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Political impacts of Ukraine war

Most wars have some exchange of land when it's all over. I haven’t read the plan, so no idea what else is there. Just what the news has reported
Trading land for peace to get out of a long slow bleed might be worthwhile, but not if its only a temporary cessation of hostilities together with a bunch of conditions which have the practical effect of keeping Ukraine weak.

Escalate and win.
Trade land for peace and immediate NATO membership for Ukraine.
Do just enough to keep the war going.
Trade land for a delay before Russia takes the next bite.

Either the first or second is reasonable, but not the third or fourth.
 
Europe's counter-proposal has been released. Reuters was lightning fast getting this out, noticing several minor formatting errors.


1. Ukraine's sovereignty to be reconfirmed.

2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.

(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: "There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.")

4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.

5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees

6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.

7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.

8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.

9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland

10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5
a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee
b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee
c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated

12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:
a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts
b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities
c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas
d. Infrastructure development
e. Mineral and natural resource extraction
f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy
a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
c. Russia to be invited back into the G8
14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.

15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement

16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine

17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT

19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

21. Territories

Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.

22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation

23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:
a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All
b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children
c. There will be a family reunification program
d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict

25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.

26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.

28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.
 
Pretty much, yeah.

In any case, a security guarantee from Trump is not worth the paper it’s printed on.
Not to mention it does nothing for Ukraine if trump leaves office, assuming it had any inherent value to begin with.
 
Pretty much, yeah.

In any case, a security guarantee from Trump is not worth the paper it’s printed on.

As it is from most politicians. I doubt many are helping Ukraine because 'it's the right thing to do.' They do it to stay on the good side of their alliance buddies. To make gobs of money for their defence industries. And only as long as they remain popular with voters, amongst other reasons. Politicians build careers by being mercenary.

On the NATO note, once an agreement is signed, give it six months then make Ukraine a member. Russia is having trouble with one country. I doubt they would go back and try it again if NATO was fully involved. Let them rant and bitch. We've seen little, if anything, to give us concern over their capabilities, IMO.
 
As it is from most politicians. I doubt many are helping Ukraine because 'it's the right thing to do.' They do it to stay on the good side of their alliance buddies. To make gobs of money for their defence industries. And only as long as they remain popular with voters, amongst other reasons. Politicians build careers by being mercenary.

On the NATO note, once an agreement is signed, give it six months then make Ukraine a member. Russia is having trouble with one country. I doubt they would go back and try it again if NATO was fully involved. Let them rant and bitch. We've seen little, if anything, to give us concern over their capabilities, IMO.
I think in the European context, most of the support for Ukraine is out of a consensus that has formed regarding the need to contain Russia.
 
"Robust". Everything is "robust". I've learned to interpret "robust" as "whatever effort we decide to make at the time". I predict a lot of grey faces in NATO if Russia pushes the lever at 10(c) requiring a "robust coordinated military response" and makes it clear they're willing to go back to a tens-of-thousands-dead-on-both-sides war.

I didn't know NATO needed permission to station fighter jets in a NATO member (Poland).
 
being in NATO doesn't mean you give up your sovereignty
In the context of a proposed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, I doubt a clause has been inserted by which Poland consents to a NATO presence. It sounds more like asking permission from Russia.
 
In the context of a proposed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, I doubt a clause has been inserted by which Poland consents to a NATO presence. It sounds more like asking permission from Russia.
Poland is a NATO member, any basing of NATO forces on their territory would require their agreement, it wouldn't be part of the European proposal without their agreement. It's not asking permission from russia, it's laying out the terms in their peace plan.
 
Poland is a NATO member, any basing of NATO forces on their territory would require their agreement, it wouldn't be part of the European proposal without their agreement. It's not asking permission from russia, it's laying out the terms in their peace plan.
Whatever it is, it's an internal NATO matter. Whatever NATO is planning on doing amongst its members doesn't need to be part of a Ukraine-Russia peace settlement.

Regardless, it's far from the most amusing point of the deal, and very far from being the most harmful.

Red lines are credibility shredders, unless you really, really, really mean to follow through and you believe your political successors can somehow be so bound as well. If it doesn't last and the Europeans flinch, Putin pwns them.
 
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