Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Cloud Cover]

Hmmmm… who has a military large enough to hold a country together as its people purge and punish a defeated regime while building a whole new democratic government. India?


Also there is no UN authorization for all of this - not that it matters because that aspect is now essentially dead- but there needs to be something.
Certainly have low expectations this is being discussed intelligently by the Trump circle.

 

[brihard]

Hmmmm… who has a military large enough to hold a country together as its people purge and punish a defeated regime while building a whole new democratic government. India?


Also there is no UN authorization for all of this - not that it matters because that aspect is now essentially dead- but there needs to be something.
Certainly have low expectations this is being discussed intelligently by the Trump circle.

I think the purported requirement for UN authorization is a polite fiction that we can safely pronounce dead at this point. It remained a factor when the lead countries on military aggression still cared about the fig leaf. That no longer appears to be the case.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Blowing them back into the Stone Age from the air and then flying away just creates more problems long term. Somebody needs to step up and take on running the country, and somebody else needs to guarantee his/her security. Hint - it can’t be the UN…

Large scale troops in the country will be a bad idea. Small SOF teams dealing with high value targets is doable. The Iranian military is not really the target, but the IRGC certainly is. There is a government in waiting and it's very likely the Army will swear allegiance to a new government. The population is fairly educated and can recover quickly. There is already a form of voting in the country. It's just that you are currently only allowed to vote for "approved candidates". The Shah has said the plan is to run a referendum on what form of government the people want. Likely a Constitutional Monarchy, but if they choose a republic, then he will respect that as well. He has a leadership team in waiting and clearly a lot of support in and outside the country. So the framework for voting is there and so is a ready made and acceptable transitionary governance body.

My guess is there will need to be a "Truth and reconciliation process" and a way to vet and rehabilitate junior members of the IRGC and other supporters of the Islamic regime. If the regime collapses, I see the Army coming out publicly to support the Shah's return, most of the clerics and heads of the IRGC flee. The rest are rounded up and imprisoned. Bureaucrats are ordered back to work and the new government arrives.

There will be some chaos as many of the major businesses are owned and controlled by the IRGC. I suspect most of those will be taken over by the State for a period and then sold off. Water and reliable power will be major issues as well. But the Persians are an energetic lot and free of the Islamic regime and with sanctions lifting, the country will be getting back on it's feet quickly.
There will be a low level insurgency from Islamic regime supporters and also from Baloch independence types, the former will need to be crushed and the latter can be muted with some promise of more self determination within the Iranian governance framework. The same can work for the Kurds in the North. My guess is the MEK will still be outlawed, but with a pathway for junior members to forsake that organization.

I will add is there is a lot of available capital in the diaspora to aid in the rebuilding of the country and the diaspora will enable a quick resumption of trade and economic activity.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I think the purported requirement for UN authorization is a polite fiction that we can safely pronounce dead at this point. It remained a factor when the lead countries on military aggression still cared about the fig leaf. That no longer appears to be the case.

100%. And it’s not coming back in our lifetime.

 

[brihard]

Large scale troops in the country will be a bad idea. Small SOF teams dealing with high value targets is doable. The Iranian military is not really the target, but the IRGC certainly is. There is a government in waiting and it's very likely the Army will swear allegiance to a new government. The population is fairly educated and can recover quickly. There is already a form of voting in the country. It's just that you are currently only allowed to vote for "approved candidates". The Shah has said the plan is to run a referendum on what form of government the people want. Likely a Constitutional Monarchy, but if they choose a republic, then he will respect that as well. He has a leadership team in waiting and clearly a lot of support in and outside the country. So the framework for voting is there and so is a ready made and acceptable transitionary governance body.

My guess is there will need to be a "Truth and reconciliation process" and a way to vet and rehabilitate junior members of the IRGC and other supporters of the Islamic regime. If the regime collapses, I see the Army coming out publicly to support the Shah's return, most of the clerics and heads of the IRGC flee. The rest are rounded up and imprisoned. Bureaucrats are ordered back to work and the new government arrives.

There will be some chaos as many of the major businesses are owned and controlled by the IRGC. I suspect most of those will be taken over by the State for a period and then sold off. Water and reliable power will be major issues as well. But the Persians are an energetic lot and free of the Islamic regime and with sanctions lifting, the country will be getting back on it's feet quickly.
There will be a low level insurgency from Islamic regime supporters and also from Baloch independence types, the former will need to be crushed and the latter can be muted with some promise of more self determination within the Iranian governance framework. The same can work for the Kurds in the North. My guess is the MEK will still be outlawed, but with a pathway for junior members to forsake that organization.

Not sure at what level the army leadership in Iran is irredeemably ‘political’, but anyone below that will likely side with the population writ large… If for no better reason than self preservation.

I think we’ll see decapitation of the regime, the IRGC, and affiliated institutions. An aggressive neutralization of defensive capabilities and missile launch capabilities, and then a work-down-from-the-top targeting of C2 that’s leading the suppression of the population. With top leadership taken out the population will rise fast. It’ll be messy and a lot of lower and mid level IRGC/Basij will get dead in pretty ugly ways… Those at lower to middle levels who can’t flee will try to turn.

What gets put in the regime’s place? That I don’t know. The U.S. will pick its horse and will try to back them by tying sanctions relief to their consolidation of power.

 

[OldSolduer]

I think the purported requirement for UN authorization is a polite fiction that we can safely pronounce dead at this point. It remained a factor when the lead countries on military aggression still cared about the fig leaf. That no longer appears to be the case.

The UN is a corrupt self licking ice cream cone. It needs some rehabilitation

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Not sure at what level the army leadership in Iran is irredeemably ‘political’, but anyone below that will likely side with the population writ large… If for no better reason than self preservation.

I think we’ll see decapitation of the regime, the IRGC, and affiliated institutions. An aggressive neutralization of defensive capabilities and missile launch capabilities, and then a work-down-from-the-top targeting of C2 that’s leading the suppression of the population. With top leadership taken out the population will rise fast. It’ll be messy and a lot of lower and mid level IRGC/Basij will get dead in pretty ugly ways… Those at lower to middle levels who can’t flee will try to turn.

What gets put in the regime’s place? That I don’t know. The U.S. will pick its horse and will try to back them by tying sanctions relief to their consolidation of power.

It's pretty clear that a majority in Iran wants to give the Son of the Shah a chance, people are risking their lives to chant his name and return every night. He represents hope and stability. There is an effort to downplay his popularity with the masses here in the west as he is a real threat to the Regime and it's supporters. A lot of countries in the region fear a stable and rising Iran, because it would become a serious economic power and would also put more oil into the market, keeping the price below what the Gulf States need to survive. Also it means the end of support to Russia, the Houthi, Hezbollah, Hamas along with other proxies. The Leftists in the West don't want that to happen. Here is the Shahs website Reza Pahlavi - Advocate for a Secular Democratic Iran

 

[GR66]

I think the purported requirement for UN authorization is a polite fiction that we can safely pronounce dead at this point. It remained a factor when the lead countries on military aggression still cared about the fig leaf. That no longer appears to be the case.

As long as the "Board of Peace" in onboard everything should be fine.

 

[brihard]

Thought: the U.S. has a lot of really pricey aircraft staged on the ramps at various known airports… Rota, Sofia, various bases in the Middle East… How much is anyone willing to bet that these bases aren’t adequately protected against mass drone attacks like what Ukraine did to the Russian strategic bomber fleet? If Iran assesses they’re screwed anyway, I bet they could damage a LOT of high end airframes with locally launched SUAS saturation attacks.

 

[Furniture]

Thought: the U.S. has a lot of really pricey aircraft staged on the ramps at various known airports… Rota, Sofia, various bases in the Middle East… How much is anyone willing to bet that these bases aren’t adequately protected against mass drone attacks like what Ukraine did to the Russian strategic bomber fleet? If Iran assesses they’re screwed anyway, I bet they could damage a LOT of high end airframes with locally launched SUAS saturation attacks.

That would require a lot of moving pieces in places not friendly to Iran. Ukraine managed it because they broadly look and sound like Russians, and were operating next door. I doubt Iran has enough people and drones in place in places like Rota or Sofia to manage much on that scale. Maybe in ME, but even then I have doubts.