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I meant follow where the pieces went.
If you want to hammer someone’s S&T folks, easy way is to give them a breadcrumb.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
If you want to hammer someone’s S&T folks, easy way is to give them a breadcrumb.
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Often wondered if there were more than one group in charge. Any info?
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It seems the IRGC have been fully in charge for many years, but were content to be behind the curtain, while the Clerics and politicians performed for the public. While there are factions within, and those have been disrupted and reformed by the killing of leaders, it seems the velvet glove is off and all that remains is the Iron Fist of the IRGC, who are quite happy to machine gun their own people. Unlike the Shah who refused to.
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The IRGC focused on a mosaic defense system. RUSI had some good podcasts last month - and while some info is stale — the point still exists is no one is really charge, and no one trusts anyone.
The IRCG has tried to rebuild C2 lines, but often only to allow the USAF or USN to take out a segment.
The Shah had thousands murdered in the name of regime stability. The IRGC adopted his Secret Police, almost intact - all they did is grow beards and continue the murder.
Don’t think for one minute anyone in power in the area has clean hands
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Your looking at 3,000ish by the Shah over the whole period of unrest. The IRGC beat that tenfold in one day by all accounts. I take the intelligence apparatus switching hands intact with a bag of salt. While the structure might remain the same, the majority of the mid and upper personal would likley not survive the transition and the smarter ones fled in time. I suspect even the ones who did defect, were never trusted and disposed of once they could be replaced.
PrairieFella
Army.ca Veteran
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Dictator A mercilessly slaughtered less people than Dictator B!
The only good timeline is one where Mossadegh was left alone.
The only good timeline is one where Mossadegh was left alone.
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Assuming he survives his own people. Anyone looking to change the status quo either slowly or quickly suffered in that era. Granted Iran was more stable than Iraq, which went from a province, to a Mandate and then a proto-country.
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SAVAK was one of the biggest causes of the Revolution. Murder, Rape, torture more torture and lots more torture, as well as assassinations out of state.
SAVAK actually taught torture classes to some of the neighbors.
Took them a few days.
There are some interesting stories about how everything shook out. SAVAK was disbanded immediately, but a lot of its 5k personnel got recalled.
1) It’s hard to make a secret police entity overnight - authoritarian governments need to keep tabs on folks.
2) The Islamic Republic needed the foreign network to continue killing folks the Iranian government didn’t like outside of Iran.
3) The Deputy Director joined the Revolution and pretty much took most of his folks lock stock and barrel across.
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Yes I read about that, the foreign directorate likley did ok with the Iran and Iraq war in full swing, but I still suspect that as they could they would dispose of most the other guys when there was no longer a dire need. Likely the war saved them from immediate execution.
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Curious how many Patriot and THAAD missiles the US has used up in the past 4-5 days.
Posting here as it’s directly relevant proxy action: the Houthis have captured Al Makha (Mocha) port on the Red Sea side of the Bab el Mandeb. Presumably from this the rest of the coast in that area is, at a minimum, at risk of falling to the Houthis. This will further threaten shipping from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden and onwards to the Indian Ocean.
www.aljazeera.com
Houthis capture Yemeni town of Mocha: Why it matters
The Houthi seizure of Mocha threatens global trade routes, severs vital supply lines, and displaces thousands in Yemen.
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Yea it's really confusing, the Yemen forces are apparently doing well elsewhere, but they don't fight as one , but in various different factions, with limited interactions and support. But this is really bad news if they can hold it.
Russia’s probably also earning some chips with Iran through provision of intelligence. How they cash those in will remain to be seen.
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Not reportedly.
Well other than Ukrainian ‘sanctions’
Ukraine Hits Key Russia-Iran Shipping Hub on Caspian Sea in First Makhachkala Port Strike
Ukraine hits Makhachkala International Commercial Seaport for the first time, targeting a key Russian maritime gateway linked to Iran and oil shipments.
united24media.com
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Likely that captured AUV will end up in Russia fairly soon.
QV
Army.ca Fixture
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Not reportedly.
Well other than Ukrainian ‘sanctions’
Ukraine Hits Key Russia-Iran Shipping Hub on Caspian Sea in First Makhachkala Port Strike
Ukraine hits Makhachkala International Commercial Seaport for the first time, targeting a key Russian maritime gateway linked to Iran and oil shipments.
Iran is presently able to support Russia to the extent it did before the USA bombed the shit out of them?
Two vessels have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz with a fire reported on one.
Potentially even worse, fire monitoring satellite data suggests the Saudi east-west pipeline may have been successfully struck with fire burning as a result. Presumably the Houthis. This pipeline has allowed some Gulf oil to transit west across Saudi to be loaded in the Red Sea. If the pipelines’s down, that makes the Strait of Hormuz more critical and eliminates a redundancy.
Potentially even worse, fire monitoring satellite data suggests the Saudi east-west pipeline may have been successfully struck with fire burning as a result. Presumably the Houthis. This pipeline has allowed some Gulf oil to transit west across Saudi to be loaded in the Red Sea. If the pipelines’s down, that makes the Strait of Hormuz more critical and eliminates a redundancy.
