2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Czech_pivo]

Venezuela-Austria

Greenland-Munich (The EU will cave and say this is the last one, the only other alternative is to put troops in Greenland and dare the USA to fire)

Canada-Poland

Please remember that an unknown (to us, the public) number of CDN troops are stationed at Thule now. It would be interesting to note how they would be treated if the US put boots on the ground. Would their communication devices be blocked/confiscated, would they be confined to their quarters until things settled down, would they be able to continue to perform the duties assigned to them. Would Canada leave them stationed there on a go-forward basis.

Many unknowns here. It could be the case that if things look imminently bad that we try to extract them somehow before the US executes their plan so as to be able to say that we had no troops on Greenland at that time.

 

[Rifleman62]

Some more info here. I also wonder what this ship has as cargo as it has no oil on board.
Speculation that the USS Lewis B. Puller (ESB-3), a purpose-built expeditionary mobile base vessel was used to fly off the helicopters. Additionally the availability of Merchant Mariners to crew the seized ships.

US Seizes 'Russian' Russian Tanker Marinera (ex-Bella 1) | How Was it Seized? | Other Tanker Seized

 

[ModlrMike]

There's the obvious other option... it was empty and just making a run for it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There's the obvious other option... it was empty and just making a run for it.

Now that would be funny.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Now that would be funny.

If it was innocent not doing anything they would have shot it for sure.

 

[brihard]

Of interest to law nerds: a fairly dense article on the legal challenges Maduro’s legal team may raise in his defense, with lots of reference to prior cases. It’s an interesting read and appears well researched to my amateur eye.

Inside the Legal Battles Ahead for Nicolás Maduro

From extraterritorial arrest to head-of-state immunity, his case will test longstanding doctrines.

www.lawfaremedia.org

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting that Russia basically sat back and watched, while the Cubans died. Likely revolutionary fanatics. Getting posted to Venezuela rather than Ukraine would be a good thing for the low rank solider.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Perhaps Putin saw staying on Trump's good side was the better option. Was Russian involvement in Venezuela that big or important that Putin would risk heavy involvement?

 

[armrdsoul77]

They should have renamed the tanker Epstein 1 and it would have been clear sailing.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I did not know about this Iran connection. Fascinating…

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[Czech_pivo]

Mexico. next up on the menu?

Trump suggests U.S. military will hit cartels on ‘land’ in Mexico​

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-us-military-cartels-mexico-land.html

 

[Kirkhill]

Mexico. next up on the menu?

Trump suggests U.S. military will hit cartels on ‘land’ in Mexico​

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-us-military-cartels-mexico-land.html

I have been arguing for a while now that if we don't mow our lawn and keep our weeds in check then the risk is that our neighbour will do it for us.

Trump has demonstrated that he can mow anybody's lawn anytime and he is willing to do it. And likely claim customary use as a result.

A bit of a giddyup to 5%?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Mexico. next up on the menu?

Trump suggests U.S. military will hit cartels on ‘land’ in Mexico​

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-us-military-cartels-mexico-land.html

I have seen some posts online, similar to Maduro prior to his capture, with cartels or their supporters almost wishing the US Military would engage with them. I don't think either side truly comprehends the level violence each other are capable of. I would expect the US Military be victorious but I think the violence that will erupt on US soil will be savage and brutal.

I don't know if you watch the series Lioness, but I highly recommend it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I have seen some posts online, similar to Maduro prior to his capture, with cartels or their supporters almost wishing the US Military would engage with them. I don't think either side truly comprehends the level violence each other are capable of. I would expect the US Military be victorious but I think the violence that will erupt on US soil will be savage and brutal.

I don't know if you watch the series Lioness, but I highly recommend it.

Yes I've watched it.

The one that I enjoyed the most was 'Le Bureau' a French series. A nice reminder of how effective and nasty the French can be when it suits them. Its on Prime I believe.

 

[Kirkhill]

I have seen some posts online, similar to Maduro prior to his capture, with cartels or their supporters almost wishing the US Military would engage with them. I don't think either side truly comprehends the level violence each other are capable of. I would expect the US Military be victorious but I think the violence that will erupt on US soil will be savage and brutal.

I don't know if you watch the series Lioness, but I highly recommend it.

Interesting point though -

US mythology is replete with domestic violence

Al Capone's Chicago
Jesse James's wild west
Indian wars
Civil War
1812
Revolution
French and Indian Wars

There is a certain atavistic streak in the US character that not only wouldn't consider the risk of domestic violence unacceptable but might even appeal to some.

Militias, preppers, stand your ground, castle doctrine, open carry, 2nd Amendment.....

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting point though -

US mythology is replete with domestic violence

Al Capone's Chicago
Jesse James's wild west
Indian wars
Civil War
1812
Revolution
French and Indian Wars

There is a certain atavistic streak in the US character that not only wouldn't consider the risk of domestic violence unacceptable but might even appeal to some.

Militias, preppers, stand your ground, castle doctrine, open carry, 2nd Amendment.....

This is what AI told me:

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting point though -

US mythology is replete with domestic violence

Al Capone's Chicago
Jesse James's wild west
Indian wars
Civil War
1812
Revolution
French and Indian Wars

There is a certain atavistic streak in the US character that not only wouldn't consider the risk of domestic violence unacceptable but might even appeal to some.

Militias, preppers, stand your ground, castle doctrine, open carry, 2nd Amendment.....

You missed such things as:

Detroit Riots of 1967 and 1968
The Watts Riots of 1965, 1968 and 1992 (a la Rodney King)

The list is absolutely massively long. The sheer number of 'race riots' in the US is staggering. Many of these involved thousands of individuals at at a time, not just a few dozen agitated individuals, thousands and thousands of people.

List of incidents of civil unrest in the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Kirkhill]

This is what AI told me:

View attachment 97674

Second interesting thought.
The drug cartels are largely in the cities.
The cities are largely controlled by Democrats.
The cities are largely unarmed.

Cities are already dealing with urban flight.
Would the prospect of those cities becoming more unliveable, encouraging a resort to the National Guard, be a deterrent to this administration?

 

[Kirkhill]

You missed such things as:

Detroit Riots of 1967 and 1968
The Watts Riots of 1965, 1968 and 1992 (a la Rodney King)

The list is absolutely massively long. The sheer number of 'race riots' in the US is staggering. Many of these involved thousands of individuals at at a time, not just a few dozen agitated individuals, thousands and thousands of people.

List of incidents of civil unrest in the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Add in labour and union associated violence...

 

[Halifax Tar]

Second interesting thought.
The drug cartels are largely in the cities.
The cities are largely controlled by Democrats.
The cities are largely unarmed.

Cities are already dealing with urban flight.
Would the prospect of those cities becoming more unliveable, encouraging a resort to the National Guard, be a deterrent to this administration?

Solid questions....