Europe

[Kirkhill]

The Trump Effect

How the return of British tactical nuclear weapons could save Europe

The Continent is scrambling to respond to Putin’s brinkmanship – the UK may have the answer

www.telegraph.co.uk

... as Donald Trump’s diplomacy with Russia sends shockwaves through Europe, Britain and its allies may have to develop a modern V-force to carry so-called tactical nuclear weapons.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s CDU party and the frontrunner to become the country’s next chancellor in elections on Sunday, was clear about the risks ahead in a TV interview on Friday.

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French – the two European nuclear powers – about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the UK and France, could also apply to us,” he said.

Western officials are concerned that an American pull-back from the Continent – long viewed as unthinkable, but now frighteningly plausible – would leave Nato with a “deterrence gap”.

One idea that has been floating around since the 1960s, and could be dusted off in Whitehall, is a British proposal for an “Atlantic nuclear force”.

This would see Nato allies in Europe pay towards an expansion of the UK’s nuclear capabilities, so the burden would not fall on London alone.

In return, Britain would align its nuclear planning with Nato and be willing to launch tactical nuclear strikes to defend the alliance’s borders.

Last year, Christian Lindner, a former German finance minister, echoed this idea when he suggested Britain and France could expand their capabilities to provide a “nuclear shield” for Europe.

Crucially, argues Alberque, this would not violate non-proliferation treaties – as only the UK would control the capability – and it would also allow France to retain its long-held stance of operational independence.

France’s policy is “not as cooperative”, leaving some allies unsure of whether it can truly be relied on, he adds.

“Macron will say, ‘You can rely on France.’ But then Berlin sends representatives to Paris and says, ‘OK, do we get a vote on whether or not you use nuclear weapons in a conflict?’

“And France says, ‘Well, no – that’s up to Macron.’”

The simplest kind of tactical nuclear weapon for Britain to develop would probably be warheads placed on an air-launched cruise missile, fired from a Typhoon or F-35 jet, says Rusi’s Kulesa.

This would give Nato’s European members a credible answer to Russian own tactical nukes.

“The idea would be to make a warhead that is compatible with the UK delivery platforms such as the Storm Shadow [cruise missile],” he adds.

I would also add this to the mix....

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

British Target Drones Appear To Have Been Turned Into Strike Weapons In Ukraine

The appearance of Banshee fits with Kyiv’s deepening military relationship with the U.K. and its expanding armada of Kamikaze drones.

www.twz.com

QinetiQ Banshee - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Kirkhill]

The effects in the Black Sea of a cease fire and possible RN contributions.

Ukraine’s crushing victory over Putin in the Black Sea is about to be given away

Restored grain shipments will be under threat from ‘grey zone’ tactics

www.telegraph.co.uk

The next point is what Turkey will decide regarding the Montreux Convention’s Article 19 restrictions on the transit of warships through the Bosporus. Although the Turks will want to maintain their political and economic balancing act they will most likely revoke Article 19 and revert to “peacetime rules” some weeks after the ceasefire is established and held. These rules allow Black Sea states to send warships through with eight days notice while non-Black sea states are limited to 15,000 tons (so no aircraft carriers) and a 21 day stay limit.

In this case it’s hard not to expect a queue of Russian warships lining up to replace – and more than replace – those sunk by Ukraine. The loss of the Tartus naval base in Syria will make the Russians even keener to do this. How many ships the Kremlin has to spare given what’s going on in the Baltic and further North remains to be seen but a fresh force of submarines and ships armed with the powerful Kalibr cruise missile would quickly negate Ukraine’s years of hard-won naval victories and swing the maritime balance of power back in Russia’s favour. A probable return by the Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol and a more secure Crimea changes the whole operating picture in the region: and from the wider world perspective, renewed access to the Mediterranean for Russian warships would be equally bad news.

A new, strong Russian presence in the Black Sea would be a problem even if the ceasefire holds because these forces would now be free to conduct grey zone operations, at which they are proficient, with near impunity.

RN/RAF contributions? Not much.

Russia likely to move its Tartus flotilla to Sevastopol.

 

[Kirkhill]

Trump’s comments are out of order, but Europe’s inaction is unforgivable

Trump’s comments about Zelensky are out of order, but the Continent has no excuse for past inaction

www.telegraph.co.uk

Europe and Britain cannot talk the talk until we walk the walk

US president Donald Trump’s approach to negotiations with Russia has triggered outrage in Europe.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Reeves may use stealth taxes to fund defence, City warns

British workers could face another £10bn stealth tax raid to shore up the public finances and pay for more defence spending, a top economist has warned, as Europe risks losing American military backing.

www.telegraph.co.uk