Winning Friends and Influencing People - US and Saudi Arabia

[Kirkhill]

An interesting take on the US from a Saudi point of view.

How to Lose Friends and Influence Over People

A decade of Obama-Biden foreign policy has broken the Middle East and America’s security order

www.tabletmag.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

He failed to mention how Saudi is making it's own Clusterf**k in Yemen, all that hardware is wasted on them. UAE is far more competent.

 

[Good2Golf]

He failed to mention how Saudi is making it's own Clusterf**k in Yemen, all that hardware is wasted on them. UAE is far more competent.

If only the world had more KSA….

 

[Kirkhill]

If only the world had more KSA….

The problem our government faces is that KSA is more reflective of the norm. And wishful thinking won't change that.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The problem our government faces is that KSA is more reflective of the norm. And wishful thinking won't change that.

Getting them to accept women driving is the goal over the next decade. Much less any of the other progressive agenda.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Hurt feelings report being drafted in Washington now... and the West can go pound (their own) sand for all KSA cares:



https://www.npr.What's interesting, Scott, is it became clear after the meeting that the Biden administration had put on a full-court press with Saudi Arabia, which is the de facto leader of OPEC+, as well as other members of the cartel, not to do this, not to make this move. But those appeals were ignored. OPEC slashed oil output, and members of Congress were outraged. Also, the Biden administration said on Tuesday, it's going to be reviewing the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

SIMON: Do we know why Saudi Arabia didn't go along?

NORTHAM: Well, you know, the country's not known for transparency. The government there doesn't often explain things. But after the Biden administration objected to this cut and tied the move to the Ukraine war and said the producers were aligning with Russia, the Saudis did respond. The foreign ministry issued this extraordinary statement. It was several paragraphs long defending their decision. They said it was based purely on economics; it had nothing to do with American politics or Ukraine; and that, you know, roughly the two dozen members of OPEC agreed with the decision.

The Biden administration turned around and dismissed those comments. John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, issued this sharply worded, almost angry statement saying the kingdom was trying to spin the story and deflect the facts. And he accused Saudi Arabia of helping Russia fund its war in Ukraine by pushing up oil revenue and basically strong-arming other OPEC members to go along with the decision. And, again, Scott, all this was played out in the open, which is highly unusual.

SIMON: Yeah. And what happens now?

NORTHAM: Well, some Democrats in Congress want the U.S. to freeze weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. But, you know, those represent a lot of American jobs. And I spoke with one analyst, and he said that the U.S. has to recognize that there's a new leader in Saudi Arabia. This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who's very powerful. And he sees relations with the U.S. as more transactional than strategic, and that the U.S. has to decide if it wants to spend, you know, time and money trying to rebuild that strategic relationship or become more transactional itself. And that could affect the security arrangement, which Saudi Arabia has depended on for decades - so, you know, maybe not sell the kingdom the most sophisticated U.S. weapons or maybe rethink U.S. troop sizes in the kingdom.

org/2022/10/15/1129295184/what-caused-the-unusually-public-rift-between-the-u-s-and-saudi-arabia

 

[Good2Golf]

Time for Shale 3.0 yet?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Time for Shale 3.0 yet?

KSA is betting on the Dems cutting their own throat because of the parties position on Fracking.

 

[Good2Golf]

KSA is betting on the Dems cutting their own throat because of the parties position on Fracking.

So long as the energy-myopia/stupidity doesn’t ‘leak’ down from North of the 49th, the US should still be in a decent position, as even the Dems are mindful of the energy exigencies coming out of “contemporary European energy challenges.”

It’s not like the US would cripple its own energy industry and funnel exported petroleum at heavily-discounted prices through Mexico to Europe…

 

[OldSolduer]

Remember the Saudis make people "disappear" and make no bones about it.

 

[Brad Sallows]

"You're horrible; may we have some oil?" turned out to be a weak position to take.

 

[Quirky]

The world sees Biden as a geriatric, unfit leader and are taking advantage.

 

[Good2Golf]

"You're horrible; may we have some oil?" turned out to be a weak position to take.

And they (Dems) will own it until they ease off on fracking and let Shale 3.0 do battle conduct influence ops on OPEC.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

So long as the energy-myopia/stupidity doesn’t ‘leak’ down from North of the 49th, the US should still be in a decent position, as even the Dems are mindful of the energy exigencies coming out of “contemporary European energy challenges.”

It’s not like the US would cripple its own energy industry and funnel exported petroleum at heavily-discounted prices through Mexico to Europe…

The Americans are actually evil geniuses. The US would prefer it if the World would revert back to pre-Feb 2022 status quo but they are doing the next best thing and hawking their own energy at Europe for a steal.

Oil at $90 Is Bad for China and Europe Growth, But Not US

www.bloomberg.com

The US is essentially energy self-sufficient and they have their client state just to the North that provides millions of barrels of discounted Oil & Gas that Americans can refine and sell to others with significant markup.




The Europeans are basically bankrupting themselves and tanking their economy with the sanctions regime against Russia. The pending wave of potential bankruptcies which I believe is just around the corner is going to make a lot of people, especially Americans, very rich.

Uncle Sam is going to be able to come in and swallow up European assets at a significant discount. Especially as the Euro/Pound Sterling are weakening relative to the $USD. The Pound Sterling is basically in free fall atm:

The world sees Biden as a geriatric, unfit leader and are taking advantage.

I don't think it's so much Biden as it is the EU + West are seen as particularly weak atm. This all began during the COVID-19 Pandemic and the responses to that crisis didn't instill a lot of confidence in our collective resolve.

I don't think America is weak though. America is the only Western Country that actually shows any strength atm. If anything, it's America's Clients + Allies that are weak.

 

[KevinB]

I am no great fan of POTUS, but am now tending to think he’s a lot more cunning and ruthless than people give him credit for.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I am no great fan of POTUS, but am now tending to think he’s a lot more cunning and ruthless than people give him credit for.

That is pretty high praise from you.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I am no great fan of POTUS, but am now tending to think he’s a lot more cunning and ruthless than people give him credit for.

Things I think are true:

1. We are in a Multipolar World now

2. Europe is incredibly weak and feeble

3. Europe is almost entirely dependent now on the US for its security, economic prosperity and welfare. It's literally become a real Big Canada.

4. Russia is and will remain, along with the likes of Iran, a significant disruptor State in to the future. I do not believe either Country can actually be truly controlled by anyone.

5. Russia is stronger in many ways than the EU and the EU as a collective, fears them. Strong ≠ Wealth. Without the US, the Russians would crush any challenge from the EU, as they have many times in Europe previously.

6. New kids on the block like India, Brazil, Turkey and others like KSA, South Korea, Indonesia, etc will act with increasing independence and cloud the waters so to speak. They are all strong enough to present challenges to both the US and China on a regional level and cannot be 100% controlled by either "Superpower".

7. China is a Superpower and an equal to the United States, militarily and economically and competition for favour will be between these two going forward.

8. The United States is still the biggest and baddest dog on the planet and will remain so for a while longer but it cannot rule with absolute authority any longer.

 

[Kirkhill]

Things I think are true:

1. We are in a Multipolar World now

Yes

2. Europe is incredibly weak and feeble

There isn't, and has never been a Europe. There is a Holy Roman Empire of City States with variable borders struggling to find a way to make money and not kill each other

3. Europe is almost entirely dependent now on the US for its security, economic prosperity and welfare.

Yes

It's literally become a real Big Canada.

A really Populous Canada with the same divide between top down authoritarians and bottom up democrats

4. Russia is and will remain, along with the likes of Iran, a significant disruptor State in to the future. I do not believe either Country can actually be truly controlled by anyone.

First real divergence.

I don't like United Nations terminology. The UN deals with the bureaucrats of cities that claim hegemony over borders. I reject the solidity of the borders.

Russia isn't "Russia". Russia is Moscow. China is Beijing. The US is Washington. The UK is London. Canada is Ottawa. France is Paris. etc.

How securely wedded are the bureaucrats of those cities to the people within the borders they claim?

5. Russia is stronger in many ways than the EU and the EU as a collective, fears them. Strong ≠ Wealth. Without the US, the Russians would crush any challenge from the EU, as they have many times in Europe previously.

Is Moscow's grip on Russia stronger than Brussel's grip on the EU? Indisputably. Is it sufficiently strong to hold Russia? Moot. Is it sufficiently strong to steam roller the EU without the US? Mute. The EU has the US's support. And there are elements of the European family that are not inclined just to roll over.

Is Moscow disruptive? Yes. Disruption, like climate change and the poor, is the natural order of things and will always be with us.

6. New kids on the block like India, Brazil, Turkey and others like KSA, South Korea, Indonesia, etc will act with increasing independence and cloud the waters so to speak. They are all strong enough to present challenges to both the US and China on a regional level and cannot be 100% controlled by either "Superpower".

Absolutely - New Delhi, Brasilia, Ankara, Riyadh, Seoul, Jakarta etc will act with increasing independence. Agree also on your take on control.

7. China is a Superpower and an equal to the United States, militarily and economically and competition for favour will be between these two going forward.

Same League

United States/Gross domestic product
20.94 trillion USD (2020)

China/Gross domestic product
14.72 trillion USD (2020)

Not the same League

United States/GDP per capita
63,543.58 USD (2020)

China/GDP per capita
10,500.40 USD (2020)

The US is having challenges keeping the lid on a restive population in a wealthy society.

China's challenges are greater and its means are fewer.

8. The United States is still the biggest and baddest dog on the planet and will remain so for a while longer but it cannot rule with absolute authority any longer.

Agreed and agreed and agreed.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Things I think are true:



3. Europe is almost entirely dependent now on the US for its security, economic prosperity and welfare. It's literally become a real Big Canada.

LOL the new insult; "Welcome fellow Canadians"

 

[FJAG]

Things I think are true:

1. We are in a Multipolar World now

Have been for quite a while.

2. Europe is incredibly weak and feeble

3. Europe is almost entirely dependent now on the US for its security, economic prosperity and welfare. It's literally become a real Big Canada.

Only because Europe has chosen to be so as a result of is commitment (like Canada) to reaping that Cold war peace dividend.

Economically Europe has tremendous depth. It's core nations--Germany, the UK, France and Italy--have a collect GDP of $10.7 trillion and a population of 260. The GDP is 8 times Russia's and its population almost twice that. Add in Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium and the GDP goes to $13.3 and population to 330 million. 10 times and over twice that of Russians and a comparable population to the US at 70% of the GDP Compared to China the GDP is equal and the population less than 1/4. Even Canada, at 1/4 of the Population of Russia has a slightly larger GDP.

Like Canada, and unlike the US, these European governments have chosen to put their money into public support programs rather than defence. Weakness happens when you do not have a choice. Whether or not the choice Europe and Canada have made is ultimately a good one or a disaster will only be decided by history.

Europe can easily afford to pay for its own security but quite frankly the recent performance of the Russian military shows that it is no real threat to the core of Europe other than in a nuclear event which will in all likelihood remove all of Russia off the map - that puts it all back in the MAD world. Essentially the core has good buffers which might need support and reinforcing. There will be an increase in European security but not a large one. Canada on the other hand will take a hard pass as usual.

4. Russia is and will remain, along with the likes of Iran, a significant disruptor State in to the future. I do not believe either Country can actually be truly controlled by anyone.

True

5. Russia is stronger in many ways than the EU and the EU as a collective, fears them. Strong ≠ Wealth. Without the US, the Russians would crush any challenge from the EU, as they have many times in Europe previously.

Dictatorships have a single mind and can move a population in a desired direction. You are conflating strength with audacity and the willingness to throw the dice. Russian laws are highly undemocratic and violently suppress even a hint of disagreement. This is not strength.

Russia today is Nazi Germany of the 1930s notwithstanding it's convoluted rhetoric. This is at its heart a perverted version "Lebensraum" and "Anschluss" coupled with a land and economy grab.

Whether or not Russia could crush a challenge from Europe is a moot point. Europe would never have challenged Russia militarily in the first place. Sanctions are their preferred weapon of choice and that would have happened without the US but with the US the challenge was stronger by far as was the military support to Ukraine.

6. New kids on the block like India, Brazil, Turkey and others like KSA, South Korea, Indonesia, etc will act with increasing independence and cloud the waters so to speak. They are all strong enough to present challenges to both the US and China on a regional level and cannot be 100% controlled by either "Superpower".

Agreed

7. China is a Superpower and an equal to the United States, militarily and economically and competition for favour will be between these two going forward.

Yes it is and no its not. Given time it might be. If it doesn't collapse internally. There's a lot of shifting sand under their foundation.

8. The United States is still the biggest and baddest dog on the planet and will remain so for a while longer but it cannot rule with absolute authority any longer.

Yes it is and yes it will -- if it doesn't collapse internally because there is a lot of shifting sand under that foundation as well.