Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Kirkhill]

With an unknown number of Russian troops located inside the country? That would get hot and nasty right quick.

Italy was hot and nasty before and after. Partisan activity was as common there as it was in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and the Baltics.

How many Russians are in those countries today?

My point is Belarus may be Lukashenko but Lukashenko is a man, an individual. Like all individuals he is subject to Maslow's hierarchy. Breathing ranks high.

 

[Rifleman62]

Anyone know how effective the Belarus military is? Do they need Russian officers to oversee their operations?

 

[McG]

In September 1943 Italy deposed Mussolini and joined the Allies on October 13, 1943. Rome didn't fall until June 4, 1944.

Is it impossible to conceive of a situation where Lukashenko changes sides?

Italy switched sides. Mussolini did not.

 

[Kirkhill]

Italy switched sides. Mussolini did not.

True that.

So Lukashenko has the examples of both Mussolini and Ceaucescu to consider when planning his retirement.

 

[Czech_pivo]

True that.

So Lukashenko has the examples of both Mussolini and Ceaucescu to consider when planning his retirement.

Well, he's got 3 sons so if he's smart he should be planning for their survival, not his own.

Mussolini and Ceaucescu's kids survived their parents downfall. The kids of Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein did not.

 

[Good2Golf]

With an unknown number of Russian troops located inside the country? That would get hot and nasty right quick.

Poland:

 

[daftandbarmy]

Anyone know how effective the Belarus military is? Do they need Russian officers to oversee their operations?

Doesn't look all that great from these comments:

Is the Belarusian military an effective fighting force?​

Short answer: no

Long answer: nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

To be more serious, the Belarusian armed forces are tiny and terribly funded. 63,000 people is not nothing (note: different sources have different counts from all the reasons you'd expect like base years or standards for qualifying as military, so these are rough numbers), it puts it in line with some of the smaller European armies like Romania, but while Romania has a budget of $8.7 billion, the Belarussian military budget is 1/10th the size at $880M, and nobody has ever accused Romania of being a military powerhouse. $880M is a lot of money, but it is also smaller than 4300 of the world's largest publicly listed companies' yearly revenue. $0.88B puts it in-line with Shutterstock and Cargurus, and when your military spend less than what the general public spends reading shitty AI-generated articles on cars, it presents a serious issue to readiness rates. The vast majority of Belarussia's armed personnel are actually paramilitary intended for internal policing and suppression of dissent, and really the primary purpose for all armed men in these post-Soviet states was as a truncheon for the autocrat.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/1euvhlm/is_the_belarusian_military_an_effective_fighting

 

[Good2Golf]

Any bets on how long it takes President Tusk to kick out invite US 5 Corps to leave Poland and redeploy to CONUS?

Poland to Trump: Russian drones were no mistake

Poland and other European countries are calling the incident intentional.

www.politico.eu

 

[HavokFour]

Any bets on how long it takes President Tusk to kick out invite US 5 Corps to leave Poland and redeploy to CONUS?

Poland to Trump: Russian drones were no mistake

Poland and other European countries are calling the incident intentional.

www.politico.eu

Posted in the other thread. Right hand doesn't know what the left is doing.

"The United States stands by our NATO allies in the face of these alarming airspace violations," acting U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Dorothy Shea told the 15-member body.

The remarks appear aimed at assuaging Washington's NATO allies after U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said Russia's alleged drone incursion into Poland could have been a mistake.

Shea also noted Russia has intensified its bombing campaign against Ukraine since Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska as part of his bid to broker an end to Moscow's more than three-year war in Ukraine

"These actions, now with the addition of violating the airspace of a U.S. ally – intentionally or otherwise – show immense disrespect for good-faith U.S. efforts to bring an end to this conflict," Shea said.

US vows to defend NATO territory after suspected Russian drone incursion in Poland

The United States told the United Nations Security Council on Friday it would "defend every inch of NATO territory" after a suspected Russian drone incursion into Poland.

www.reuters.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

Poland:
View attachment 95703

Not enough white-hot Katyn-driven rage showing, but pretty good

 

[The Bread Guy]

Posted in the other thread. Right hand doesn't know what the left is doing.

She’s only saying what she’s told to say, while POTUS47 says whatever he wants whenever he wants.

 

[Good2Golf]

US vows to defend NATO territory after suspected Russian drone incursion in Poland

The United States told the United Nations Security Council on Friday it would "defend every inch of NATO territory" after a suspected Russian drone incursion into Poland.

www.reuters.com

Classic Russian gaslighting/psyops…

He [Russian UN Ambassador] said Moscow was willing to speak with Poland "if the Polish side indeed is interested in reducing tensions rather than fomenting tensions."

 

[OldSolduer]

True that.

So Lukashenko has the examples of both Mussolini and Ceaucescu to consider when planning his retirement.

I recall the days the Romanians overthrew that murderous regime. The Ceaucescus were not remorseful in the least.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I recall the days the Romanians overthrew that murderous regime. The Ceaucescus were not remorseful in the least.

Merry Christmas 1989.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Well, he's got 3 sons so if he's smart he should be planning for their survival, not his own.

Mussolini and Ceaucescu's kids survived their parents downfall. The kids of Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein did not.

He wanted to leave in 2020. Russia told him no.

Right now he IS acting in the best interest of their survival as Russia likely won’t let him leave alive. Bit of a rock and a hard place.

 

[RangerRay]

Never say never, and when I was keeping closer track of BLR stuff, I noticed he'd always walk a bit of a tightrope of chumming up to RUS while not being umbilically tied to it. Overall, I'd bet against him flipping westward, but who the hell knows these days?

I'd go with @daftandbarmy's and @MrWhyt's takes about it being safer for this guy to avoid upper-floor windows, tea from Russians, door knobs or men with umbrellas for at least a bit. I'm sure that's what his insurer would advise

I dunno. Considering Putin is the reason he didn’t get Ceausescu’d a few years ago, I can’t see Lukashenko turning his back on Putin now.

 

[Altair]

I dunno. Considering Putin is the reason he didn’t get Ceausescu’d a few years ago, I can’t see Lukashenko turning his back on Putin now.

Belarus is about to collapse economically.

After the EU, USA and Canada sanctioned Belarus their economy shifted to Russia. Before the war, the EU and Ukraine used to be their biggest trading partners.

Being linked to Russia economically is a bad idea, as inflation in Russia had a spillover effect in Belarus. Lukashenko put in place price controls, but with staples such as potatoes, the cost to make them didn't stop increasing, this without the ability to raise prices, stuff like potatoes became unprofitable to produce.

So not only do Belarus farmers make less potatoes, the potatoes they do make, they export to Russia.

So Belarus cannot feed its own people, their IT and manufacturing sectors are collapsing as the Russian economy cools, inflation is rising again, and since they are cut off from international capital markets, they cannot borrow money to make up for budget shortfalls.

If there was ever a time to move away from Russia for Belarus, it's now.

 

[Rifleman62]

If there was ever a time to move away from Russia for Belarus, it's now.

Not right now with all the Russian troops there on a FTX.

 

[HavokFour]

Yep, TACO'd. All those "2 weeks" and the recent 50 days was shockingly for nothing. Going for the full on stall now.

Trump presses NATO nations to halt Russian oil purchases

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a letter to NATO nations on Saturday, urging them to stop buying Russian oil and impose major sanctions on Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[FJAG]

What dreamland place does this moron live in?

It seems Putin has nothing to do with the war - just Biden and Zelensky.

Türkiye is a big oil importer while Hungary, France, Slovakia and Belgium less so. Overall, European oil imports have dropped from US$16 billion in the first quarter of 2021 to just US$1.7 billion in the 1Q of 2025.

OTOH, the US is still importing Russian fertilizer from Russia to the tune of US$1 billion the first half of 2025 and another US$0.75 billion of uranium and plutonium in the same period. Pot / kettle.

Let's get real. This is nothing more than a set up for Trump to do squat and blame other folks.