Oldgateboatdriver
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I am looking through the publicly available information on various warship shipbuilding programs in Canada and the UK, and on the projected schedules in particular.
The Canadian River class current projection is for FRASER to commission in the early 2030's (I will be generous and assume it will be actually in 2030) and the first 9 vessels to commission by 2040, with the last 6 commissioning between 2040 and 2050 (last one). Why a slower rate of production in the second decade is not made clear, but I will assume that it is because in that same decade (40 to50), the first five years will also include the development and designing of the next gen of RCN warships and they will start to build in parallel with the last Rivers during the second 5 years so that they (next gen) start to replace the older Rivers from 2051 on. At least that is what the Shipbuilding Strategy envisioned: continuous build.
When I look at all the various Type 26 derivatives construction schedules, I note that the production speed seems fairly constant throughout at a little over five years from "keel" laying (I put that in brackets because nowadays, the process starts differently than in the old days). On the other hand, the production speed for the Type 31 seems to be a little over three years.
Assuming no slippage in the River class production schedule occurs and assuming the HAL's will self retire the same way and at about the same age as the IRO's (44 years average), then the last HAL will self retire in 2040, at which time we will only have 9 River's in service. Not only do we not hit 15 warships in service, but we are 25% below current fleet levels. Any slippage in the River's production increases that gap.
If, on the other hand, we ran the following program, what would happen?
Program: A one time, one bid deal whereby the Government of Canada invites any Canadian shipyard to present a bid for the construction of six minimally Canadianized Type 31 frigates, the first one to be "laid down" no later than end of 2025, be in service NLT 2029 and the last one delivered by NLT end of 2035. Each bidder would have to negotiate its own deal with Babcock. Any Canadian yard could bid, but the ones that are already "selected" yard under the NSBS would have to guarantee, under severe penalties if they fail, that taking on such extra work would not delay their other productions by even one day.
By "minimum Canadianizing", I mean the following: Hotel services to be at North American electrical standards and, if they see fit and is easier to make it work, use CCS330 instead of TACTICOS as the combat system.
Under my "plan", one HAL would be retired every time either a Canadian Type 31 or a River class commissions so that all 12 HAL's would be retired by about 2037-38. After that year, you let the fleet build up to 15 ships with further River commissioning, at which point for every River coming into the fleet, you start selling the Canadian Type 31 to acceptable secondary markets.
What say you all?
The Canadian River class current projection is for FRASER to commission in the early 2030's (I will be generous and assume it will be actually in 2030) and the first 9 vessels to commission by 2040, with the last 6 commissioning between 2040 and 2050 (last one). Why a slower rate of production in the second decade is not made clear, but I will assume that it is because in that same decade (40 to50), the first five years will also include the development and designing of the next gen of RCN warships and they will start to build in parallel with the last Rivers during the second 5 years so that they (next gen) start to replace the older Rivers from 2051 on. At least that is what the Shipbuilding Strategy envisioned: continuous build.
When I look at all the various Type 26 derivatives construction schedules, I note that the production speed seems fairly constant throughout at a little over five years from "keel" laying (I put that in brackets because nowadays, the process starts differently than in the old days). On the other hand, the production speed for the Type 31 seems to be a little over three years.
Assuming no slippage in the River class production schedule occurs and assuming the HAL's will self retire the same way and at about the same age as the IRO's (44 years average), then the last HAL will self retire in 2040, at which time we will only have 9 River's in service. Not only do we not hit 15 warships in service, but we are 25% below current fleet levels. Any slippage in the River's production increases that gap.
If, on the other hand, we ran the following program, what would happen?
Program: A one time, one bid deal whereby the Government of Canada invites any Canadian shipyard to present a bid for the construction of six minimally Canadianized Type 31 frigates, the first one to be "laid down" no later than end of 2025, be in service NLT 2029 and the last one delivered by NLT end of 2035. Each bidder would have to negotiate its own deal with Babcock. Any Canadian yard could bid, but the ones that are already "selected" yard under the NSBS would have to guarantee, under severe penalties if they fail, that taking on such extra work would not delay their other productions by even one day.
By "minimum Canadianizing", I mean the following: Hotel services to be at North American electrical standards and, if they see fit and is easier to make it work, use CCS330 instead of TACTICOS as the combat system.
Under my "plan", one HAL would be retired every time either a Canadian Type 31 or a River class commissions so that all 12 HAL's would be retired by about 2037-38. After that year, you let the fleet build up to 15 ships with further River commissioning, at which point for every River coming into the fleet, you start selling the Canadian Type 31 to acceptable secondary markets.
What say you all?
