Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[CountDC]

Some things I hear

Lots of purchases - subs, ships, airplanes, army vehicles, etc.

pay increase at some point.

Coast Guard removed from fisheries and put under defence.

Made in Canada industries - may be given loans/grants/tax breaks counted as defence spending.

 

[MilEME09]

That was the announcement from the pm not the technical briefing

 

[PPCLI Guy]

That was the announcement from the pm not the technical briefing

Government of Canada officials to hold technical briefing on defence and security priorities​

From: National Defence

Media advisory​

June 8, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Government of Canada officials will hold a virtual technical briefing for media to provide information and answer questions, under embargo, related to Canada’s defence and security priorities.

Date: Monday, June 9, 2025
Time: 11:40 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. EDT

Media interested in attending the event are asked to contact National Defence’s media relations office at [email protected] to confirm their attendance. Details on how to participate will be provided upon registration.

So it hasn't started yet.,

 

[PrairieFella]

Should be going on right now. Apparently friend of the forum Noah Gairn is in there as media, we should get some good rundowns from him tonight.

 

[markppcli]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-canada-to-meet-two-per-cent-nato-1.7555928

 

[NearingZenith]

If there isn’t the capacity to build more surface combatants in Canada in the near-term and we don’t want to buy ships from abroad, then they could probably spend a few billion dollars to give the Halifax-class another mid-life refit so that some can actually last to ~2040 when the last River-class destroyer arrives. This refit could primarily focus on hull and machinery with a lesser focus on combat systems. Yes just buying warships from say South Korea is a more efficient use of money and probably faster, but a Halifax-class refit done in Canadian shipyards, by Canadian workers, using Canadian steel, and non-American/non-ITAR equipment is a much easier sell to Canadians and addresses a real and practical need.

 

[YZT580]

True - I don't see how the existing infrastructure will be able to deal with an expanded fleet of 15 Rivers, 12 Corvettes (if/when they occur), the 12 subs (if/when they occur), 2/3 JSS and the 6 AOPS. Proper, long time accommodating all of them is not possible given what's available now.

and housing for the crews. Last I heard there was a housing shortage in most major communities. Good place to start with pre-fabs as if I recall building permits are more readily available on base and one doesn't have to contend with nimby

 

[brihard]

Should be going on right now. Apparently friend of the forum Noah Gairn is in there as media, we should get some good rundowns from him tonight.

Yeah, I’m following his thread. ‘Friend of the forum’ - he’s not on here, is he?

 

[Remius]

Technical briefing math says we only need to spend around 9 billion more this year to get to 2%…the math will be interesting to see.

 

[KevinB]

If there isn’t the capacity to build more surface combatants in Canada in the near-term and we don’t want to buy ships from abroad, then they could probably spend a few billion dollars to give the Halifax-class another mid-life refit so that some can actually last to ~2040 when the last River-class destroyer arrives. This refit could primarily focus on hull and machinery with a lesser focus on combat systems. Yes just buying warships from say South Korea is a more efficient use of money and probably faster, but a Halifax-class refit done in Canadian shipyards, by Canadian workers, using Canadian steel, and non-American/non-ITAR equipment is a much easier sell to Canadians and addresses a real and practical need.

Uhm given the type of work - I am pretty sure you will find the dockyards you need for the River's to be built would be the same needed to layup the CPF's and rip out their rotting bits.

 

[KevinB]

Technical briefing math says we only need to spend around 9 billion more this year to get to 2%…the math will be interesting to see.

Technical Briefing Math and Real Math do not appear to align.

 

[Underway]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-canada-to-meet-two-per-cent-nato-1.7555928

Its nice to see CBC spelles "armoured" correctly. Unlike stupid Globe and Mail....

Yeah, I’m following his thread. ‘Friend of the forum’ - he’s not on here, is he?

Nope he is not. He thinks we're a bunch of old timers who are more interested in arguing about Army Reorg, cap badges and uniforms than a place for actual interesting discourse. Or as I like to say "square rigged grognards".

The man is 24. X and substack are far more generational for someone like him. Forums vs substack is like hotmail vs insta/snapchat.

 

[Remius]

Technical Briefing Math and Real Math do not appear to align.

Devil is in the details…

From what I heard on the radio is that apparently we were on track to be at 1.7% so the remaining 0.3% amounts to 9 billion or so.

Assuming I heard that right.

 

[Underway]

Technical Briefing Math and Real Math do not appear to align.

From what I heard on the radio is that apparently we were on track to be at 1.7% so the remaining 0.3% amounts to 9 billion or so.

Well given the current expenditures are projected to be $33 billion (as per two weeks ago from the parliamentary budget officer report) that would put us at $42 billion. ~$44.5 billion if you include CCG. Not sure what RCMP addition is to that. And of course any "dual use infrastruture" projects they want to tack on.

I don't know what 2% number actually looks like as a hard number though, so that's my math. Call it $45 billion.

 

[Remius]

That puts it pretty close. Assuming the numbers are correct

 

[Underway]

That puts it pretty close. Assuming the numbers are correct

Problem is finding the hard numbers. What's 2% of GDP as an actual number? I think its around $58 billion? If we are on track for $37 billion already, then an extra 11.5 billion (from CCG and new spending) wil put us at $48 billion. Which means we're still $10 billion short.

But hell, I'm just grabbing some random numbers off the internet. We need someone to actually take the time and crunch the info. Also devil is in the details. Is that 9 billion in direct budget increase not including the pay increase of say 5% or whatever? And does that include this years expected budget ramp up that was put in last years budget?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Devil is in the details…

From what I heard on the radio is that apparently we were on track to be at 1.7% so the remaining 0.3% amounts to 9 billion or so.

Assuming I heard that right.

For that 1.7% number we must have bought a massive amount of Carl Gustav's.

 

[Underway]

For that 1.7% number we must have bought a massive amount of Carl Gustav's.

Nah, that extra 0.4% was just from HMCS Calgary's unanticipated docking work period costs.

 

[PrairieFella]

Problem is finding the hard numbers. What's 2% of GDP as an actual number? I think its around $58 billion? If we are on track for $37 billion already, then an extra 11.5 billion (from CCG and new spending) wil put us at $48 billion. Which means we're still $10 billion short.

But hell, I'm just grabbing some random numbers off the internet. We need someone to actually take the time and crunch the info. Also devil is in the details. Is that 9 billion in direct budget increase not including the pay increase of say 5% or whatever? And does that include this years expected budget ramp up that was put in last years budget?

I saw on Noah Gairn's substack will put everything at 62 billion. Who knows though. We probably won't for a few weeks.

 

[Remius]

Problem is finding the hard numbers. What's 2% of GDP as an actual number? I think its around $58 billion? If we are on track for $37 billion already, then an extra 11.5 billion (from CCG and new spending) wil put us at $48 billion. Which means we're still $10 billion short.

But hell, I'm just grabbing some random numbers off the internet. We need someone to actually take the time and crunch the info. Also devil is in the details. Is that 9 billion in direct budget increase not including the pay increase of say 5% or whatever? And does that include this years expected budget ramp up that was put in last years budget?

IMF has our nominal gdp at 2.333 trillion. So 45 to 50 billion as 2% wouldn’t be too far off the mark.