2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Altair]

Just checking, are you still talking about the U.S. military bombing of drug boats that aren’t heading to the U.S. in the first place and wouldn’t have remotely close to the range to do so if they wanted to?

Yes.

Also taking into consideration the 27 percent of boats the coast guard searches yield no drugs, which, if we apply those statistics to the strikes the USA is commiting is a hell of a lot of innocent collateral damage.

 

[HavokFour]

With what happened in January last year, can't blame the Jetblue pilot for being a little pissed off.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yes.

Also taking into consideration the 27 percent of boats the coast guard searches yield no drugs, which, if we apply those statistics to the strikes the USA is commiting is a hell of a lot of innocent collateral damage.

You'd first have to assume the targeting process and the CG search process followed exactly the same rules, which is not a reasonable or likely assumption.

 

[brihard]

The Venezuelan Navy has escorted a number of merchant ships away from Venezuela in response to Trump’s declaration of a blockade. Thus far it doesn’t sound like escorted vessels are among those named in sanctions but that seems like an obvious next step.

We may have a very dangerous game of chicken developing.

NYT without paywall: https://archive.is/AsFdt

 

[Kirkhill]

Lunacy or not, Norway is taking steps to hinder hybrid efforts

Norway plans to introduce military police on remote Arctic island

The proposed legal change comes amid the possibility of a future increase in Norwegian and allied presence in the area.

www.defensenews.com

 

[MilEME09]

The Venezuelan Navy has escorted a number of merchant ships away from Venezuela in response to Trump’s declaration of a blockade. Thus far it doesn’t sound like escorted vessels are among those named in sanctions but that seems like an obvious next step.

We may have a very dangerous game of chicken developing.

NYT without paywall: https://archive.is/AsFdt

Cuban missile crisis vibes

 

[Brad Sallows]

Rule violation post deleted.

The claim that Venezuela expropriated US (oil) assets is mundane and documented, not lunatic.

Theoretically, compensation paid by Venezuela should make the problem go away.

 

[Kirkhill]

The claim that Venezuela expropriated US (oil) assets is mundane and documented, not lunatic.

Theoretically, compensation paid by Venezuela should make the problem go away.

Venezuela owns the oil.
Ownership of the rigs, pumps, pipes, other hardware and intellectual property is another matter.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Venezuela owns the oil.
Ownership of the rigs, pumps, pipes, other hardware and intellectual property is another matter.

Yes. What do you think "US assets" means? "(oil)" describes the character of the assets.

 

[Kirkhill]

Yes. What do you think "US assets" means? "(oil)" describes the character of the assets.

We have an analogous situation up here in Alberta. Much of the infrastructure was built with much prized foreign investment. Mainly from the US.
TMX was going to be financed that way.
Northern Gateway/Eagle Spirit, Energy East and XL could all be expected to be financed that way.
Thank you America.

 

[Brad Sallows]

We have an analogous situation up here in Alberta. Much of the infrastructure was built with much prized foreign investment. Mainly from the US.
TMX was going to be financed that way.
Northern Gateway/Eagle Spirit, Energy East and XL could all be expected to be financed that way.
Thank you America.

Foreign direct investment is a customary balance-of-trade balancing factor.

 

[Lumber]

Exclusive: US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say

The United States is interdicting and seizing a vessel off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday, a move that comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a "blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

www.reuters.com

It's like they are goading them.

 

[brihard]

Exclusive: US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say

The United States is interdicting and seizing a vessel off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Saturday, a move that comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a "blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

www.reuters.com

It's like they are goading them.

Of course they are.

I’ve seen mixed reports as to whether this particular vessel is sanctioned or not. I would assume that it likely is but I’ll wait and see. I’m leaning strongly towards the U.S. is trying to provoke a forceful response that they can then use as a pretext for military strikes and regime change. I expect we will continue to see the U.S. push farther and farther through the range of potential escalatory acts.

 

[Lumber]

Of course they are.

I’ve seen mixed reports as to whether this particular vessel is sanctioned or not. I would assume that it likely is but I’ll wait and see. I’m leaning strongly towards the U.S. is trying to provoke a forceful response that they can then use as a pretext for military strikes and regime change. I expect we will continue to see the U.S. push farther and farther through the range of potential escalatory acts.

I don't think the Venezuelan military is stupid, or at least they're front line personnel aren't. If Venezuelan leadership ordered their navy or (extremely limited) Air Force to interdict, I'm willing to believe they would ignore the order or else fly somewhere neutral and seek asylum. I could be wrong though.

Then, when the US doesn't get the reaction the want, they manufacture/make-up one.

 

[YZT580]

Of course they are.

I’ve seen mixed reports as to whether this particular vessel is sanctioned or not. I would assume that it likely is but I’ll wait and see. I’m leaning strongly towards the U.S. is trying to provoke a forceful response that they can then use as a pretext for military strikes and regime change. I expect we will continue to see the U.S. push farther and farther through the range of potential escalatory acts.

straight out of Putin's playbook.

 

[brihard]

I’m seeing claims now that the newly seized ship is owned and managed by a Chinese business. If that checks out, China’s reaction will be interesting.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I’m seeing claims now that the newly seized ship is owned and managed by a Chinese business. If that checks out, China’s reaction will be interesting.

Not surprising. The global shipping industry is controlled by a surprisingly small # of players. Between Hong Kong & China, about 1/5 merchant ships on the high seas is owned by the Chinese.

 

[brihard]

So, valid Panamanian flag on the ship. No sanctions naming the ship - either international, or unilateral American. It’s likely carrying Venezuelan oil, which the U.S. has unilaterally declared sanctioned. I’m struggling to understand what legal authority the U.S. has to board and seize that vessel in international waters. Any of our maritime types able to weigh in?

 

[McG]

Same authority they use for blowing up suspected smuggling boats?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not surprising. The global shipping industry is controlled by a surprisingly small # of players. Between Hong Kong & China, about 1/5 merchant ships on the high seas is owned by the Chinese.

Shall be known as...