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2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

brihard

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Seems like this has been brewing up enough to perhaps merit its own thread, so here we go.

Noteworthy travel advisory form the State Department today: they're recommending avoiding U.S. government facilities in Trinidad and Tobago over the weekend due to a 'heightened state of alert'. T&T is scant miles off the coast of Venezuela.


 
Well we have earlier reports of helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, plus B-52s flying off the coast is probably a good warning that something may be in the works.


Operation 'Regime Change' is probably just around the corner. May have something to do with sharing that Nobel with the current opposition leader ;)


Trump’s moves against Venezuela sound familiar for a reason​



The US government appears on paper to be assembling parts for a regime change in Venezuela.

► The US military has been firing on what it says are drug-trafficking boats tied to Venezuela.

► President Donald Trump acknowledged authorizing covert CIA operations in the South American country.

► There’s a US Navy buildup in the Caribbean, but in a strange development, on Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the sudden departure of the commander overseeing them, Adm. Alvin Holsey.

► The Venezuelan opposition leader and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado has endorsed US military intervention, including during an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday.

“Why do you want your country’s future to be decided by US military intervention?” Amanpour asked.

Machado was barred from running for office by Venezuela’s longtime strongman leader Nicolás Maduro, whose brutal rule has caused a mass exodus of millions of emigrants from the country, including to the US. His 2024 reelection was widely dismissed as illegitimate.


 
I'm starting to wonder if there is a map of the world in the Oval Office that he just throws darts at to decide what to do next.
 
it'll be a 3 day Special Military Operation
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy ....
InOutVenezuelaAdventure.jpg

Besides, even the EU's disinformation machine says there was "no evidence pointing to any foreign involvement in the protests in Venezuela" after last year's elections, right? Not to mention that whole "regime change" misunderstanding 4 years ago.
;)

Mind you, some small-c conservatives in the US say regime change may only be optimal for a specific group of Americans:

To mangle Eisenhower's Defence Secretary' quote, "what's good for Exxon is good for America"?

Interesting times, as they say ...
 
Yes. That turned out well for the last person who tried that.
IF the US moves into Venezuela its NOT a good thing for Canada. The US would be in a position to ship VZ heavy oil over to the US gulf coast refineries cheaper than continuing to take heavy oil from Alberta.

IF the US moves into VZ, anyone opposing shipping our oil to the West AND East coast should be considered opposing the future success of Canada. VZ has the world's largest oil reserves, if the US effectively gains access/control of them there is a limited upside to the US's need for our oil on a go forward basis.
 
Easy peasy, lemon squeezy ....
View attachment 96326

Besides, even the EU's disinformation machine says there was "no evidence pointing to any foreign involvement in the protests in Venezuela" after last year's elections, right? Not to mention that whole "regime change" misunderstanding 4 years ago.
;)

Mind you, some small-c conservatives in the US say regime change may only be optimal for a specific group of Americans:

To mangle Eisenhower's Defence Secretary' quote, "what's good for Exxon is good for America"?

Interesting times, as they say ...

Coincidentally, Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and a fan girl opposition leader with a Nobel Peace Prize:

Venezuelan coup leader María Corina Machado vows to privatize oil: US corporations will ‘make a lot of money’​


2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, a US government-funded far-right coup leader, vowed to privatize Venezuela’s oil. US companies will “make a lot of money”, she told Donald Trump Jr. in an interview.


 
Ah, reminds me of the heady days when the US was going to invade Iraq and pump all its oil for US benefit. Neo-cons must be giddy with excitement. If regime change is in the wind, Bolton must be chagrined that he's outside the playroom right now.
 
IF the US moves into Venezuela its NOT a good thing for Canada. The US would be in a position to ship VZ heavy oil over to the US gulf coast refineries cheaper than continuing to take heavy oil from Alberta.

IF the US moves into VZ, anyone opposing shipping our oil to the West AND East coast should be considered opposing the future success of Canada. VZ has the world's largest oil reserves, if the US effectively gains access/control of them there is a limited upside to the US's need for our oil on a go forward basis.

Of course if the US moves into VZ a lot would demand on how much opposition they could expect. On one hand people may welcome them with open arms. Or the US might find themselves in the middle of a guerilla war a la Vietnam.

Any US excursion into VZ could also result in a massive political backlash from neighbouring countries.
 
Of course if the US moves into VZ a lot would demand on how much opposition they could expect. On one hand people may welcome them with open arms. Or the US might find themselves in the middle of a guerilla war a la Vietnam.

Any US excursion into VZ could also result in a massive political backlash from neighbouring countries.
None of the neighbors like Venezuela. Most would be tickled pink if there was a regime change.

However Trump will crumble if he goes into Venezuela, as it’s hard to be the ‘President of Peace’ and run an invasion. He sold his base on withdrawal from overseas - and while the hard core base has the brains of a gnat and the willingness of a death cult to follow each weird tune he sings, the majority of his voters won’t be happy.
 
Ah, reminds me of the heady days when the US was going to invade Iraq and pump all its oil for US benefit. Neo-cons must be giddy with excitement. If regime change is in the wind, Bolton must be chagrined that he's outside the playroom right now.
I truly hope that there are those bright enough left
Of course if the US moves into VZ a lot would demand on how much opposition they could expect. On one hand people may welcome them with open arms. Or the US might find themselves in the middle of a guerilla war a la Vietnam.

Any US excursion into VZ could also result in a massive political backlash from neighbouring countries.
I don't think that the US really cares what Brazil thinks right about now. As for Colombia, Trump is already making it pretty plain what his thought are.

Venezuelans have become dirt poor over the last 25+ yrs of their 'Socialist' experiment. They went from being one of the wealthiest countries in LA to rivalling Cuba/Haiti as the poorest. The chance of their regaining even a 1/3 of their former wealth would be a massive move in the daily life experiences for 90% of the population.

I hope that there are enough bright people left in our Foreign Affairs department who have the right ears of Sr CDN Gov't officials and politicians to press upon them the seriousness of the situation to Canada if the US moves into VZ and does regime change. Their heavy oil is much easier to extract, will have 100% less environmental restrictions, is almost at tide water already and would be cheaper to produce and ship to the US Gulf Coast refineries than Alberta oil sands.

I view this situation as a serious threat to our well-being.
 
... However Trump will crumble if he goes into Venezuela, as it’s hard to be the ‘President of Peace’ and run an invasion ....
Ah, but they can always dust off the old "we're here to free them from the shackles of (insert enemy of the day here) - lookit all those folks wanting to be free!" narrative material from <checks notes> many other such attempts from previous Republican or Democrat administrations, right?

Also, Marines & gunboats aren't the only tools in the belt when it comes to ... gently prodding/encouraging/supporting colour revolutions, especially in that part of the world :) In fact, it appears there may already be a ton of stuff already on the shelf from the POTUS45 days ...

Late edit to add: And let's not forget the old-timey classics as well :)
 
The silver lining to a Jacksonian Imperialist’s military adventurism in the south is that he’s distracted from thinking about military adventurism to his north … for now.
 
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