Political impacts of Ukraine war

[HavokFour]

Got any better sources?

It's a graph that shows a linear progression. It shows that Russian gains are getting easier and are growing exponentially.

Your post wreaks of "this isn't saying what I want it to say, therefore, it must be wrong".

It's gotten so bad that all the usual sources have just stopped reporting. Wikipedia stopped updating their maps in September after the latest Russian push. Maps they had updated daily since the beginning of the war.

Only commenting on the single source of (biased) data used, which is a bit strange because presumably someone with a PhD would know better.

Personally I don't really actively follow any mappers, the front line is so incredibly fuzzy neither pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian sources are very reliable and it gets even more muddled when either takes a single dude holding a flag in a specific spot at face value.

OPSEC has also gotten a whole lot better for both.

 

[HavokFour]

The chances of Taiwan getting attacked within the next 3 years just shot up drastically if this happens.

Trump to hand Putin Ukraine’s occupied territories

US president sends envoys to Moscow with peace plan that recognises Russia’s war gains

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Czech_pivo]

The chances of Taiwan getting attacked within the next 3 years just shot up drastically if this happens.

Trump to hand Putin Ukraine’s occupied territories

US president sends envoys to Moscow with peace plan that recognises Russia’s war gains

www.telegraph.co.uk

Won’t happen before the US can produce enough ‘chips’ on soil.

 

[KevinB]

Won’t happen before the US can produce enough ‘chips’ on soil.

So Ukraine should start building chips you say…

 

[Czech_pivo]

So Ukraine should start building chips you say…

Do you disagree?

 

[KevinB]

Do you disagree?

I’m disgusted with so many COA’s at this point.

 

[HavokFour]

A third tanker is sinking off the West African coast. Pretty significant development if Ukraine is involved, which means they're no longer constrained to striking naval targets in the Black Sea.

https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3m6u4ytf76s2i

 

[brihard]

A third tanker is sinking off the West African coast. Pretty significant development if Ukraine is involved, which means they're no longer constrained to striking naval targets in the Black Sea.

https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3m6u4ytf76s2i

Whoah. Big if that was a Ukrainian hit. It shows some serious reach.

A concerted kinetic campaign against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet is long overdue. It’s merchant shipping supporting the war effort; it’s fair game. Hitting them outside of the immediate theater will send a bit of a shockwave. I’m not sure what insurance is like for these vessels, but if it’s a factor it’s a significant one. We saw what the Houthis have done to shipping routes with the threats of strikes, and they’re very geographically limited. If Ukraine hits a couple more shadow fleet ships in disparate parts of the world, that will have an outsized economic impact.

This could also be shaping OP’s to influence ongoing peace negotiations that are ridiculously favourable to the Russians. Be ready for some very angry Russian noises.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Whoah. Big if that was a Ukrainian hit. It shows some serious reach.

A concerted kinetic campaign against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet is long overdue. It’s merchant shipping supporting the war effort; it’s fair game. Hitting them outside of the immediate theater will send a bit of a shockwave. I’m not sure what insurance is like for these vessels, but if it’s a factor it’s a significant one. We saw what the Houthis have done to shipping routes with the threats of strikes, and they’re very geographically limited. If Ukraine hits a couple more shadow fleet ships in disparate parts of the world, that will have an outsized economic impact.

This could also be shaping OP’s to influence ongoing peace negotiations that are ridiculously favourable to the Russians. Be ready for some very angry Russian noises.

I’d love to see them hit and sink a number out east, off Vladivostok. Throw the entire shadow oil fleet to North Korea in a hissy fit.

 

[HavokFour]

To borrow a quote:

Fourth Russia-Linked Tanker Hit in a Week

A Russian-linked tanker was hit again in the Black Sea on Sunday, marking the fourth such incident in a week as maritime attacks spread from the region all the way to Africa.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

So Ukraine should start building chips you say…

Don't think even that'll make a difference - USSR 2.0 seems pretty clear on what appears to be their bottom line ....

Putin insists Ukraine has to surrender territory for any deal to be possible

Russian president says latest draft peace plan ‘can be basis for future agreements’ if Kyiv gives up unspecified areas

www.theguardian.com

Also archived here.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Don't think even that'll make a difference - USSR 2.0 seems pretty clear on what appears to be their bottom line ....

Putin insists Ukraine has to surrender territory for any deal to be possible

Russian president says latest draft peace plan ‘can be basis for future agreements’ if Kyiv gives up unspecified areas

www.theguardian.com

Also archived here.

Putin wants Ukraine
Trump wants Venezuela

Ukraine is friends with the west, though only 'so-so' with the US
Venezuela is friends with Russia/China/Iran/Cuba

Trump throws Putin a bone in terms of Ukraine
Putin throws Trump a bone in terms of Venezuela
Xi wonders who is going to throw him a bone and what bone could that be

Europe laments the 'loss' of Ukraine and continues to bicker amongst themselves.
Poland moves forward with rearming and moves to quietly build more than 1 nuclear device
South Korea moves forward with rearming and moves to quietly build ballistic nuclear abilities for their upcoming nuclear subs
The UK questions it role going forward as its outside of EU, uncareful by Trump, is broke and getting even broker and more divided
France continues to be France and quietly goes about its business in the Shalal and continues taking the month of August off
Germany does as little as possible and quietly welcomes being under the Polish nuclear umbrella
Canada talks and talks and talks about new oil/gas outlets to the coast to break the US slow squeeze of the headlock on Alberta thanks of VZ oil

This is the world in 2028.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Putin wants Ukraine
Trump wants Venezuela

Ukraine is friends with the west, though only 'so-so' with the US
Venezuela is friends with Russia/China/Iran/Cuba

Trump throws Putin a bone in terms of Ukraine
Putin throws Trump a bone in terms of Venezuela
Xi wonders who is going to throw him a bone and what bone could that be

Europe laments the 'loss' of Ukraine and continues to bicker amongst themselves.
Poland moves forward with rearming and moves to quietly build more than 1 nuclear device
South Korea moves forward with rearming and moves to quietly build ballistic nuclear abilities for their upcoming nuclear subs
The UK questions it role going forward as its outside of EU, uncareful by Trump, is broke and getting even broker and more divided
France continues to be France and quietly goes about its business in the Shalal and continues taking the month of August off
Germany does as little as possible and quietly welcomes being under the Polish nuclear umbrella
Canada talks and talks and talks about new oil/gas outlets to the coast to break the US slow squeeze of the headlock on Alberta thanks of VZ oil

This is the world in 2028.

US assassinates Franklin the Marxist Turtle precipitating a swarming attack on the Pentagon by Canadian public school teachers unions.