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Their prize would be the profits and fees for IP. And if that's not enough, we'll get somebody else to build in Canada. Why do you think the Koreans and Germans are suddenly promising all kind of work share in Canada for the submarine contract? They are starting to get that specs or price...

Nothing? They just have to build in Canada using Canadian steel.

Read the article. The budget presentation and cycle is changing. Not the fiscal year. This will probably change business planning cycles. But not March madness.

I question this narrative. If Trump is going to do something, he'll do it anyway. And I fear that making it so conditional on American approval will see public support tank when Trump (inevitably) refuses to acknowledge our increased spending. Here's a simple question. Has Trump actually...

They aren't fairly recent pressures. Wages and cost of living have been diverging for a while now. Worse more recently. But the trend is long running. The housing crisis has been easily going for two decades. And again, exploded post COVID. How many people in this country don't have a...

Yeah. But what happens when the budgets come out and we have $50b deficits? Balanced budgets, more social spending, more defence spending. Pick two. The next government will have the same choices too. This is why I think 2% is possible. More is a bridge too far. Up to 2%, there's ways to...

All that happened long (years) before the competition. When writing the SOR, 4 engine requirement was dropped, commonality was removed from consideration in bids, and the requirement to meet speed and range and payload simultaneously was removed as mandatory. The government of the day was...

Realistic, no? On a day to day basis I worry more about several of those top issues than China and Russia. And even from those nations, I worry more about information warfare, infrastructure attacks (cyber and underwater) than them landing troops on Canadian soil. Economic warfare with China...

I was there when the requirements were being written. All of that was done during the Harper years. Even circulation of draft RFPs. Only the competition itself was held in 2016. Do you really want to argue that new governments should simply restart procurements from scratch when elected?

Defence Investment Agency https://www.canada.ca/en/defence-investment-agency.html

To first assess need, we have to discuss the threat we're trying to counter/defend against and the mission/task being fulfilled.

I would also be a little reticent to criticize the Canadian public too much. Maslow's hierarchy. They know what they need. And in a country with a housing crisis, healthcare shortage, cost of living crisis, etc, to argue that the priority should be high end toys for a fight in Europe or...

Just a reminder, both parties do this. I got to enjoy this problem on the Kingfisher.

Worse. Canadians, until recently, saw militarism as an American thing. Basically something "unCanadian" if you will. A really trite attitude from people consciously relying on the US for protection. That is slowly changing as the US appears more fickle. But also, I have doubts that the...

Good point. Very possible. But the fact that we're going to be doing more at home does mitigate some of this risk. We'll get 2%. And probably stay there. The 5% talk is pure fantasy though. Keep in mind that industry wants this as much as the CAF. And also American protectionism doesn't...

100%. The project I'm on has lost 12 months. Half to internal governance. Half to TBS. I agree that it's going to be damn hard to get to 2% without reform. There's definitely money flowing though. And I've seen the rounds first hand to see what can move. It's all just chaotic now because...

As per the PBO estimate, we should be at 1.49% for FY25/26. We need about $15B to put us at 2%. Though not all of that has to be strictly CAF spending obviously. It'll be interesting to see where we get. I would bet about 1.8% by end fiscal and 2% in the next fiscal.

Happy to do that when we can get back to talking about defence and not partisan whining about what should have happened a decade ago (which I don't think anybody disagrees with). I don't know if you're still in or not. But there's been more than just me here saying that the changes are real...

What's likely to happen is that the government will delay the payments for the next lot until the last minute. We probably don't even have to pay for the next set of orders till 2027. Just to make the Americans sweat. But really, we aren't leaving the program, given the massive benefit to our...

Agreed. But this PM is moving to that goal. So I'm not going to complain. At this point I question whether some of you are so partisan that you care more about politics than actual policy. Honestly, you don't sound happy that money is flowing.