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Potential Collapse of the Assad Regime?

Current thunder run happening in Syria where the HTS (by no means good people) seem to be routing loyalist forces all over Northern Syria. They are currently taking ground near Hama and don't seem to have any intention of stopping.

Hama is a strategic city on the road to Damascus. It'll be important to watch for any major battles near Homs, where the government will probably consolidate.
 
PrairieFella said:
Current thunder run happening in Syria where the HTS (by no means good people) seem to be routing loyalist forces all over Northern Syria. They are currently taking ground near Hama and don't seem to have any intention of stopping.

Hama is a strategic city on the road to Damascus. It'll be important to watch for any major battles near Homs, where the government will probably consolidate.
Click to expand...

The enemy of my enemy is my friend ;)

www.aljazeera.com

Syrian rebels reach central Aleppo as army announces temporary withdrawal

Military says dozens of soldiers killed in attacks in northwest and it was regrouping to launch a ‘counterattack’.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
PrairieFella said:
Current thunder run happening in Syria where the HTS (by no means good people) seem to be routing loyalist forces all over Northern Syria. They are currently taking ground near Hama and don't seem to have any intention of stopping.

Hama is a strategic city on the road to Damascus. It'll be important to watch for any major battles near Homs, where the government will probably consolidate.
Click to expand...
Looks like they already took at least most of Hama earlier today and are probably trying to push for Homs. Homs looks like a must-hold for the regime; if they lose it they’re landlocked and cut off from the port cities. I suspect both sides are probably racing.
 
Interesting possible involvement from Turkey...

Netanyahu holds assessment on Syria as jihadists enter Aleppo in lightning assault​


Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive. But Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said Turkey sought to avoid greater instability in the region and had warned that recent attacks undermined de-escalation agreements.

 
daftandbarmy said:
The enemy of my enemy is my friend ;)
Click to expand...
I'm OK with being deleted by another mod, but this cartoon from the Obama days gives a bit of reminder that not EVERY enemy of my enemy is necessarily my friend ....
AntiISISCoalition.jpg
Usual Wikipedia caveats apply, but here's a more linear list of who's who in the Anti-Assad zoo.

List of armed factions in the Syrian Civil War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Also, a quick & dirty analysis of where Assad's looking for help from for now.
www.jpost.com

Syria shores up support from Iran, Iraq, and UAE as Assad loses Aleppo - analysis

Now that Damascus has lost Aleppo, it is clear the regime is not stable. However, the regime will need all the help it can get from Iraq and the Gulf, as well as its allies in Iran and Russia.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
 
Seems a big battle is about to begin and the offensive appears to be stalling.

SDF Kurdish Forces have allegedly moved in and secured Northern Aleppo and are working with Regime Forces.
Reports that Russian Air Force has been conducting large scale air strikes and that the leader of the HTS was killed by one.



A large Regime Force has massed in Hama and is preparing to launch a Counter attack

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863018872346906884



Iraqi Shia Militia have crossed the border and are apparently enroute to support the Regime.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863203206601265562

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863211550997119194

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863204842899984410
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
Seems a big battle is about to begin and the offensive appears to be stalling.

SDF Kurdish Forces have allegedly moved in and secured Northern Aleppo and are working with Regime Forces.
Reports that Russian Air Force has been conducting large scale air strikes and that the leader of the HTS was killed by one.



A large Regime Force has massed in Hama and is preparing to launch a Counter attack

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863018872346906884



Iraqi Shia Militia have crossed the border and are apparently enroute to support the Regime.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863203206601265562

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863211550997119194

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863204842899984410
Click to expand...

Good thing the long term, and ongoing, US involvement in Iraq over the years has helped them make the right choices ;)
 
This is gonna be a rough one… The Assad regime is supremely murderous and shitty. HTS, who appear to be quarterbacking the rebel push, are pretty hard core islamists and also pretty shitty (listed terrorist entity here FWIW) - though for now they seem to be coexisting reasonably with the Kurdish SDF, and there may have been some swapping of land. Will Turkey make its continued support contingent on also suppressing the Kurds?

Lots of excited talking about fast pushes yesterday, myself included… Not sure how well that’s holding up in what’s probably a ‘catch your breath’ consolidation phase. May be they bypassed a lot that they’re now having to deal with.

Tough to gauge what the rebels’ objectives are. The seemingly obvious move is to anchor east of Aleppo and drive hard south to Homs; but with backup coming en masse from the east, they need to be ready for that. However I doubt the rebels are surprised to see Iranian backed militias entering the fray and likely were ready for that.

Even if they’re limited to taking Aleppo and part of Hama, that’s still a major move down the chess board.
 
brihard said:
This is gonna be a rough one… The Assad regime is supremely murderous and shitty. HTS, who appear to be quarterbacking the rebel push, are pretty hard core islamists and also pretty shitty (listed terrorist entity here FWIW) - though for now they seem to be coexisting reasonably with the Kurdish SDF, and there may have been some swapping of land. Will Turkey make its continued support contingent on also suppressing the Kurds?

Lots of excited talking about fast pushes yesterday, myself included… Not sure how well that’s holding up in what’s probably a ‘catch your breath’ consolidation phase. May be they bypassed a lot that they’re now having to deal with.

Tough to gauge what the rebels’ objectives are. The seemingly obvious move is to anchor east of Aleppo and drive hard south to Homs; but with backup coming en masse from the east, they need to be ready for that. However I doubt the rebels are surprised to see Iranian backed militias entering the fray and likely were ready for that.

Even if they’re limited to taking Aleppo and part of Hama, that’s still a major move down the chess board.
Click to expand...
And Israel sits back at their three tier Chess board to watch the aftermath.

So how is that three day plan going Vlad?
 
PrairieFella said:
... Can we just call it a day and give the Kurds a country? At least we can work with Kurds.
Click to expand...
Some thought that before, until they stopped thinking that - these blasts from the past (2019 being the most recent) ....
www.pbs.org

U.S. troops begin pulling out of Syria, leaving Kurds without support

Turkey's leader has threatened for months to launch a military operation against Syria Kurdish forces, who he views as terrorists.
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org
apnews.com

Trump defends decision to abandon Kurdish allies in Syria

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump cast his decision to abandon Kurdish fighters in Syria as fulfilling a campaign promise to withdraw from "endless war" in the Middle East, even as Republican critics and others said he was sacrificing a U.S. ally and undermining American credibility.
apnews.com apnews.com
www.defenseone.com

Betraying The Kurds Makes Things Harder for US Operators Everywhere

It will henceforth be much more difficult for U.S. combat forces and advisors to get help from local partners around the world.
www.defenseone.com www.defenseone.com
theintercept.com

Eight Times the U.S. Has Betrayed the Kurds

Nothing in this world is certain except death, taxes, and America betraying the Kurds.
theintercept.com theintercept.com
Humphrey Bogart said:
And they are the ones who are allegedly the backers of HTS.
Click to expand...
Hey, whatever works to kick those Kurds in the nootz, right? :)
DBNSG said:
... So how is that three day plan going Vlad?
Click to expand...
He should ask the Syrian opposition forces about that ;)
9c8lxe.jpg
 
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