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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Good2Golf said:
And interestingly, it appears that the regime has been (allegedly) transferring its gold reserves to a safe(r) place for the last month.

united24media.com

Iran’s Gold Allegedly Flown to Russia as Supreme Leader Braces for Collapse

The surge of Il-76 flights from Russia to Tehran suggests a military logistics operation, coinciding with protests and political tensions in Iran.
united24media.com united24media.com
Click to expand...
So it was a huge robbery disguised as government.

Karma. One can only hope Karma bites these people in the ass and really hard.
 
Cloud Cover said:
Not sure of the accuracy here. Moving a CSG from South China Sea opens doors to all kinds of unintended but perfectly obvious happenings.

Click to expand...

Some things have changed. There are non-carrier options.

The USMC and the US Army are both deploying HIMARs which now has a 500 km strike range with the PrSMs, that is equivalent to the combat radius of an un-refuelled carrier fighter. They are both also deploying SM6s and Tomahawks with 1500 km ranges from the Typhon Mk70 PDS system.

Coming soon, but not ready for prime time, the USMC's truck mounted JSMs (NMESIS-Rogue) and the US Army's Hypersonic Dark Eagle system. Both are in early deployment stages.

HIMARs in particular is popular with Taiwan, the Phillipines and Australia buying them. Australia has committed to 90 of them and has its own missile factory. Then there are the local competitors, like the S. Korean Chunmoo and its missiles, the Japanese and Taiwanese home grown complexes and the Indian Brahmos.

I think this may give the carriers some cover for manoeuvre.
 
From the folks who bring you the decently robust OS summary of UKR, the Institute for the Study of War's latest summary on IRN and the 'hood ...
understandingwar.org

Iran Update, January 14, 2026

The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately.
understandingwar.org understandingwar.org
A few of the headlines:
  • "... The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately ..."
  • "... The extent and extremity of the regime’s use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution ..."
  • "... CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 14, but the regime is sustaining repressive measures that impose a significant cost on the regime ..."
  • "... The regime has also suggested that it will sustain its nationwide internet shutdown for at least another week. Internet shutdowns have a detrimental effect on the Iranian economy, and a sustained shutdown will likely exacerbate the poor economic conditions that triggered this protest movement ..."
  • "... Some Iranians are resisting the regime’s efforts to contain protests, which further indicates that the regime has not regained control over the security situation ..."
  • "... The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting security forces from successfully challenging the regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown ..."
  • "... Iranian regime officials have leaked various protester death counts to Western media. The leak of high protester death counts by some regime officials indicates that these officials may be disaffected by the regime’s brutal crackdown on the protests ..."
  • "... The Iranian regime’s concern about cross-border Kurdish militant activity will likely cause the regime to divert resources to address this threat, which would stretch the bandwidth of Iranian security forces that are suppressing protests ..."

Also from the same ISW team, a bingo card of "how's the regime holding up?" as of yesterday morning:
understandingwar.org

Indicators of Iranian Regime Instability

Indicators of Iranian Regime Instability: The ongoing protests in Iran mark the most serious domestic unrest.
understandingwar.org understandingwar.org
 
The Iranian Rial is somewhat recovering as regime collapse seems slightly less likely.

It seems there's been interest online in buying it when it was basically worthless yesterday, however being a closed currency there's no real way to do that sort of flying into the country and buying some (Not possible, especially yesterday).

So we continue to wait to see if the Trump administration decides to open pandora's box with an attack on Iran, or if they continue to back off. This kind of mission still to me just doesn't seem like the type of thing they would want to get involved with, and not really in line with their policies and operations so far... But we'll see.
 
daftandbarmy said:
As I recall, they killed a whole plane load of Canadians a few years ago with little to no consequence...
Click to expand...
If you mean this one, it appears the "usual suspects" were rounded up :)
www.hrw.org

Iran Court Issues Sentences in Downing of Ukraine Flight PS752

On April 16, after a trial lacking any transparency, the Tehran Military Court issued prison sentences for 10 members of the Iranian armed forces who were charged with the 2020 downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, killing all 176 passengers and crew.
www.hrw.org www.hrw.org
IIRC, that also cranked some folks into the streets calling for new leadership - wonder if it'll work this time?
 
From the latest ISW summary from last night ....
understandingwar.org

Iran Update, January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdowns appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now.
understandingwar.org understandingwar.org
The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement ... The regime’s pervasive securitization measures and violent crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed protest activity for now ... The regime’s mobilization of security forces to securitize society is unsustainable, which makes it possible that protests could resume when the regime is no longer able to sustain this mobilization ... The regime is also unlikely to address the underlying factors that triggered this protest movement, which makes it possible that protests could resume ... Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran’s banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime ... The Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime’s violent crackdown on protests ...
Click to expand...
... with this interesting tidbit from Wednesday's update about those pesky Kurds in the 'hood ;)
... The Iranian regime’s concern about cross-border Kurdish militant activity will likely cause the regime to divert resources to address this threat, which would stretch the bandwidth of Iranian security forces that are suppressing protests. The regime is currently attempting to simultaneously defend against Kurdish militant activity and suppress protests in Iran’s border provinces, particularly in Ilam, Kermanshah, and West Azerbaijan provinces.[27] Turkey’s intelligence service warned the IRGC that armed Kurdish separatist groups were attempting to cross from Iraq into Iran “in recent days,” according to three unspecified sources familiar with the matter speaking to Reuters on January 14.[28] The Reuters report follows several attacks by Kurdish anti-regime groups against Iranian military sites in recent days. The Kurdistan National Guard announced on January 9 that it attacked an IRGC base in Nourabad, Lorestan Province, and injured three IRGC members.[29] The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) separately claimed responsibility for an attack on IRGC positions in Kermanshah Province on January 12 that killed an unspecified number of IRGC personnel.[30] The uptick in Kurdish militant activity in western and northwestern Iran in recent days will likely force the regime to divert personnel and resources to confront this issue that it would have otherwise used to quell protests ...
Click to expand...
 
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