The War in Ukraine

[ueo]

To be fair, he has likley done more than Obama ever did for his....

It's now a very low bar.

Big TACO Award

Sent more parts and mechanics.

We get those where?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Overview of Russia's "Polish Poke" from the Institute for the Study of War from last night's summary ...

Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on September 10 that at least 19 drones violated Polish airspace overnight and that a significant portion of the drones entered the country from airspace over Belarus.[1] Tusk confirmed that Poland shot down three drones and possibly downed a fourth as of the afternoon of September 10.[2] Tusk noted that Polish authorities are still confirming the number of drones that violated Polish airspace and the number of downed drones. Tusk reported that the aerial incursion lasted about seven hours, starting at 2330 local time on September 9 until 0630 on September 10. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that as many as 24 Russian drones entered Polish airspace overnight.[3] NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reported that NATO scrambled Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35 fighter jets, Italian airborne early warning and control (AWACS) planes, and NATO mid-air refueling aircraft in order to intercept the drones over Poland.[4] NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) reported on September 10 that Polish authorities put German Patriot air defense systems on alert in response to the incursion, and Rutte confirmed that German Patriots participated in efforts to repel the drone incursion.[5] Tusk invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on the morning of September 10 in response to the incursion.[6] Article 4 states that a NATO member state can call a meeting to consult on any issue in which the “territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any Parties is threatened” and that fellow member states are encouraged to respond to the situation.[7] NATO states last invoked Article 4 with the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[8]

The large number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional Russian effort. Tusk stated that this is the first time that a significant portion of the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus and that the scale of the incursion was unusual.[9] Tusk stated that previous Russian drone incursions of Polish airspace were due to “mistakes” (possibly referring to operator error), drone disorientation from electronic warfare (EW), or the result of smaller scale Russian provocations. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on September 10 that drones have entered Polish airspace six times during the full-scale invasion, with the first occurrence in November 2022, and that a total of at least seven drones and one missile have fallen on Polish territory during the war.[10] The September 9-10 incursion of at least nineteen drones in a single night is notable and is roughly three times the number of projectiles that have fallen in Poland in the entire war. It is unlikely that such a number of drones could have all entered into Polish airspace by accident or as a result of a technical or operator error.

At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones, and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer 2025. A Polish military official stated to Reuters on September 10 that at least some of the Russian drones in Polish airspace were Gerbera drones.[11] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov posted an image on September 10 of one of the downed drones and reported that it was a non-reconnaissance version of a Gerbera decoy drone without cameras.[12] The Russian Gerbera drone is a decoy drone designed to mimic Shahed- and Geran-type drones in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.[13] Beskrestnov also reported that he has documented Russian Shahed-type drones with Polish SIM cards recently.[14] Polish journalist Marek Budzisz reported on July 10 that a report written by unspecified sources and published on July 2 stated that the Ukrainian military had recovered Russian drones with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards and that these SIM cards could indicate Russian preparations to test strike corridors in Poland and Lithuania.[15] Russia may have been preparing for the September 9-10 incursion for months, further indicating that the incursion was not an accident or the result of Ukrainian EW interference.

Russian officials denied that the drones came from Russia and attempted to deflect blame onto Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 10 that Russia did not target anything “for destruction” on Polish territory in their overnight strike series and that the maximum flight range of the drones that Russian forces launched overnight against Ukraine was 700 kilometers and therefore could not have violated Polish airspace.[16] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the Russian MoD’s claims “debunk” Polish “myths,” which the Russian MFA claimed aim to further escalate the war in Ukraine.[17] A Ukrainian source reported, however, that Russia may have equipped the drones with auxiliary fuel tanks that could have extended their range beyond 700 kilometers and that Russia may have modified these drones to be different than the ones Russia uses against Ukraine, casting doubts on the Russian MoD’s claim about the drone ranges.[18] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the drone incursion into Poland and claimed that the EU and NATO accuse Russia of provocations every day without evidence.[19] The Polish MFA summoned the Russian Chargé d’affaires to Poland Andrey Ordash in response to the airspace violation.[20] Ordash claimed to journalists after the meeting that the drones came from the direction of Ukraine, that Russia has not received any evidence that the drones were of Russian origin, and that Russia does not anticipate Poland being able to present any such evidence. Ordash claimed that Poland constantly blames Russia for emergencies in Poland.

Belarusian officials attempted to deny any involvement in the Russian drone incursion despite evidence that the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus. The Belarusian MoD posted a statement from Belarusian First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Major General Pavel Muraveiko claiming that Belarusian forces were tracking drones that lost their flight paths due to unspecified electronic warfare (EW) during Russia’s and Ukraine’s overnight “exchange” of drone strikes.[21] Muraveiko claimed that Belarusian forces destroyed some of the “lost” drones over Belarusian territory and exchanged information about the “air and radar situation” with Polish and Lithuanian forces about unknown drones approaching their countries. Muraveiko claimed that this information exchange allowed Poland to respond promptly to the drones and scramble their forces, and that Poland also informed Belarus about a drone approaching Belarus from Ukraine. The Belarusian MoD is implying that the drones may not have been Russian or that Ukrainian EW may have been responsible for the violations of Polish airspace. The Russian drone incursion into Poland notably comes against the backdrop of the upcoming September 12 to 16 Belarusian-Russian Zapad-2025 joint military exercise and Tusk’s September 9 announcement to close the Polish-Belarusian border starting September 11 due to the Zapad exercise.[22]

Russia is likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance. NATO SHAPE stated that this was the first time that NATO aircraft had engaged potential threats in NATO airspace.[23] Russia is likely trying to probe Poland’s and NATO’s defensive capabilities and reaction times while observing their command and control (C2) structure in action. Russia likely also aimed to test the interoperability of NATO member states working to neutralize a threat in NATO airspace. Russia has been engaged in a years-long hybrid warfare campaign against Europe, including instances of EW interference and GPS jamming, sabotage missions, arson attacks, and attempted assassinations.[24] Russia has been gradually expanding these hybrid efforts, and Russia’s violation of Polish airspace is part of this campaign that aims, in part, to test NATO and NATO states’ tactical and rhetorical reactions. The drone incursion likely also aims to gauge the level of domestic support in Poland and other NATO member states for NATO collective defense, particularly at a time when support for Ukraine is a sensitive topic in Poland’s domestic information space. ISW continues to assess that Russia is engaged in a multipronged effort to prepare for a potential future Russia-NATO war, including by preparing its society, militarizing its youth, building up its military infrastructure on its western border, and spreading narratives that Russia may try to use to justify future aggression against NATO.[25] Efforts to test NATO’s technical capabilities and political resolve are likely part of this multipronged campaign, and Russia appears to be growing bolder in terms of what sort of escalation it is willing to test.

Russia is likely also attempting to limit or deter Western military aid to Ukraine. Reuters reported that an unspecified senior military source stated that at least five of the drones’ flight paths indicated that they were flying toward Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland, which is NATO’s main arms supply hub for Ukraine.[26] Russia may have aimed to strike the airport in order to obstruct the delivery of Western aid to Ukraine. Russia may also aim to damage popular support in Poland and Europe more broadly for continued aid provisions to Ukraine out of fear of provoking future Russian strikes. The Kremlin is likely trying to use the official Russian and Belarusian responses to the incursion to accelerate the spread of narratives within Poland itself that this was a Ukrainian provocation.[27] Russia is likely trying to exploit ongoing domestic debates within Poland about support for Ukraine, and Russia notably conducted information operations to try to influence the May 2025 Polish presidential election.[28]

Russian milbloggers amplified various narratives to refute Western reporting about the Russian violation of Polish airspace, many of which cohered with official Russian and Belarusian responses. While milbloggers generally offered various theories about the drone incursion, they largely coalesced around the narrative that Russia was not to blame. Many of the Russian milbloggers responded before the Kremlin, demonstrating the Kremlin’s successes in coopting a large portion of the milblogger community and shaping the Russian information space such that the Kremlin’s anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western narratives dominate. Russian milbloggers claimed that Polish authorities offered no evidence or weak evidence to prove that the drones were Russian.[29] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian EW affected the Russian drones, forcing them to divert from their flight paths.[30] Milbloggers also alleged that the drones were Ukrainian or that the incursion was a Ukrainian provocation using Russian Gerbera drones that Russia previously launched against Ukraine in Spring 2025.[31] Select milbloggers directly called for future Russian drone strikes against Poland, including against the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, claiming that these strikes would be justified due to Poland’s prominent role in producing weapons for and supplying aid to Ukraine.[32] One milblogger threatened Russian strikes on any defense industrial enterprises in Europe that are helping the Ukrainian war effort in the future.[33] Some milbloggers claimed that the Russian incursion was accidental, but that NATO’s response was weak, so Russia should deliberately strike Poland in the future.[34]

 

[Skysix]

Cost/Benefit thumbnail sketch:

USSR 2.0 drones about 50k each (average of decoys to live drones that attempted to return to the Belarus Oblast arbitrarily set at $50k as likely many more decoys than drones were used and there is a cost difference between them)

4 drones shot at successfully, $2.2 million per missile. Lets assume only 1 shot per hit and maybe 1 miss for Murphy's sake. $11M lets say $10m just in case some ground based non-missile solution was used (it does not seem any Patriots actually launched although some batteries likely were activated - I stand to be corrected).

But that should not be the cost used in calculating the benefit. It is likely unknowable unless the shooter is within mark 1 eye ball range in daylight with an experienced drone hunter as to precisely what the target is. That is kinda the point of (longer range) decoys sent to map/test air defence coverage, response times and threat magnitude.

The real cost is an opportunity cost. 'What If' any of those 4 shot down had successfully engaged targets with live warheads and were triaged as harmless / left to hit their target; potentially a hospital, apartment block, headquarters, military airfield (although I have not seen any indication yet of a Geran cluster munition variant - something I hope Ukraine is working on it they do not have one already), refinery or other high value target whose value might easily be in the 10's of millions not including loss of life costs to the state, society and the individuals family.

With that in mind the 'Fox 2 ' (AIM-9 Sidewinder - Infared homing) decision is an easy one, even the far more expensive 'Fox 3' (AIM-120 AMRAAM - Radar homing) decision. The unforgiving never tiring bitey things circling your head at night sleep depriving (cue the NFB Blackfly cartoon) WW4/CW2 factor is the absolute shallowness of the "do not dive here / no lifeguard (US) on duty" NATO magazine depth; the ENTIRE collective Wests completely inexcusable scataphillic ostrich proclivities that STILL have prevented adequate contracts being issued, budgets increased, doctrines and war plans revised/updated/trained, and re-election fear tendencies squashed.

The West is so far behind the 8 ball you need a 4-16x50 S&B scope to read it. With luck we might beat a surplus CUCV's downhill 0-60 time in months not seconds.

 

[Skysix]

Unconfirmed reports that some or possibly all the drones that flew into Poland may have been using Polish SIM cards in their routers.

Edit: Additional.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965691535896252875

Notice how they avoided the part of Southern Poland along the border with Ukraine that has a big buildup of forces.

That bag on the front of the crashed decoy/drone (likely not one of the shot down ones) is a partially empty extended range fuel bladder replacing the warhead to attempt (unsuccessfully, other photos show about 20% fuel remaining (to enable deeper penetration. But like (or so I have been told) Soviet condoms it is about as successful in doing its job. Forgot about the longterm effects of changing CGravity -vs CLift -vs CThrust with respect to angle of attack, fuel pickup and stall speed on actual range increase at altitude perhaps?


BTW for those bot hunting bots that look at time zones, posting times and ISP locations, I work in a critical access hospital ER on the night shift.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Overview of Russia's "Polish Poke" from the Institute for the Study of War from last night's summary ...
View attachment 95660

The cluster of drones by the borders of the 3 countries, without a better zoom in option, it looks like its clustered around the area of 2 west-east main roads running from Poland into Belarus - Hwy's E30 and 63 - direct to Warsaw from Belarus. Almost like someone was planning of saturating that areas defenses before an invasion.

 

[Skysix]

Just add AI for when out of FPV range, more lithium for range, beefier motors to spin dual 45° offset props per shaft and a frag grenade. Stir, update from 2018 tech and give to Ukraine as an anti drone SHORAD.

No, wait, they did that already

 

[Skysix]

How many of these 7 steps have our current crop of political masters leaders managers even attempted? Let alone become proficient in? Yet they still demand our respect (votes)

 

[KevinB]

So Poland to send Military into Ukraine to learn how to fight drones...

Zelenskiy urges allies to rethink air defence after Poland drone intrusion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Kyiv's allies on Thursday to rethink their own air defence capabilities after incursions into Polish airspace by drones that Warsaw said were Russian.

www.reuters.com

I'll be curious how this ends up.

 

[daftandbarmy]

So Poland to send Military into Ukraine to learn how to fight drones...

Zelenskiy urges allies to rethink air defence after Poland drone intrusion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Kyiv's allies on Thursday to rethink their own air defence capabilities after incursions into Polish airspace by drones that Warsaw said were Russian.

www.reuters.com

I'll be curious how this ends up.

I have an idea...

 

[Cloud Cover]

Does he mean 3 squadrons? Or is this is a joke?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Does he mean 3 squadrons? Or is this is a joke?

If that clip came from us, I’d say 3 planes was legit.

 

[QV]

Does he mean 3 squadrons? Or is this is a joke?

He must mean squadrons... I understand air patrols are in pairs at least??

 

[brihard]

He must mean squadrons... I understand air patrols are in pairs at least??

A two ship flight plus a spare perhaps?

Pretty chintzy if so.