How many of all those are going to care enough to invest? Return has to be justified to their investors. Just because Maduro is gone, Venezuela doesn't become the best place on earth to put your cash.
Less them than those who were happy to work with CRINK in Latin America. Cuba above all else. But also Nicaragua. And beyond that every BRICS and BRI member in the region.
I think that's what Exercise Justice Mission 2025 was about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025
If Trump wants to talk his own economy by making a point with us, there's nothing we can do. Enjoy the ride. And plan for the reversal.
See how quickly he backed off China they minute they refused to ship some critical minerals. Trump's own farmers will string him up if their fertilizers go...
The timelines on your post don't match. CUSMA is needed asap. And heck, any such clause could well push a teteering American economy into recession. It's already a K shaped recovery where everybody but AI tech companies is in stagflation to recession. He does something like that with CUSMA...
I think we need to chill with the alarmism. We don't even know what deal is coming. And who knows how long it will take to rebuild the Venezuelan oil sector. And beyond that who knows what oil US and global oil demand will be then and where Venezuelan crude can get shipped to. We've got TMX...
Setting aside geopolitics, this looks like an incredibly successful military raid. The captured the HVT alive. They didn't lose any personnel or kit. Basically spent tens of millions last night in gas and ammo and got it done. Maybe few hundred million over the last few weeks?
And for that...
I said this before. There's this weird idea that oil majors are dying for places to invest. And they'll take any hellhole. But it's not true. Oilcos have been returning a ton of cash to shareholders. Who the heck can sell their shareholders on cutting the dividend to invest tens of billions...
The Presidents of that era were not Trump. You know you can just watch his press conference right now. He literally said, "we're going to run the place". And he re-iterated it by saying, "the people in this room".
I don't think anybody is arguing that Maduro is great or even tolerable.
The concern here is that this is yet another stop on the train to ending global norms and going to some might makes right world where countries like ours would be absolutely f'd.
Yeah. Hard to keep track of all the justification. First it's NATO expansion. Then it's Ukrainian Nazis. Then it's protecting ethnic Russians (by killing them at home).
Trump and Rubio are on TV right now basically arguing for the US Sphere of Influence. They also literally laid this out in their National Security Strategy. They aren't even trying to split hairs and make excuses like you are.
And yet Trump just said at his presser that Rubio is working with Maduro's VP. Funny that.
And he even reiterated that they haven't talked to the Opposition Leader in exile. And doesn't think she has the support. Me thinks her getting the Nobel Prize means Trump will ensure she never rules...
Everything from flight tracker to random tourist photos have picked up a massive surge in USSOCOM activity in Mexico. That war is already underway. Just not overt.
Trump has repeatedly backed down from every demand against China. He's mostly definitely not going to war with them. I think...
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