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Trump administration 2024-2028

Czech_pivo said:
Alot of us on here (and throughout the world) are focused on November and the potential loss of the House or the Senate or both by Trump/Republicans. That's alot of 'hope'. We need to consider what happens if he manages to hold the House or the Senate or both......Things will potentially get worse for us and the world from Nov 2026 until Jan 2029
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There might be a lot of pain…but he might be gone post midterms.
I’m not confident his 2I/C is very competent
 
Czech_pivo said:
Let's see what the bond market continue to do this week and going forward. US 10yr bond now sitting at 4.875%
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Jesus dude. 4.92 now. It’s up eight basis points today at stock market open. I think the market just told Bessent to kick rocks. He said the U.S. will buy back $6b worth, yet prices are dropping in the face of that guaranteed demand.

I don’t see how the Fed doesn’t raise rates next week at this point.
 
brihard said:
Jesus dude. 4.92 now. It’s up eight basis points today at stock market open. I think the market just told Bessent to kick rocks. He said the U.S. will buy back $6b worth, yet prices are dropping in the face of that guaranteed demand.

I don’t see how the Fed doesn’t raise rates next week at this point.
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Ive been seeing speculation of a 0.5% rate increase now instead of just 0.25%. Not likely in my book but man that would drive interest costs to the moon.
 
brihard said:
Jesus dude. 4.92 now. It’s up eight basis points today at stock market open. I think the market just told Bessent to kick rocks. He said the U.S. will buy back $6b worth, yet prices are dropping in the face of that guaranteed demand.

I don’t see how the Fed doesn’t raise rates next week at this point.
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The EU is set to raise rates and the market, as of yesterday, was pricing in a 60% chance that the US does. Even if the 1/4 point raise doesn't translate into a 25 basis point rise on the 10yr (and 20yr/30yr), I think 15ish basis points rise is in order. That will put the US 10yr bond around 5.10%, that brings us back to 2006, pre 'Great Recession' numbers.

With Iran War showing no signs of winding down and the US Strat Oil Reserve dangerously low and now China actively back into the Oil market buying large amounts - things are looking dark for Trump.
 
Halifax Tar said:
My mother-in-law is suffering from dementia. In just about a year, she has lost the ability to hold or maintain a conversation. Most of the time, she sits quietly and appears very confused.

Every so often, she no longer recognizes where she is and insists that she needs to be taken home. The evenings are the most difficult.

Sundowning is very real.
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Going through the same with the grandmother, heres is in the advanced stages. Dementia is hard even with proper care. You can see clear signs of it with Trump
 
Czech_pivo said:
Alot of us on here (and throughout the world) are focused on November and the potential loss of the House or the Senate or both by Trump/Republicans. That's alot of 'hope'. We need to consider what happens if he manages to hold the House or the Senate or both......Things will potentially get worse for us and the world from Nov 2026 until Jan 2029
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Are you expecting a veto-proof majority? If not, what useful differences do you expect? Another wave of puppies-and-kittens bills containing poison pills designed to make Republicans look like they are opposed to puppies-and-kittens is less helpful than doing only a few useful things.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Are you expecting a veto-proof majority? If not, what useful differences do you expect? Another wave of puppies-and-kittens bills containing poison pills designed to make Republicans look like they are opposed to puppies-and-kittens is less helpful than doing only a few useful things.
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To be honest, if he 'holds' the House and/or the Senate, I haven't the foggiest as to what to expect. I don't think anyone really does. All bets are off and just about anything may in fact occur.
 
These are the paraphrased words of a hardcore MAGA I spoke with last week on the subject of reciprocal tariffs and Doug Ford's assertion that we could cut off the electricity to the northern States in response to future escalating tariffs:

"Canadian sovereignty is fragile given the secessionist movements in Quebec and Western Canada. Canadians would be wise to come to terms with the hard fact that Canada is a sovereign nation, for now, because America allows it to be. That time will come to an end if Canada doesn't deal fairly with Mr. Trump."

I wonder how pervasive that belief really is within the current US administration.
 
Haggis said:
These are the paraphrased words of a hardcore MAGA I spoke with last week on the subject of reciprocal tariffs and Doug Ford's assertion that we could cut off the electricity to the northern States in response to future escalating tariffs:

"Canadian sovereignty is fragile given the secessionist movements in Quebec and Western Canada. Canadians would be wise to come to terms with the hard fact that Canada is a sovereign nation, for now, because America allows it to be. That time will come to an end if Canada doesn't deal fairly with Mr. Trump."

I wonder how pervasive that belief really is within the current US administration.
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Within the Trump administration I would think pretty pervasive. Among ordinary Americans may be not so much.
 
Haggis said:
These are the paraphrased words of a hardcore MAGA I spoke with last week on the subject of reciprocal tariffs and Doug Ford's assertion that we could cut off the electricity to the northern States in response to future escalating tariffs:

"Canadian sovereignty is fragile given the secessionist movements in Quebec and Western Canada. Canadians would be wise to come to terms with the hard fact that Canada is a sovereign nation, for now, because America allows it to be. That time will come to an end if Canada doesn't deal fairly with Mr. Trump."

I wonder how pervasive that belief really is within the current US administration.
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Doesn’t matter how pervasive that belief is, rather whether it is wrong or not.

Currently Canada does lack the military required to protect our sovereignty. We can talk about cutting off power or oil all we want, but if the nation to the South with the most powerful military on the planet decided not to accept that, we couldn’t stop them currently.

Hence why I want to either be nuclear or at least have a military which makes them question whether it is worth it or not. You don’t necessarily need to win, just capable of inflicting enough potential losses to make it a non-starter.

Is it excessive? Likely yes. But I would rather be capable of saying no and just not, than being unable to say no because we lack the will to defend ourselves.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
Doesn’t matter how pervasive that belief is, rather whether it is wrong or not.

Currently Canada does lack the military required to protect our sovereignty. We can talk about cutting off power or oil all we want, but if the nation to the South with the most powerful military on the planet decided not to accept that, we couldn’t stop them currently.

Hence why I want to either be nuclear or at least have a military which makes them question whether it is worth it or not. You don’t necessarily need to win, just capable of inflicting enough potential losses to make it a non-starter.

Is it excessive? Likely yes. But I would rather be capable of saying no and just not, than being unable to say no because we lack the will to defend ourselves.
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We’ve seen how the Americans have a glass jaw when it comes to foreign operations. They can and invariably will win that first week of conventional war. The can and will tolerate near infinite expenditure of munitions and consumables- but they cannot tolerate above a pretty modest level of American soldiers’ lives.

To defend against such a threat a nation needs to have a population technically proficient enough to make use of the various means that exist to inflict human cost on an occupation force.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
Doesn’t matter how pervasive that belief is, rather whether it is wrong or not.

Currently Canada does lack the military required to protect our sovereignty. We can talk about cutting off power or oil all we want, but if the nation to the South with the most powerful military on the planet decided not to accept that, we couldn’t stop them currently.

Hence why I want to either be nuclear or at least have a military which makes them question whether it is worth it or not. You don’t necessarily need to win, just capable of inflicting enough potential losses to make it a non-starter.

Is it excessive? Likely yes. But I would rather be capable of saying no and just not, than being unable to say no because we lack the will to defend ourselves.
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To build on that, and further to my post, we agreed during the discussion that if Ford were to flip the switch on the northern States, we would have US boots on the ground (10th Mountain or USSOCOM and EGR techs) in Ontario before the room was dark.
 
brihard said:
To defend against such a threat a nation needs to have a population technically proficient enough to make use of the various means that exist to inflict human cost on an occupation force.
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Which we don't. And with the ongoing Liberal campaign to disarm Canadian citizens of anything remotely resembling modern military firearms and handguns, we would be hard pressed to mount a credible resistance without outside aid and supply.
 
Haggis said:
Which we don't. And with the ongoing Liberal campaign to disarm Canadian citizens of anything remotely resembling modern military firearms and handguns, we would be hard pressed to mount a credible resistance without outside aid and supply.
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We have the 7th most guns per capita of any country in the world (5th if you don't separate the Falklands and New Caledonia from their Sovereign states), and a large portion of the population that enjoys spending time outside, including in some rough winters.
 
brihard said:
Trump also now says the Iran War will end and oil prices will tumble “immediately after the midterms”.
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And anyone who believes this is an absolute sucker. I saw an interview where he said it might take longer than the mid-terms. He just makes shit up. Maybe he feels he has to win the war six or seven more times.
 
brihard said:
We’ve seen how the Americans have a glass jaw when it comes to foreign operations. They can and invariably will win that first week of conventional war. The can and will tolerate near infinite expenditure of munitions and consumables- but they cannot tolerate above a pretty modest level of American soldiers’ lives.

To defend against such a threat a nation needs to have a population technically proficient enough to make use of the various means that exist to inflict human cost on an occupation force.
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That glass jaw exists when those wars were fought far away against non-strategic threats. Canada cutting off power is both local and critical to them. That is the type of war they see to the end.
 
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