2013, but still has an elevated failure rate. Tesla implemented some design tweaks; however, several percent of the 2014 builds required pack replacements. Failures were typically covered under the 8-year battery warranty.

2015

• Failure Rate: 3.5%
• Notes: Model S (and Model X introduced late 2015). This year saw a noticeable drop in failures as Tesla refined the pack design. The early 2015 Model S packs occasionally failed, but by late 2015, the Model X launch had adopted the updated pack design and experienced very few issues. Most 2015 pack failures occurred in warranty.

2016

• Failure Rate: <1%
• Notes: Model S/X. Significant improvement: Tesla “solved” the Model S pack issues by mid-2015, so 2016-built cars have an order-of-magnitude lower failure rate. Pack failures became quite rare (well below 1% of vehicles). Nearly all incidents were early-life failures covered by warranty.

2017

• Failure Rate: <0.5%
• Notes: Model S/X (mature design) and first Model 3 units (late 2017). No widespread pack problems – only isolated cases. Virtually all pack replacements were in warranty. (Note: 2017 overall EV stats spiked to ~11% due to Chevy Bolt recall, but Tesla-specific failures remained under 0.5%.)

2018

• Failure Rate: <0.3%
• Notes: Model S/X/3. Tesla’s fleet-wide battery reliability by 2018 was excellent – only a few out of thousands of cars might need pack replacement. Any rare failures were almost always handled under warranty.

2019

• Failure Rate: <0.3%
• Notes: Model S/X/3. Continued trend of extremely low failure rates. No known systemic issues; complete pack failures were exceedingly rare and covered by warranty or goodwill replacements.

2020

• Failure Rate: <0.1% (nearly 0%)
• Notes: Model S/X/3/Y (Model Y introduced in 2020). Pack failures remained practically negligible. Apart from isolated defects or accident damage, no significant share of 2020-built Teslas required battery pack replacement.

2021

• Failure Rate: <0.1% (nearly 0%)
• Notes: All Models. Tesla’s newer packs (including refreshed S/X and newer 3/Y) show virtually zero inherent failure rate in normal use. Any pack replacements were rare one-off cases, invariably within warranty.

2022

• Failure Rate: <0.1% (nearly 0%)
• Notes: All Models. No meaningful incidence of pack failure outside of manufacturing anomalies. The vast majority of 2022 Teslas have had no battery issues; any that did were replaced under warranty.

2023 (to-date)

• Failure Rate: <0.1% (nearly 0%)
• Notes: All Models. Pack failures are essentially <1 in 1000 vehicles. Tesla’s latest batteries are highly reliable; almost all 2023-built cars remain on their original packs with no reported failures (the warranty covers any early defects).

Tesla are getting much more reliable, but if you are looking for a used car in the 12 year and older, I would still be cautious and look at the year ratings.

 

[ytz]

Buying a 12 yr old EV is pointless. Those were among the first mass market EVs. And like I pointed out above, not even a substantial part of Teslas sold. Why not just stick to 2018 or later when the industry and technology began to mature and Tesla itself was beyond first generation tech?

Applying a 12 year screen without context is pointless. Unless you're buying it for hobby. When the average age of vehicles in Canada is 11 years and the average life of vehicles in Canada is 13 years, using 12 yrs as your cut line seems masochistic.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Buying a 12 yr old EV is pointless. Those were among the first mass market EVs. And like I pointed out above, not even a substantial part of Teslas sold. Why not just stick to 2018 or later when the industry and technology began to mature and Tesla itself was beyond first generation tech?

Applying a 12 year screen without context is pointless. Unless you're buying it for hobby. When the average age of vehicles in Canada is 11 years and the average life of vehicles in Canada is 13 years, using 12 yrs as your cut line seems masochistic.

Not everyone like getting into debt to buy cars, in fact there is a growing demand for older simpler cars, there is a strong argument that vehicles that offered a good mix of reliability, features, price peaked around 2006 and reliability is trending downward.