Iran Super Thread- Merged

[RangerRay]

I’m not sure what we in the West can do to help the counter-revolutionaries. Trump killed all the organizations that used to help dissidents topple their dictatorships. Several civil society groups, many of which were a part of the Republican Party infrastructure, and radios stations like VOA and RFE, played a huge roll in helping local civil society give the final push to topple their dictators (think “color revolutions”) and the downfall of communism in Eastern Europe before then. But alas, most of those organizations are now dead or on life support thanks to the Trump Administration.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The story of post WWII Iran is a lot more complicated than the Shah of Iran Iron Hand dictatorship and the Ayattolah's one thereafter.

It had started on the way to full independence from foreign imperialism, and, under Mohamed Rheza was on its way to possibly be the first successful Constitutional Monarchy and modern state in the Middle-East. But the Americans (with good support from the Brits, I regret to say, and especially one called Churchill) couldn't keep their friking fingers out - because oil - and US company not being the ones making the insane profits anymore - but the money going rather to the people of Iran.

If the US hadn't interfered (by fomenting a military coup d'etat and turning the Shah into an absolute power - dictator - under their control) when Prime Minister Mosadegh nationalized British oil and if the Shah had then supported his PM, who had the backing of the assembly, you might have had a fully modern and non-religious, democratic society in Iran today (remember, they are Aryans, not Arabs) on par with Israel or better.

So if the Shah's son return, as Shah of Iran, I hope that if Crown Prince Reza returns and is anointed by the people, he will see fit to go back to the way things were under his father before he was turned into a dictator, and will recreate a constitutional order such that he would rule as a constitutional monarch.

If that happens, watch the Iranian people's pent up energy in all fields of human endeavour explode like there is no tomorrow.

 

[OldSolduer]

I like your summary. Thank you! I’ve heard the same on history podcasts.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The story of post WWII Iran is a lot more complicated than the Shah of Iran Iron Hand dictatorship and the Ayattolah's one thereafter.

It had started on the way to full independence from foreign imperialism, and, under Mohamed Rheza was on its way to possibly be the first successful Constitutional Monarchy and modern state in the Middle-East. But the Americans (with good support from the Brits, I regret to say, and especially one called Churchill) couldn't keep their friking fingers out - because oil - and US company not being the ones making the insane profits anymore - but the money going rather to the people of Iran.

If the US hadn't interfered (by fomenting a military coup d'etat and turning the Shah into an absolute power - dictator - under their control) when Prime Minister Mosadegh nationalized British oil and if the Shah had then supported his PM, who had the backing of the assembly, you might have had a fully modern and non-religious, democratic society in Iran today (remember, they are Aryans, not Arabs) on par with Israel or better.

So if the Shah's son return, as Shah of Iran, I hope that if Crown Prince Reza returns and is anointed by the people, he will see fit to go back to the way things were under his father before he was turned into a dictator, and will recreate a constitutional order such that he would rule as a constitutional monarch.

If that happens, watch the Iranian people's pent up energy in all fields of human endeavour explode like there is no tomorrow.

The big challenge is during the transition period, there is a real chance that the Baloch people might try to separate and form their own State. Apparently they would reduce Iran's oil fields significantly and their abilty to recover.

 

[OldSolduer]

The big challenge is during the transition period, there is a real chance that the Baloch people might try to separate and form their own State. Apparently they would reduce Iran's oil fields significantly and their abilty to recover.

Whoever takes over - if it ever happens - better be a person who can compromise and sell it to his - or her - nation.

 

[brihard]

The big challenge is during the transition period, there is a real chance that the Baloch people might try to separate and form their own State. Apparently they would reduce Iran's oil fields significantly and their abilty to recover.

It’s really hard for me to figure out what’s signal and what’s noise in Iran right now, but it seems like the regime is struggling more in some of the Kurdish towns in the west.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It’s really hard for me to figure out what’s signal and what’s noise in Iran right now, but it seems like the regime is struggling more in some of the Kurdish towns in the west.

Here is a map with some timelines of were protests started

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If true, then the end is closer than we thought

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Iranian IRGC and government officials attempting to get asylum for their families in France. Go to 32:20 of the video for the bit on that

 

[Brad Sallows]

Iranian IRGC and government officials attempting to get asylum for their families in France. Go to 32:20 of the video for the bit on that

It's a shame that they can flee to asylum anywhere, but I'd rather see some kind of "golden bridge" so that they have some choices other than to go down fighting. People tempted to make disparaging remarks about France should be reminded that someone has to do it.

 

[KevinB]

Iran has now apparently shut down the internet.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It's a shame that they can flee to asylum anywhere, but I'd rather see some kind of "golden bridge" so that they have some choices other than to go down fighting. People tempted to make disparaging remarks about France should be reminded that someone has to do it.

Let them flee to Afghanistan.....

 

[brihard]

It's a shame that they can flee to asylum anywhere, but I'd rather see some kind of "golden bridge" so that they have some choices other than to go down fighting. People tempted to make disparaging remarks about France should be reminded that someone has to do it.

If the top leadership can be isolated through the safe defection or departure of functional executives, that would hasten the fall of the regime I suspect. As you say, an option that’s not ‘fight it out’.

Such departures would also have the potential to seriously sap the will of the levels below to resist.

Almost all people in all circumstances still want to make it home safe to family, have a roof and a meal, and feel reasonably assured that this will remain the case.

 

[OldSolduer]

If the top leadership can be isolated through the safe defection or departure of functional executives, that would hasten the fall of the regime I suspect. As you say, an option that’s not ‘fight it out’.

The senior and mid level bureaucrats really run the country day to day so yes if they go.....possibly BOOM!!!

 

[Maxman1]

one of the most oppressive dictators in history