Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Czech_pivo]

Canada commits to new NATO defence spending pledge to hit 5 per cent of GDP by 2035

Well we'll see!

If we can move the needle in a meaningful way to 3%, within another 1% to the infrastructure mix by 2035, for a total of 4%, I'd say that we should be happy with that.

Its looking more and more that the price of our admission into the EU camp is our development of our raw resources in a more robust manner and those resources are bought by Europe. HOPEFULLY we do more than just ship them the raw resources and continue to the a 'drawer of water and hewer of wood.' Continuing to feel optimistic that LNG will flow from somewhere new in Canada to the EU.

 

[Czech_pivo]

And Carney never mentioned facilitating the one product that they all need (natural gas) to rid themselves of their dependence on Russia.

Read the article that I had posted earlier about Canadian Nat Gas going to Europe.

Carney shouldn't be tipping his hand as to what Canada and the EU have or have not been discussing behind closed doors. We are in the middle of a trade war with the US. Informing them of what we are looking to do with our new best friends is not in Canada's best interest. The more Trump gets a sense that 'we don't need them' or that we are diversifying our markets, the less inclined he will be in negotiating and finalizing our new trade agreement with them - from his end there is no sense of urgency then, he can let is smolder and rot, knowing that come September if a deal isn't done before the H of C sits that Carney will be hammered by the Opposition.

No, don't assume that Canada LNG going to the EU is not very much on the table just because Carney isn't crowing about it. The US ships massive amounts of LNG now to the EU, the US doesn't want us cutting into their markets.

EDIT:

Here is the article from last week -

Carney's 'grand bargain' for Canadians: New allies, gas for Europe and old debates

Canada's PM is expected to sign on to join Europe’s sweeping rearmament plan when he meets that continent’s leaders next week in Belgium.

www.saltwire.com

 

[PrairieFella]

If we can move the needle in a meaningful way to 3%, within another 1% to the infrastructure mix by 2035, for a total of 4%, I'd say that we should be happy with that.

Nevermind irresponsible socially to go any higher than 3% on defence spending. The extra 1.5% on dual-use is a shrewd caveat to the 5% calculation but spending 3.5% on strictly defence projects will inevitably result in lesser outcomes in health and education. We can't destroy our society in an attempt to secure it.

Its looking more and more that the price of our admission into the EU camp is our development of our raw resources in a more robust manner and those resources are bought by Europe. HOPEFULLY we do more than just ship them the raw resources and continue to the a 'drawer of water and hewer of wood.' Continuing to feel optimistic that LNG will flow from somewhere new in Canada to the EU.

Finishing critical minerals, or at least value adding them is imperative. If I was parliament, I'd be trying to find a way to incentivize companies, carrot or stick to invest in refinement and finishing facilities here. Maybe some sort of royalty regime where they pay less royalties if its refined and finished here and extra taxes if they export them raw.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Carney can promise whatever he wants. It's not like him or his ilk will be around when the waiter brings the bill to the table.

 

[Kirkhill]

The 1.5 ancillary is just the kicker past 3.5% to get to 5…

The 1.5% doesn’t mean you guys can spend 2% and claim 3.5%

I agree with you but I suspect that we will budget for the 2% Defence AND the 1.5% Infrastructure immediately. It is just too attractive for the politicians. All across NATO they have now been given a slush fund to pave roads in friendly ridings and declare, pace Flip Wilson, "The Donald Made Me Do It!"

Carney has now been given 40 BCAD of public money every year for at least 5 years or more than 200 BCAD to put into his Transition/Reset or whatever if he so chooses.

Meanwhile, David Eby has set the standard for oil pipelines - no federal public money. So Danielle will have to rely on private funding and whatever her tax base can leverage.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=346211143080775

 

[KevinB]

Nevermind irresponsible socially to go any higher than 3% on defence spending. The extra 1.5% on dual-use is a shrewd caveat to the 5% calculation but spending 3.5% on strictly defence projects will inevitably result in lesser outcomes in health and education. We can't destroy our society in an attempt to secure it.

Finishing critical minerals, or at least value adding them is imperative. If I was parliament, I'd be trying to find a way to incentivize companies, carrot or stick to invest in refinement and finishing facilities here. Maybe some sort of royalty regime where they pay less royalties if it’s refined and finished here and extra taxes if they export them raw.

I think you are missing the fact that a lot of Defense spending for infrastructure in the north will have the spin off of making areas viable for significant investment by industry, creating a much larger Canadian economy.
Having runways and roads, and a semblance of commercial infrastructure makes it a lot easier for companies to come in to setup their operations.

Furthermore spending in those areas will create a lot of benefits to northern communities which in itself is worthwhile.

 

[Kirkhill]

I’m thinking SK is going to sneak into the ReArmEurope. Just from a practical standpoint they have some great designs, open domestic production (unlike Europe) and are willing to work with JV’s for purchaser country domestic production, or domestic assembly.

Europe can’t even supply itself let alone any expanded production, and despite the ‘Bank’ it’s going to take time to built new manufacturing facilities and other infrastructure.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. Too much in flux just now.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'm sure that Poland would be pushing hard for this to occur as their main customer/partner in Europe.

On the other hand Macron is adamant he is going to get as much out of this for France as he can. He has been trying to exclude the UK. Is he going to make it easier for SK and Japan? Canada and Australia?

On the other hand the Battle of Waterloo anniversary was only a week ago today. SK and Japan weren't there.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Carney can promise whatever he wants. It's not like him or his ilk will be around when the waiter brings the bill to the table.

Exactly.

Also, there’s almost no chance Canadian critical minerals will be further developed in Ontario the next 20 years. Protests, lawsuits, injunctions, elections, skittish investors, politics and general hubris will take care of that.

Also, people missed something a FN Chief said to Doug Ford last week. Ford claims we need to quickly access Northern resources to fight job losses from Trumps tariffs. The chief flat out told him “Mustafa laid off from the auto plant in Windsor isn’t coming up here to work. These jobs will be for First Nations only. We aren’t building big cities up here for your people so you can destroy that too.”
Ford responded about sharing the wealth and the same chief told him Southern and Ottawa Ontario only dictate and take, it never shares and First Nations have learned that lesson and will never forget it. And that FN chief/rep is bloody well right about that.

I was born and raised in Northern Ontario (the real North, not Parry Sound and the Muskokas FFS). Even spent a couple grades in a res school. I think people in the south still don’t care to understand the resentment towards whites, the south, Ottawa bureaucrats,and especially Toronto that exists in the North. If First Nations say they won’t cooperate unless things are done their way and to their absolute maximum benefit and in particular with not much (if any) benefit to the south, then that’s the way it’s going to have to be. They couldn’t give a frig about Trump, the Canadian economy, NATO, politicians, and generally other people not from up there. And I don’t blame them one little bit.

 

[GR66]

The 1.5% Defence related infrastructure goal shouldn't be hard to meet if you include building pipelines to ship oil and natural gas to Europe to eliminate their reliance on Russian and Middle Eastern hydrocarbons in addition to northern infrastructure projects.

The 3.5% direct military spending probably won't be that hard to meet either when you consider all the major expenditures that are planned/required:

• NORAD modernization
• CSC's
• Submarines
• Kingston-class replacements
• P-8's
• F-35's
• MQ-8B's
• AEW Aircraft
• Rotary Wing Griffon replacement program
• Air Defence
• Tank replacement
• AT systems
• UAV's
• Base infrastructure improvements
• Base housing
• Ammunition stocks
• Golden Dome
• CAF Pay increases/retention bonuses
• Additional recruiting to bring CAF to full nominal strength plus possible Reserve expansion
• Etc., Etc., Etc.

 

[Kirkhill]

And Carney never mentioned facilitating the one product that they all need (natural gas) to rid themselves of their dependence on Russia.

My best case scenario now is that Carney wants private funds to sell the oil and gas in the short term so that he can tax the profits to finance his new 40 BCAD Infrastructure slush fund.

My worst case scenario is he starts spending the 40 BCAD on the never-never hoping for Green Dollars to eventuate some time in the future.

 

[KevinB]

On the other hand Macron is adamant he is going to get as much out of this for France as he can. He has been trying to exclude the UK. Is he going to make it easier for SK and Japan? Canada and Australia?

On the other hand the Battle of Waterloo anniversary was only a week ago today. SK and Japan weren't there.

Macron is one vote. He’s out for the best deal for France that he can, but he’s also been the most Hawkish of all the current EU leaders in terms of deeds and words (arguably outside of the Pole’s). Most of the rest are either words only or just silent.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

On the other hand Macron is adamant he is going to get as much out of this for France as he can. He has been trying to exclude the UK. Is he going to make it easier for SK and Japan? Canada and Australia?

On the other hand the Battle of Waterloo anniversary was only a week ago today. SK and Japan weren't there.

I don't think Poland cares what France/Marcon says, they are likley to be SK's hub in the EU and that will make Poland a direct competitor with France, Germany and Sweden in the area of defence products.

 

[KevinB]

Exactly.

Also, there’s almost no chance Canadian critical minerals will be further developed in Ontario the next 20 years. Protests, lawsuits, injunctions, elections, skittish investors, politics and general hubris will take care of that.

Also, people missed something a FN Chief said to Doug Ford last week. Ford claims we need to quickly access Northern resources to fight job losses from Trumps tariffs. The chief flat out told him “Mustafa laid off from the auto plant in Windsor isn’t coming up here to work. These jobs will be for First Nations only. We aren’t building big cities up here for your people so you can destroy that too.”
Ford responded about sharing the wealth and the same chief told him Southern and Ottawa Ontario only dictate and take, it never shares and First Nations have learned that lesson and will never forget it. And that FN chief/rep is bloody well right about that.

I was born and raised in Northern Ontario (the real North, not Parry Sound and the Muskokas FFS). Even spent a couple grades in a res school. I think people in the south still don’t care to understand the resentment towards whites, the south, Ottawa bureaucrats,and especially Toronto that exists in the North. If First Nations say they won’t cooperate unless things are done their way and to their absolute maximum benefit and in particular with not much (if any) benefit to the south, then that’s the way it’s going to have to be. They couldn’t give a frig about Trump, the Canadian economy, NATO, politicians, and generally other people not from up there. And I don’t blame them one little bit.

The reality is there is more than enough work for both to benefit if people act like adults.

Very few folks are going to want to relocate to the north (even Northern Ontario). So there will be a lot of permanent jobs for northern indigenous residents.

 

[Kirkhill]

Macron is one vote. He’s out for the best deal for France that he can, but he’s also been the most Hawkish of all the current EU leaders in terms of deeds and words (arguably outside of the Pole’s). Most of the rest are either words only or just silent.

It took Macron a long time to get to this "hawkish" position. It was dragged to it kicking and screaming. If you remember his original efforts to keep the lines open to Putin he was out-Trumping Trump. Now he has Trump doing what he was doing. He can afford to look more hawkish.

Before he was competing against Boris Johnson's UK (under both Truss and Sunak). Now he has Starmer under his wing and Meioni is no great hawk either.

It looks like Germany is turning East but the old West is retrenching. There will be more Spains.

 

[KevinB]

It took Macron a long time to get to this "hawkish" position. It was dragged to it kicking and screaming. If you remember his original efforts to keep the lines open to Putin he was out-Trumping Trump. Now he has Trump doing what he was doing. He can afford to look more hawkish.

He was hawkish before Trump came on the scene. He eventually realized that Putin was truly trying to put the USSR2.0 Band back together and that there was no reconciliation possible.

Before he was competing against Boris Johnson's UK (under both Truss and Sunak). Now he has Starmer under his wing and Meioni is no great hawk either.

It looks like Germany is turning East but the old West is retrenching. There will be more Spains.

No one is going to accept Russia absorbing Ukraine, as it is just a pit stop. Poland and the Baltics have this problem at their front door.

BoJo was the first leader to really get it, and to his undoing.

Germany is a bit of a quirky one as their new government want me to be very hawkish, but the reality of their current military situation is hampering their ability in that regard.

 

[PrairieFella]

I think you are missing the fact that a lot of Defense spending for infrastructure in the north will have the spin off of making areas viable for significant investment by industry, creating a much larger Canadian economy.
Having runways and roads, and a semblance of commercial infrastructure makes it a lot easier for companies to come in to setup their operations.

Furthermore spending in those areas will create a lot of benefits to northern communities which in itself is worthwhile.

We shall see

 

[Czech_pivo]

On the other hand Macron is adamant he is going to get as much out of this for France as he can. He has been trying to exclude the UK. Is he going to make it easier for SK and Japan? Canada and Australia?

On the other hand the Battle of Waterloo anniversary was only a week ago today. SK and Japan weren't there.

Could be the reason why Marcon stood next to Carney at the G7 and Starmer was in the back row.
There are always reasons for why a person is place in a certain spot for these types of pics.

 

[QV]

Exactly.

Also, there’s almost no chance Canadian critical minerals will be further developed in Ontario the next 20 years. Protests, lawsuits, injunctions, elections, skittish investors, politics and general hubris will take care of that.

Also, people missed something a FN Chief said to Doug Ford last week. Ford claims we need to quickly access Northern resources to fight job losses from Trumps tariffs. The chief flat out told him “Mustafa laid off from the auto plant in Windsor isn’t coming up here to work. These jobs will be for First Nations only. We aren’t building big cities up here for your people so you can destroy that too.”
Ford responded about sharing the wealth and the same chief told him Southern and Ottawa Ontario only dictate and take, it never shares and First Nations have learned that lesson and will never forget it. And that FN chief/rep is bloody well right about that.

I was born and raised in Northern Ontario (the real North, not Parry Sound and the Muskokas FFS). Even spent a couple grades in a res school. I think people in the south still don’t care to understand the resentment towards whites, the south, Ottawa bureaucrats,and especially Toronto that exists in the North. If First Nations say they won’t cooperate unless things are done their way and to their absolute maximum benefit and in particular with not much (if any) benefit to the south, then that’s the way it’s going to have to be. They couldn’t give a frig about Trump, the Canadian economy, NATO, politicians, and generally other people not from up there. And I don’t blame them one little bit.

They have learned the lessons of history well. They are also watching how other jurisdictions are treated or reacted to (Alberta) and don't want that.
This country has a long way to go before it is really united.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don't think Poland cares what France/Marcon says, they are likley to be SK's hub in the EU and that will make Poland a direct competitor with France, Germany and Sweden in the area of defence products.

Out of all those countries listed, which one hasnt screwed Poland over in the last 400yrs?
Answer - the South Koreans.