MedTech said:
Someone may have said the same thing when the Imperial Japanese Navy/IJN before they destroyed a good chunk of the Pacific fleet... Never underestimate.
The IJN and the PLAN are not directly comparable, even if the current rise of mainland China is comparable to the industrial rise of Meiji-Japan. The IJN, by the time of the Second World War, had already proven itself as a battle-proven force with tradition that goes back as early as the Battle of Tsushima in 1904, during the Sino-Japanese War, when Admiral Togo's vastly outnumbered fleet defeated the Russian Fleet of the Czar. Their experience in World War One sent a couple of destroyers to the Mediterranean and the Gallipolli campaign while the rest of their fleet blockaded the German treaty port of Qingdao/Tsingtao and chased German raiders across the Pacific, such as the merchant cruiser
Geier and Admiral Von Spee's cruiser squadron. And then you have the years of the China campaign to consider, with the successive Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, then the invasion of China proper in 1937, which saw the IJN virtually reduce the ROCN- Chiang Kai-Shek's Navy- to a couple of destroyers and torpedo boats as well as gunboats which all sought refuge in the inner reaches of the Yangtze river near Chiang's wartime capital of Chungking.
My point is that by the time the IJN sent a carrier force to attack Pearl Harbor in 1941, as well as their various invasion fleets to conquer the rest of Southeast Asia, they already had years of battle experience under their belt.
The Chinese PLAN, in contrast, has ZILCH combat experience since the 1945-49 Chinese Civil War that resulted in the ROC govt. fleeing to Taiwan and the establishment of the PRC on the mainland; you hear of no PLAN operations during the Korean War or the 1979 Chinese invasion of Vietnam, although the PLA did attempt an ill-fated amphibious landing on the ROC-held fortress islands of Kinmen and Quemoy in the early 1950s, IIRC.
While you are right in saying that we should not underestimate the Chinese Navy, I just do not think that they have evolved to the point yet where they can threaten the USN of today the same way the IJN smashed Admiral Kimmel's fleet at Pearl Harbor back in 1941. Maybe in 2040 or 2050, but not today.