Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Maxman1]

If the Ayatollah is ever caught by the people he will not undergo a fair trial. IF the people overthrow these assholes the retribution will be swift and severe.

He'll get the Mussolini treatment rather than the Ceaușescu treatment.

 

[Cloud Cover]

He'll get the Mussolini treatment rather than the Ceaușescu treatment.

Have we issued him a PassPort yet?

 

[brihard]

Thinking further, and not sure if I’ve said this here yet- the U.S. won’t take actions to trigger regime change til they’re ready to. I strongly believe that would include them putting forces on the grounds to the extent necessary to secure any nuclear materials and exploit/destroy the technical sites. That will probably be a pretty significant endeavour. I don’t have a good finger on the pulse of what’s in theatre but there will probably be some obvious telegraphing. Getting that force in to various locations is one thing, and then sustaining it is another. And then there’s pulling out everything that needs to come out at the end. I won’t be surprised if we see lots of talk but not much action for a little while yet- or alternatively, action calibrated to send a message but not yet collapse the regime. A threshold nuclear state descended into anarchy is bad news bears.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Out of 40,000 US troops in theatre, all of whom are busy, I wonder if the US could even mount ops larger than BN sized actions without significant reinforcement.

And I’m trying to figure out whose side the UAE is on this week. >> They are currently exercising their fleet in South Africa with (checks notes) China, Russia, Iran and South Africa.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Thinking further, and not sure if I’ve said this here yet- the U.S. won’t take actions to trigger regime change til they’re ready to. I strongly believe that would include them putting forces on the grounds to the extent necessary to secure any nuclear materials and exploit/destroy the technical sites. That will probably be a pretty significant endeavour. I don’t have a good finger on the pulse of what’s in theatre but there will probably be some obvious telegraphing. Getting that force in to various locations is one thing, and then sustaining it is another. And then there’s pulling out everything that needs to come out at the end. I won’t be surprised if we see lots of talk but not much action for a little while yet- or alternatively, action calibrated to send a message but not yet collapse the regime. A threshold nuclear state descended into anarchy is bad news bears.

I don't see full out anarchy. The majority of the population is utterly sick of the regime. Once the IRGC starts to lose power the army is very likely to come out on side of the people. You have a educated population that loves doing business and for that you need stability. You will likley end up with a small Islamic insurgency, that will get no mercy.

A quick review of the Crown Prince, shows that he and his followers have been preparing for this for a long time and it seems they are ready to create a transitionary government. If the top Clerics and leadership flee, I suspect that the Crown Prince is very ready to step into the leadership vacuum and wants to have a referendum to on what the future looks like.

 

[MilEME09]

Has this been verified? If so it’s pretty close to a last step in terms of escalating threats; not much more to go to from there. After that it’s all kinetic.

Seems so

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010501062806102164

 

[HavokFour]

A truck has plowed into an anti-regime protest in LA, a third "faction"? Horrific way to go about representing your views.

The video shows the side of the U-Haul says, "NO SHAH. NO REGIME. USA: DON'T REPEAT 1953. NO MULLAH." It appeared the protesters ripped several signs off of the U-Haul.

U-Haul drives into crowd during anti-Iranian regime rally in Westwood, LAPD says

Chaos erupted after a driver allegedly plowed a U-Haul into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest near the federal building in Westwood on Sunday afternoon.

abc7.com

 

[brihard]

A truck has plowed into an anti-regime protest in LA, a third "faction"? Horrific way to go about representing your views.

U-Haul drives into crowd during anti-Iranian regime rally in Westwood, LAPD says

Chaos erupted after a driver allegedly plowed a U-Haul into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest near the federal building in Westwood on Sunday afternoon.

abc7.com

From my initial quick look at the videos it doesn’t look like it was intended as an attack- it didn’t charge into the crowd such as to generate casualties, I don’t think. I suspect the driver didn’t realize he was gonna get himself stuck in the crowd.

Tough situation for LAPD. They needed to get him out of the vehicle and unable to drive it, and safely into custody, but also protect him from getting lynched by the crowd.

 

[YZT580]

Seems so

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010501062806102164

Barak Obama, and Biden drew lots of lines in the sand. Trump with respect Russia has drawn lines in the sand. All those lines have been obliterated, not just crossed. Now we have Trump drawing one for Iran. They have just crossed it. Its do or die for Trump.

 

[Kilted]

Well, hopefully this distracts Trump from Greenland.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Deleted.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A truck has plowed into an anti-regime protest in LA, a third "faction"? Horrific way to go about representing your views.

U-Haul drives into crowd during anti-Iranian regime rally in Westwood, LAPD says

Chaos erupted after a driver allegedly plowed a U-Haul into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest near the federal building in Westwood on Sunday afternoon.

abc7.com

MEK, used to be supported by Saddam to harass Iran, using captured Chieftain tanks among other stuff.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Those who are FA are about to FO...


Trump says US considering ‘very strong options’ for Iran

US president says Washington is closely monitoring protests in Iran and considering possible military intervention.

Trump says US considering ‘very strong options’ for Iran

US president says Washington is closely monitoring protests in Iran and considering possible military intervention.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I will not be surprised if the US Hits Iranian targets tonite.

 

[MilEME09]

I will not be surprised if the US Hits Iranian targets tonite.

Centcom apparently said they needed tine to move assets. No CSG currently in the AO, assets moving to Saudi as well.

 

[quadrapiper]

Hope, if they do hit anything, our delightful southern neighbours manage to be accurate and to confine themselves to targets the bulk of Iranians will be happy to see gone.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Nika Shakarami

I dont think Ive ever heard about her before. What a terrible and tragic event. I hope she is at peace.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I will not be surprised if the US Hits Iranian targets tonite.

The Danes will be happy for the distraction.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Thinking further, and not sure if I’ve said this here yet- the U.S. won’t take actions to trigger regime change til they’re ready to. I strongly believe that would include them putting forces on the grounds to the extent necessary to secure any nuclear materials and exploit/destroy the technical sites. That will probably be a pretty significant endeavour. I don’t have a good finger on the pulse of what’s in theatre but there will probably be some obvious telegraphing. Getting that force in to various locations is one thing, and then sustaining it is another. And then there’s pulling out everything that needs to come out at the end. I won’t be surprised if we see lots of talk but not much action for a little while yet- or alternatively, action calibrated to send a message but not yet collapse the regime. A threshold nuclear state descended into anarchy is bad news bears.

The Gulf States must be shitting themselves with worry about huge numbers of Iranian refugees crossing the strait waters if the regime does fall.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Gulf States must be shitting themselves with worry about huge numbers of Iranian refugees crossing the strait waters if the regime does fall.

I think at best it will be high thousands and they mostly go to Iraq and Afghanistan although not their final destination. High value wankers will go to Moscow and Qatar.