Nik on the Numbers...Quebec election
The results of the Quebec provincial election will have reverberations outside of Quebec. I believe they will impact the timing of the next federal election but more importantly we may see a shift in the provincial landscape. At SES, we wanted to provide Canadians a glimpse into the Quebec election. There is quite a bit of polling data to cover so I will focus on the analytical highlights. The detailed polling stats (in French and English) are on our website. SES explored perceptions of the party leaders and also the parties.
You can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue on my blog at http://www.nikonthenumbers.com
Methodology
Polling on March 14th and 15th, 2007, after the leaders' debate. Random Telephone Survey of 500 Quebecers, 18 years of age and older. Accurate 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
Quebec Election Key Findings and Analysis
Charest does well on most leadership measures. Dumont runs a strong second. Boisclair’s personal image trails both Charest and Dumont on most factors.
Among their own political tribes, Boisclair’s approval ratings are relatively the weakest. Charest scores well among self-identified Liberals, Dumont scores well among self-identified ADQ supporters, Boisclair does not get as strong a comparative rating among self-identified PQ supporters.
Dumont does well among Quebecers who do not identify with any of the parties (swing voters) and among middle aged voters. However, his party is seen as being weak on policy and there is a perception that his team is weak.
The Charest Liberals are seen as having a strong team and a strong platform.
Quebecers who usually self identify with the PQ prefer Dumont over Charest.
The research suggests that Dumont is tapping into disgruntled PQ voters and that his support is more populist than party oriented.
All this adds up to volatility. Any further meltdown for Boisclair or the PQ will help Dumont. For the close of the campaign, we may see a shift in strategy for the Liberals to the team and the platform. Looking at these numbers, I would not be surprised to see personal attacks on Dumont (especially from the PQ).
The tables with the tabs are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com.
The results of the Quebec provincial election will have reverberations outside of Quebec. I believe they will impact the timing of the next federal election but more importantly we may see a shift in the provincial landscape. At SES, we wanted to provide Canadians a glimpse into the Quebec election. There is quite a bit of polling data to cover so I will focus on the analytical highlights. The detailed polling stats (in French and English) are on our website. SES explored perceptions of the party leaders and also the parties.
You can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue on my blog at http://www.nikonthenumbers.com
Methodology
Polling on March 14th and 15th, 2007, after the leaders' debate. Random Telephone Survey of 500 Quebecers, 18 years of age and older. Accurate 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
Quebec Election Key Findings and Analysis
Charest does well on most leadership measures. Dumont runs a strong second. Boisclair’s personal image trails both Charest and Dumont on most factors.
Among their own political tribes, Boisclair’s approval ratings are relatively the weakest. Charest scores well among self-identified Liberals, Dumont scores well among self-identified ADQ supporters, Boisclair does not get as strong a comparative rating among self-identified PQ supporters.
Dumont does well among Quebecers who do not identify with any of the parties (swing voters) and among middle aged voters. However, his party is seen as being weak on policy and there is a perception that his team is weak.
The Charest Liberals are seen as having a strong team and a strong platform.
Quebecers who usually self identify with the PQ prefer Dumont over Charest.
The research suggests that Dumont is tapping into disgruntled PQ voters and that his support is more populist than party oriented.
All this adds up to volatility. Any further meltdown for Boisclair or the PQ will help Dumont. For the close of the campaign, we may see a shift in strategy for the Liberals to the team and the platform. Looking at these numbers, I would not be surprised to see personal attacks on Dumont (especially from the PQ).
The tables with the tabs are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com.
