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What would those be? I assume that for Israel to act gravely against international law, Israel would first feel itself gravely threatened. Given that, I would not be surprised if Israel meted out harsh personal counter-consequences against whomever it deemed responsible for apprehending and...

Well, the UN has had some scandals involving exploitation of people the UN was supposed to be helping.

Although the Senate has ratification power, the constitutional doesn't really cover withdrawal power and constitutional authority for a president to pull out of a treaty (including NATO) is still an unsettled question. Mostly it seems (and opinions support) leaning "no", but not enough that it...

Whatever anyone might suggest, Israel probably doesn't think international law supercedes all other factors. For example, if I were Israeli, everything rooted in the UN, which has the institutional flaw of almost always managing to stack itself against Israel, would be a nullity to me. And...

He's a bit of a hero today to some people opposed to Trump, though, even if they despised him when he was confirmed. Conversely, some who approved during his confirmation disapprove now. Reminiscent of Andrew Cuomo: hero to his "side" when his policies contrasted with Trump and DeSantis during...

Many of the former dictatorships of the Americas have improved over the past decades. A few have not; Cuba is one of them. Overall it has taken decades, and those which have experienced some useful change mostly did it themselves. Is whether the dictatorships were right-coded or left-coded a...

It isn't meant to be realistic. Writing down possible outcomes as if they were taken seriously makes it easier to see which ones ought not be taken seriously.

That right there. Not sure it matters that it's a "communist" one, but it's a dictatorship. Cuba's USSR-backed days of being a regional and cross-Atlantic shit-disturbing proxy of the Soviet Union, which to some would have been enough justification, are over. Now it's just another place where...

Feel free to explain.

In Venezuela, it looks to me like the administration's position is "if you like your Bolivarian socialism, you can keep your Bolivarian socialism". To me, there's a thick enough line between "regime removal" and "regime change" to matter, and there's an even thicker one between killing...

They might. People have a way of seeing their grievances in the most favourable light. They can always be reminded of all the foreign terrorism their nation sponsored, and that their own attacks on neutral ships bound for neutral destinations might be pretty gray. (They could claim that if...

Right. The military that probably goes to war on a large scale more frequently than any other is not going to take away any lessons learned, this one time.

I already explained. If Canada hasn't much direct need for oil from that part of the world and it's safer to just put up with high prices, we can do that. If what you're getting at is "why would we take the risk", I suppose in part it would be a measure of how seriously we take them and...

That's effectively what happened in Venezuela. Maybe that's all Trump wants. Iranians might want more, like a constitutional convention and different structure of government. It doesn't look like the US will force one on them. "Regime" being "system of government", not "person", if the US...

Wait and see. Either the government improves its behaviour, or it doesn't. Effectively, just a swap. The theme seems to be "Remove shit-disturbing leadership and give country an opportunity to adjust. Repeat as necessary." If it works now and then, it's a fairly cheap and stark solution.

Maybe just show up to accompany the "neutral" shipping Iran says it won't attack? Sometimes an honest man needs a little help to stay honest. Doing nothing and potentially sucking up more damage than necessary is still a CoA, though. It's not everyone else's fault, but everyone else...

Doesn't really fit. The Trump administration doesn't look like it has any intention of remaking the country - regime removal, not regime change. Does fit, except that the monkey's mess is spreading over everyone whether they choose to deal with it or not.

"Pink Lloyd".

With respect to nations looking for new trading opportunities with China that may be true, but that's mostly tariff-dependent. What can't be overlooked is that twice now (Venezuela and Iran) China has shown that it can't or won't protect its friends to any degree that matters, and that a few of...

Maybe for what they want they don't actually need any of that. They have a game; they're setting the rules and playing it; they invite others to join on those terms. Do other nations need the US more than the US needs them? Israel is part of this. Preventive war is a no-no. The Iranian...