Indirect Fires Modernization Project - C3/M777 Replacement

[OldSolduer]

In its defence... Infantry want simple not exquisite. Seems kinda half way between the "regular mortar in a box that causes TBI" and "super expensive exquisite turret system".

I think the loading mechanism is clever honestly. It's very simple and not breach which is an advantage.

But yah, I see your concerns.

Highlighted area - complex weapon systems can do several things. One of them is break when you need it most. But that's not the total argument.

In a tight spot the simpler something is, its easier to use - and that can make a difference.

 

[KevinB]

What do folks think of the RUAG Cobra concept.

I like it. I think the integration that has been done with the various vehicles is terrible though.

And the launch point of the mortar is relatively far from the troops loading reducing TBI risk.

It’s a turret system that doesn’t necessarily need a turret. I think it could be easily adopted into the Stryker type open bay mortars and make into a closed turreted system that still has a lot of on board ammunition storage

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I count 48 stowed rounds in this Stryker configuration

 

[Kirkhill]

Sweden Announces Largest Ammunition Procurement Since the Cold War - Militarnyi

Sweden has placed its largest order for 155mm artillery ammunition since the 1980s. However, actual delivery volumes may be much smaller due to the high cost of the shells

militarnyi.com

Some noteworthy datapoints

The Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) signed two multi-year agreements with the Norwegian-Finnish company Nammo and the German-South African company Rheinmetall Denel Munition for the supply of 155mm shells and their propellant charges.

The total value of both contracts reached nearly half a billion dollars (approximately SEK 5 billion), making it the largest order of its kind since the 1980s.

“This is the largest artillery ammunition procurement in over 40 years,” Defense Minister Pål Jonson stated, noting that the Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the high rate of artillery shell consumption.

the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration estimated the cost of a 155mm shell with a propellant charge and fuze at $8,000 per unit.

Roughly calculating the price of such a shell against the total value of the announced contract suggests about 60,000 shells. For context, this quantity is roughly equivalent to the monthly expenditure of Ukrainian artillery units in 2024.

So buy a month's worth of shells every 40 years at a unit cost of $8000.

Meanwhile

Ukraine to buy 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025

The total cost of the procurement exceeds Hr 110 billion ($2.6 billion), with Hr 102 billion ($2.4 billion) allocated through the Defense Procurement Agency.

kyivindependent.com

4,500,000 FPV drones for $2,400,000,000 USD or a unit cost of $533

With an intention of also buying 30,000 longer range drones.

....

1 shell or 8 FPV drones?

 

[PrairieFella]

Sweden Announces Largest Ammunition Procurement Since the Cold War - Militarnyi

Sweden has placed its largest order for 155mm artillery ammunition since the 1980s. However, actual delivery volumes may be much smaller due to the high cost of the shells

militarnyi.com

Some noteworthy datapoints





So buy a month's worth of shells every 40 years at a unit cost of $8000.

Meanwhile

Ukraine to buy 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025

The total cost of the procurement exceeds Hr 110 billion ($2.6 billion), with Hr 102 billion ($2.4 billion) allocated through the Defense Procurement Agency.

kyivindependent.com

4,500,000 FPV drones for $2,400,000,000 USD or a unit cost of $533

With an intention of also buying 30,000 longer range drones.

....

1 shell or 8 FPV drones?

Now what are thr effects on the drone? Probably not anywhere near the couple hundred feet lethality radius of a 155mm. Apples and oranges.

 

[Kirkhill]

Or shall I put it another way?

You are a Ukrainian platoon commander being harassed by buddy in an open top Stryker with a 120mm mortar. Which would you call for? 1 round 155 HE or 8 FPVs?

 

[GR66]

1 shell or and 8 FPV drones?

FTFY

Weapons procurement decisions shouldn't be binary based on unit costs. "Horses for courses" as you like to say. Having one capability shouldn't require eliminating another. You can argue the weighting of different weapons in your arsenal but 155mm OR FPV's is as illogical as saying Tanks or Submarines.

 

[markppcli]

Or shall I put it another way?

You are a Ukrainian platoon commander being harassed by buddy in an open top Stryker with a 120mm mortar. Which would you call for? 1 round 155 HE or 8 FPVs?

Given the FPV hit rate, the 155 every day.

The cost estimate there also doesn’t include the costs of modification - ie mounting a warhead on the things. I suspect that changes the rice point considerably.

 

[Kirkhill]

Patient solo attacks are not the only tactic, as usage evolves. As the numbers increase, simple swarm attacks are often deployed. Denys describes “an artillery bombardment by drone” on a Russian position near the frontline town of Toretsk, in the eastern Donbas. “We dropped 1.5kg of explosives every eight minutes for three hours – by the end they had retreated.”

‘It is impossible to outrun them’: how drones transformed war in Ukraine

Small FPV drones, which travel at 37mph, have become ubiquitous, evolving from ‘a novelty to a weapon of choice’

www.theguardian.com

Shpak: Ukraine gets 10-inch drone with 11-pound bomb payload capacity

The first batch of Lithunia's new FPV Shpak quadcopter drone have been delivered to Ukraine under a $4 million contract.

interestingengineering.com

So the small FPVs with 7 to 10" rotors are delivering roughly the same amount of explosives as an 81-120 mm mortar bomb, although some can actually lift an 81mm bomb entire.

 

[dapaterson]

Given the FPV hit rate, the 155 every day.

The cost estimate there also doesn’t include the costs of modification - ie mounting a warhead on the things. I suspect that changes the rice point considerably.

How dare you bring facts to an opinion discussion.

 

[Kirkhill]

Given the FPV hit rate, the 155 every day.

The cost estimate there also doesn’t include the costs of modification - ie mounting a warhead on the things. I suspect that changes the rice point considerably.

How many 155s to take out the Stryker Mark? Not allowing for M1156s or Excaliburs.

I appreciate that there are a lot of FPVs per video but equally there are a fair number of arty rounds per AFV. Especially one that can move after the first round.

 

[Kirkhill]

How dare you bring facts to an opinion discussion.

Why have a discussion if not to ascertain facts?

 

[markppcli]

How dare you bring facts to an opinion discussion.

Well I didn’t want to bring up other silly concepts like time to effect.

 

[Kirkhill]

FTFY

Weapons procurement decisions shouldn't be binary based on unit costs. "Horses for courses" as you like to say. Having one capability shouldn't require eliminating another. You can argue the weighting of different weapons in your arsenal but 155mm OR FPV's is as illogical as saying Tanks or Submarines.

I do indeed like to keep multiple horses in my stable. But why would I use as an Arab if a pit-pony will do?

 

[markppcli]

How many 155s to take out the Stryker Mark? Not allowing for M1156s or Excaliburs.

For a mortar variety per your what if, probably one air burst will achieve suppression or neutralization.

I appreciate that there are a lot of FPVs per video but equally there are a fair number of arty rounds per AFV. Especially one that can move after the first round.

If it’s moved it’s not firing - I’ve achieved neutralization. It’s probably going to start moving once drones are detected anyways. Every source I’ve spoken to puts it at 5-9 FPV per hit - note that’s not 5-9 per mission success.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'll go a bit further.

One of the arguments used in favour of tubes over missiles (and I will include FPVs as slow moving missiles) is the relatively low cost of a dumb shell over an intelligent munition.

I suggest that the difference in the price points is narrowing.

2 years ago I think I would have been safe to say the assumption for a 155mm shell on these boards would have been closer to $1000 per shell than $10,000 and likewise the expectation for a loitering munition / drone would have started off closer to $100,000 (Switchblade 300 for example).

 

[Kirkhill]

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2025/7/7/marine-corps-struggling-to-fill-drone-gap

 

[daftandbarmy]

Or shall I put it another way?

You are a Ukrainian platoon commander being harassed by buddy in an open top Stryker with a 120mm mortar. Which would you call for? 1 round 155 HE or 8 FPVs?

As a Pl Comd I wouldn't get to pick ... I'd call in the fire mission and the gunners would do the business with whatever works best for the target.

 

[Kirkhill]

For a mortar variety per your what if, probably one air burst will achieve suppression or neutralization.



If it’s moved it’s not firing - I’ve achieved neutralization. It’s probably going to start moving once drones are detected anyways. Every source I’ve spoken to puts it at 5-9 FPV per hit - note that’s not 5-9 per mission success.

Taking a look at the situation from the point of view of those mortarmen in that Stryker, if they are engaged by 1x 155 or 8x FPV (with 1 or possibly even 2 hits (5-9 FPV per hit you said)) do you think they would be inclined to break off and relocate as you suggest? In which case, in both cases, neutralization would have been achieved. No?

 

[Kirkhill]

As a Pl Comd I wouldn't get to pick ... I'd call in the fire mission and the gunners would do the business with whatever works best for the target.

But as a Ukrainian Pl Commander you would have FPVs, as far as I understand the situation.