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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

More Iranian missiles have been launched at Israel in at least two. Possibly three waves. At least one hit Beersheba, and I’ve read of three killed there. No word on Israeli reprisal yet. The attacks are incongruent with Iranian state TV announcing that the ceasefire was accepted.

I’m not convinced either side particularly wants this purported ceasefire. I don’t think Israel will give Iran much grace in the face of continued missile strikes. This ceasefire may be stillborn if things carry on through the day the way they are now.

Iran may have targeted a missile at the Dimona reactor in the Negev. This is a nervous-making possibility; Iran has shown the ability to get missiles through if enough of a barrage is fired. While the reactor itself is quite small and unlikely to necessarily be a major disaster risk if attacked, I could see Israel going rather apeshit were Iran to land a solid hit. It’s heavily defended so hopefully we don’t see that… But Incould imagine it being something that would cross the ‘kill Khamenei’ line.
 
brihard said:
More Iranian missiles have been launched at Israel in at least two. Possibly three waves. At least one hit Beersheba, and I’ve read of three killed there. No word on Israeli reprisal yet. The attacks are incongruent with Iranian state TV announcing that the ceasefire was accepted.

I’m not convinced either side particularly wants this purported ceasefire. I don’t think Israel will give Iran much grace in the face of continued missile strikes. This ceasefire may be stillborn if things carry on through the day the way they are now.

Iran may have targeted a missile at the Dimona reactor in the Negev. This is a nervous-making possibility; Iran has shown the ability to get missiles through if enough of a barrage is fired. While the reactor itself is quite small and unlikely to necessarily be a major disaster risk if attacked, I could see Israel going rather apeshit were Iran to land a solid hit. It’s heavily defended so hopefully we don’t see that… But Incould imagine it being something that would cross the ‘kill Khamenei’ line.
Click to expand...
I'm always amused at the kill Khamenei line.

There are far more hardline clerics in Iran that Khamenei.
 
Remote BDA guesstimate...


Darya Dolzikova comments on US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities​


The precise details of any further damage that the latest US strikes have caused to Iran’s nuclear sites is unclear. However, the fundamental reality remains that military action alone can only roll back the programme by degrees, not eliminate it fully. There are thus a number of key questions to consider: how much damage to the programme is enough for Israel and the US to feel that they have reduced the programme sufficiently for the time being? What effect have the strikes had on Iran’s resolve to advance and potentially even weaponise the programme? And what are Israeli and US plans moving forward to manage what remains a persistent - albeit degraded - threat?


https://twitter.com/x/status/1936739479324389763
 
Neither can political action effect a major change or ensure it. Either you wipe it out with military action, change the government so they focus on other things, or perpetually have Inspectors roaming the country to ensure compliance, backed up with military force and economic threats.
 
Altair said:
I'm always amused at the kill Khamenei line.

There are far more hardline clerics in Iran that Khamenei.
Click to expand...
Yes, I know. It’s simply an option on the extreme of escalatory actions that has not yet been acted on. IsraeL would have to change the system of government., not merely who occupies the center seat. But if they think they’re succesfully destabilizing the regime I could see it being tried, to show the regime is vulnerable. I’m not saying it would be a wise COA.
 
Remius said:
So…cease fire seems at risk.

Trump is livid.

www.bbc.com

'Do not drop those bombs,' Trump warns Israel after it vows 'powerful strikes' on Iran - live updates

Trump uses an expletive as he criticises Israel and Iran after both sides accuse each other of breaking the ceasefire.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Click to expand...
lol, like the Israeli's will listen to him. They don't give a f*ck about Trump or what he thinks. They ONLY listen to themselves and do what they believe is right.
 
OldSolduer said:
You’re right. But the people who we liberate - I use that term loosely- have no or little experience with democracy and tend to follow whoever has the money and guns.
Click to expand...
Well, Iran at least has SOME history of what we would recognize here in the west as democracy - maybe a banana republic version of it, in some eyes, but I don't see it as anywhere near as tribal as, say, Afghanistan was. While I see more hope, I'm also a bit pessimistic about how this will play out with various versions of Muslim political organization there.

And the Kurds have a bunch of groups along various borders. No worries there, though - we know in the end that according to history, they'll get screwed anytime the West gets involved (even when they fight the same bad guys as we do) :(
 
Bit of an MSM update ...
www.aljazeera.com

Have Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire? What we know

Donald Trump said the two sides reached a ceasefire shortly after Iran attacked a US airbase in Qatar.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
www.ynetnews.com

Qatari mediation and Trump intervention: How Iran-Israel ceasefire was reached

The ceasefire is brokered in a phone call between the Qatari emir and the American president and VP Vance; Qatar receives Iran's agreement to end the fighting
www.ynetnews.com www.ynetnews.com
www.aljazeera.com

World wary as it welcomes Iran-Israel ceasefire

The world celebrate ceasefire deal but is wary of a return to hostilities, as some call for a similar deal for Gaza.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
www.timesnownews.com

'Inmates Were Transferred to...': Where Did Iran Move Prisoners After Israel Struck Notorious Evin Prison

Evin prison, known for housing political prisoners, dual nationals, journalists, and human rights defenders, was among several sites targeted by Israeli forces., Middle East News - Times Now
www.timesnownews.com www.timesnownews.com
... and tidbits from IRN media (all archived links)
 
OldSolduer said:
You’re right. But the people who we liberate - I use that term loosely- have no or little experience with democracy and tend to follow whoever has the money and guns.
Click to expand...
Sidetracking here - once "democracy" is instituted then the average person has to make decisions - like if they are going out to eat or what clothes to wear that day.
People from the old East bloc had an adjustment period because the amount of choice they had once they started living in the west was a bit overwhelming.

Back to it.
 
OldSolduer said:
Sidetracking here - once "democracy" is instituted then the average person has to make decisions - like if they are going out to eat or what clothes to wear that day.
People from the old East bloc had an adjustment period because the amount of choice they had once they started living in the west was a bit overwhelming.

Back to it.
Click to expand...
If Iran has a police force that enforces dress codes, that presumes a capacity to shop/dress outside those codes. I stand to be educated otherwise, but I suspect most of Iran’s population (WAG +75% of IRN lives in urban areas?) won’t need to be retrained on that :)
 
The Bread Guy said:
If Iran has a police force that enforces dress codes, that presumes a capacity to shop/dress outside those codes. I stand to be educated otherwise, but I suspect most of Iran’s population (WAG +75% of IRN lives in urban areas?) won’t need to be retrained on that :)
Click to expand...
I reckon once they are "free" the market will open up. Lets hope. I have watched this murderous theocracy for 46 years.
 
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