Pipelines

[brihard]

One of the challenges of TMX is the location of the Terminal. It limits the size of ships that can use it and requires significant tug assist to get through the narrows. However, extending the pipeline out to someplace like Roberts Bank, then puts the pipeline into an area of high seismic risk and high political cost.

Stipulated. I merely suggest that most people, when they hear Pacific think Asia when talking trade.

Those California refineries could be getting their oil overland through pipelines but buying half-full tankers* from Vancouver seems to be at least cost-competitive. That suggests that the product has value and that pipeline capacity is constrained.

* As @Colin Parkinson noted draught limitations prevent fully loading the tankers. Vancouver and Eby are discussing dredging the channel deeper.

B.C., federal government support dredging Vancouver's Burrard Inlet, others opposed

British Columbia's energy minister is backing plans to dredge and deepen Vancouver's Burrard Inlet to accommodate fully loaded oil tankers, despite concerns from environmentalists, experts and First Nations.

ca.news.yahoo.com

There are a lot of small gains that can be made quickly.

The tanker station at the end of Transmountain just finished having its navigation buoys fixed up so they can move tankers at night instead of just the day. Clear increase in efficiency. Transmountain as well is looking at adding an additive (near immediate impact) and additional pumps (within the year or two impact) to move more oil at a time. These all taken together are expected to increase the flow to 200-300 thousand more bpd. (approx 22-33% increase in volume).
They also want to dredge to get the Aframax tankers to be able to filled all the way as now they can only be partially filled due to draft issues. That's a longer term project though.

Quebec is looking at a short run to a natural gas terminal in Saugany off the existing line. Thats a multi year project but not a long term one.

BC has changed its market focus for some critical minerals.

Internal trade barriers (at least some of them) are going to be dealt with in a short while, they've already agreed on truck safety and teaching certifications (no announcement but leaks). Alberta and BC have an alcohol agreement again, and I expect Ontario to open up the LCBO for everyones alcohol shortly. A lot of this preliminary stuff is recognizing other provinces standards as acceptable everywhere.

Pullling a couple posts from back in Feb and May over from the Tariff and Alberta separatism threads- we’ve occasionally had a sidebar going on TMX oil exports out of Burrard Inlet and the discussion of depth limiting loading.

Looks like dredging has been approved, and by end 2026/early 2027, the Aframax tankers will be able to leave full (~800k bbl) versus at 70% load. This will help improve the economics of oil exports to pacific markets via the Trans Mountain pipeline.

 

[Kirkhill]

Pullling a couple posts from back in Feb and May over from the Tariff and Alberta separatism threads- we’ve occasionally had a sidebar going on TMX oil exports out of Burrard Inlet and the discussion of depth limiting loading.

Looks like dredging has been approved, and by end 2026/early 2027, the Aframax tankers will be able to leave full (~800k bbl) versus at 70% load. This will help improve the economics of oil exports to pacific markets via the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Every little bit helps.
But is incrementalism going to get us where we need/want to be in a timely fashion?

If the Northern Gateway and/or the Eagle Spirit pilpelines had not been cancelled and blockaded in 2015 we would all be a lot richer today.

And the world seems to be slow in following the Net-Zero Movement to Jerusalem (for those not aware that is what we used to call Nirvana).

 

[brihard]

Every little bit helps.
But is incrementalism going to get us where we need/want to be in a timely fashion?

If the Northern Gateway and/or the Eagle Spirit pilpelines had not been cancelled and blockaded in 2015 we would all be a lot richer today.

And the world seems to be slow in following the Net-Zero Movement to Jerusalem (for those not aware that is what we used to call Nirvana).

Likely not. And actually if this move improves the cost effectiveness of exporting via TMX that may actually increase demand somewhat, filling capacity sooner. But that’s a good problem to have and improvement is still improvement.

 

[Czech_pivo]

European Parliament president says there’s a market for Canadian oil and gas in Europe​

European Parliament president Roberta Metsola says there is a market in Europe for Canadian oil and gas, and signalled European Union (EU) nations may be willing to pay a higher price for Canadian conventional energy, as member states work to divest further from Russian energy.

“If you see how we have pivoted over the last years, we found ourselves when Russia invaded Ukraine, that we were completely, to a certain extent, reliant on a very unreliable partner for gas and oil, and that meant that we have had to divest, uncouple ourselves, and we’re almost completely done,” she told Kapelos. “To do that, we need to find alternative sources.”
When asked whether Europe is prepared to potentially absorb a higher cost of importing oil and gas in exchange for those products coming from a trusted partner, such as Canada, Metsola told Kapelos those discussions are happening “right now.”
“Where do we go? How do we pivot? At the end of the day, what do you mean by cost? We have had to go into very, very expensive divestment when we had to uncouple from Russia,” she said. “We also have other perhaps more unreliable partners in which we are importing fossil fuels, because we need to keep our energy bills low.”

European Parliament president says there’s a market for Canadian oil and gas in Europe

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola says there is a market in Europe for Canadian oil and gas, and signalled European Union nations may be willing to pay a higher price, as member states work to divest further from Russian energy.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Kirkhill]

And on the subject of Europe and Net Zero

Europe's most powerful conservative (Manfred Weber) vows to tear up net zero rules

Access Restricted

 

[foresterab]

Not pipelines per say...but still an important bit of news:

Ontario set to begin building road to the Ring of Fire

Ontario is set to begin building the road to the Ring of Fire.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Having worked in that area...some will be "fast" road but alot of it will be a slug. Hopefully they can do a bunch in the winter before the black flies come out in force.

 

[brihard]

Not pipelines per say...but still an important bit of news:

Ontario set to begin building road to the Ring of Fire

Ontario is set to begin building the road to the Ring of Fire.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Having worked in that area...some will be "fast" road but alot of it will be a slug. Hopefully they can do a bunch in the winter before the black flies come out in force.

Eventually up to Ogoki and Webequi? That’ll be quite a road project.

 

[daftandbarmy]

And who can blame them...

No oil pipeline on the list of projects of national interest​

No private company has raised a finger so far to develop such a project​

As Prime Minister Mark Carney's government prepares to announce the first projects of national interest it has selected, Radio-Canada has learned that no oil pipeline is on the list, according to three sources that have spoken to Radio-Canada.

"There is no [oil] pipeline project on the table," one of them said, despite the federal government's promise to make Canada an "energy superpower."

Carney has never ruled out the idea of supporting the construction of a new pipeline.

"We have to choose a few major projects, not necessarily pipelines, but maybe pipelines: we'll see," he said on the French-language TV show, Tout le monde en parle, during the election campaign.

The prime minister nevertheless emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus with the provinces.

Behind the scenes, a Liberal source insisted that the absence of a pipeline on the initial list does not mean that one will never happen. Approval of a natural gas pipeline project is also not out of the question.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/no-oil-pipeline-on-list-1.7629818

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Meanwhile the price of gas here has jumped 22 cents a litre in the last 2 weeks thanks to refineries closing in California.

Gas prices jump a dime overnight around Metro Vancouver

 

[lenaitch]

Eventually up to Ogoki and Webequi? That’ll be quite a road project.

Eventually. The presser says connecting several segments of existing roads" and connecting Hwy 11 and Hwy 584. Hwy 584 runs from 11 to Nakina. I suspect this project will both upgrade 584 and bypass the Geraldton townsite (the connecting link currently runs right through town).

Baby steps.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Meanwhile the price of gas here has jumped 22 cents a litre in the last 2 weeks thanks to refineries closing in California.

Opportunity knocking for others.

A difficulty with large project investments is the inability to execute quickly which exposes them to uncertainty over whether they can survive changes of government.

 

[YZT580]

And who can blame them...

No oil pipeline on the list of projects of national interest​

No private company has raised a finger so far to develop such a project​

As Prime Minister Mark Carney's government prepares to announce the first projects of national interest it has selected, Radio-Canada has learned that no oil pipeline is on the list, according to three sources that have spoken to Radio-Canada.

"There is no [oil] pipeline project on the table," one of them said, despite the federal government's promise to make Canada an "energy superpower."

Carney has never ruled out the idea of supporting the construction of a new pipeline.

"We have to choose a few major projects, not necessarily pipelines, but maybe pipelines: we'll see," he said on the French-language TV show, Tout le monde en parle, during the election campaign.

The prime minister nevertheless emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus with the provinces.

Behind the scenes, a Liberal source insisted that the absence of a pipeline on the initial list does not mean that one will never happen. Approval of a natural gas pipeline project is also not out of the question.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/no-oil-pipeline-on-list-1.7629818

Smith got it right. Until the carbon tax system is eliminated completely there will be no pipeline and without pipelines all that energy might as well stay in the ground. The liberals at least are consistent: they simply fake right first before breaking left.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

While we certainly want as many Canadians working as possible, maybe we should hire these guys to show us how it's done. It's amazing what can be accomplished when the government gets out of the way and lets industry work.

Germany built its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Wilhelmshaven in just over 15 months, starting construction in 2022 and completing it by November of the same year. This rapid development was largely due to the urgent need for alternative energy sources following the disruption of Russian gas supplies.

Wikipedia

The Guardian​

Timeline for Germany's LNG Port Construction​

Overview​

Germany's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, located in Wilhelmshaven, was constructed rapidly in response to the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The project was initiated to reduce reliance on Russian gas supplies.

Key Milestones​

February 24, 2022	Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers energy supply concerns.
February 27, 2022	Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for LNG terminals.
Mid-2022	Construction begins after regulatory approvals.
November 15, 2022	Construction completed for the floating LNG terminal.
December 17, 2022	First LNG shipment arrives, marking the terminal's commissioning.

Construction Details​

• The terminal was built to receive approximately 80 LNG tankers annually.
• It can supply about 8% of Germany's gas demand.
• The project was expedited through the LNG Acceleration Law, which simplified regulatory processes.

This rapid construction reflects Germany's urgent need to secure energy supplies and adapt to changing geopolitical circumstances.

 

[QV]

While we certainly want as many Canadians working as possible, maybe we should hire these guys to show us how it's done. It's amazing what can be accomplished when the government gets out of the way and lets industry work.

Germany built its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Wilhelmshaven in just over 15 months, starting construction in 2022 and completing it by November of the same year. This rapid development was largely due to the urgent need for alternative energy sources following the disruption of Russian gas supplies.

Wikipedia

The Guardian​

Timeline for Germany's LNG Port Construction​

Overview​

Germany's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, located in Wilhelmshaven, was constructed rapidly in response to the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The project was initiated to reduce reliance on Russian gas supplies.

Key Milestones​

February 24, 2022	Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers energy supply concerns.
February 27, 2022	Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for LNG terminals.
Mid-2022	Construction begins after regulatory approvals.
November 15, 2022	Construction completed for the floating LNG terminal.
December 17, 2022	First LNG shipment arrives, marking the terminal's commissioning.

Construction Details​

• The terminal was built to receive approximately 80 LNG tankers annually.
• It can supply about 8% of Germany's gas demand.
• The project was expedited through the LNG Acceleration Law, which simplified regulatory processes.

This rapid construction reflects Germany's urgent need to secure energy supplies and adapt to changing geopolitical circumstances.

The Canadian government does not want to build. If they did, they could. instead they will continue to stall, dither, and hope the situation changes to justify not having done anything.

 

[daftandbarmy]

While we certainly want as many Canadians working as possible, maybe we should hire these guys to show us how it's done. It's amazing what can be accomplished when the government gets out of the way and lets industry work.

Germany built its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Wilhelmshaven in just over 15 months, starting construction in 2022 and completing it by November of the same year. This rapid development was largely due to the urgent need for alternative energy sources following the disruption of Russian gas supplies.

Wikipedia

The Guardian​

Timeline for Germany's LNG Port Construction​

Overview​

Germany's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, located in Wilhelmshaven, was constructed rapidly in response to the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The project was initiated to reduce reliance on Russian gas supplies.

Key Milestones​

February 24, 2022	Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers energy supply concerns.
February 27, 2022	Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for LNG terminals.
Mid-2022	Construction begins after regulatory approvals.
November 15, 2022	Construction completed for the floating LNG terminal.
December 17, 2022	First LNG shipment arrives, marking the terminal's commissioning.

Construction Details​

• The terminal was built to receive approximately 80 LNG tankers annually.
• It can supply about 8% of Germany's gas demand.
• The project was expedited through the LNG Acceleration Law, which simplified regulatory processes.

This rapid construction reflects Germany's urgent need to secure energy supplies and adapt to changing geopolitical circumstances.

If we had 80 million people, and someone blew up our main source of energy, I'm pretty sure we'd 'grease the wheels' on those permits etc pretty nicely.

 

[YZT580]

While we certainly want as many Canadians working as possible, maybe we should hire these guys to show us how it's done. It's amazing what can be accomplished when the government gets out of the way and lets industry work.

Germany built its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Wilhelmshaven in just over 15 months, starting construction in 2022 and completing it by November of the same year. This rapid development was largely due to the urgent need for alternative energy sources following the disruption of Russian gas supplies.

Wikipedia

The Guardian​

Timeline for Germany's LNG Port Construction​

Overview​

Germany's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, located in Wilhelmshaven, was constructed rapidly in response to the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The project was initiated to reduce reliance on Russian gas supplies.

Key Milestones​

February 24, 2022	Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers energy supply concerns.
February 27, 2022	Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for LNG terminals.
Mid-2022	Construction begins after regulatory approvals.
November 15, 2022	Construction completed for the floating LNG terminal.
December 17, 2022	First LNG shipment arrives, marking the terminal's commissioning.

Construction Details​

• The terminal was built to receive approximately 80 LNG tankers annually.
• It can supply about 8% of Germany's gas demand.
• The project was expedited through the LNG Acceleration Law, which simplified regulatory processes.

This rapid construction reflects Germany's urgent need to secure energy supplies and adapt to changing geopolitical circumstances.

From the Ontario majority string, the proposed road development near Geraldton is in year 6 of discussion.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

From the Ontario majority string, the proposed road development near Geraldton is in year 6 of discussion.

Yeah, I saw that. Friggin nuts.

I'm not sure whether this is part of it or whether I have the details right.

If this is part of the wish list, FN can sit at the table and voice concerns but not demand anything. They have no veto or say.
Carney can wave all studies and assessments.

Pretty well anything on the list should be shovel ready with no barriers to startup.

Have I got that right?

 

[Cloud Cover]

Hiway 69 has been under construction since 1993.

In any other developed country it would have been done by 2000.