Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Halifax Tar]

Not sure if this was shared here or the closed Ukraine War thread.

But by the Jesus this is a moving 1 hour and 47 mins. Highly recommended.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I saw it last night. Frontline living by its name, and I thought it was very well done (while saving the fainter hearted the less savoury bits we all know are there).

 

[Halifax Tar]

I saw it last night. Frontline living by its name, and I thought it was very well done (while saving the fainter hearted the less savoury bits we all know are there).

The Gagarin scene moved me.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Still there...

BFBS Forces News on Instagram: "North Korea's troops in Russia — where are they?🤔 14,000 were deployed. At least 6,000 are believed dead This week, Kim Jong Un unveiled housing for their families — a rare admission of losses"

866 likes, 0 comments - forcesnews on February 20, 2026: "North Korea's troops in Russia — where are they?🤔 14,000 were deployed. At least 6,000 are believed dead This week, Kim Jong Un unveiled housing for their families — a rare admission of losses".

www.instagram.com

 

[HavokFour]

I believe this means all EU countries bordering Russia are now out of the Ottawa Convention.

Poland pulls out of treaty banning antipersonnel mines, says it will use them to defend against Russia

Poland needed to defend itself against Russia, a country which “has very aggressive intentions vis a vis its neighbors,” the country's deputy defense minister said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

I believe this means all EU countries bordering Russia are now out of the Ottawa Convention.

Poland pulls out of treaty banning antipersonnel mines, says it will use them to defend against Russia

Poland needed to defend itself against Russia, a country which “has very aggressive intentions vis a vis its neighbors,” the country's deputy defense minister said.

www.nbcnews.com

Will Canada shelter behind Latvia's anti-personnel mines?

 

[HavokFour]

South Korea is looking to further deepen ties with Europe.

Korea mulls joining NATO initiative to fund weapons for Ukraine - The Korea Times

South Korea is reviewing whether to join a NATO initiative to help finance the purchase of U.S. weapons for Ukraine, diplomatic sources said Friday...

www.koreatimes.co.kr

 

[GR66]

Reports that Belarus has initiated large-scale mobilization of troops:

Belarus launches rapid reserve mobilization

Residents in western Belarus have reported sudden reserve call-ups and rapid deployment orders near the country’s border with NATO member states, according to statements from opposition officials and local accounts published Feb. 2026, raising attention over what critics describe as

defence-blog.com

Russia/Belarus seeking a quick end to the war by pushing on Kyiv from the North?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Reports that Belarus has initiated large-scale mobilization of troops:

Belarus launches rapid reserve mobilization

Residents in western Belarus have reported sudden reserve call-ups and rapid deployment orders near the country’s border with NATO member states, according to statements from opposition officials and local accounts published Feb. 2026, raising attention over what critics describe as

defence-blog.com

Russia/Belarus seeking a quick end to the war by pushing on Kyiv from the North?

If Belarus comes into this fight with troops it will be hard for Poland to sit on its hands.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Reports that Belarus has initiated large-scale mobilization of troops:

Belarus launches rapid reserve mobilization

Residents in western Belarus have reported sudden reserve call-ups and rapid deployment orders near the country’s border with NATO member states, according to statements from opposition officials and local accounts published Feb. 2026, raising attention over what critics describe as

defence-blog.com

Russia/Belarus seeking a quick end to the war by pushing on Kyiv from the North?

I would also think that Belarus shipped a lot of its first line equipment to the Russians over the last 2+yrs to compensate for the massive losses that the Russians have occurred. I don’t see Belarus being able to replace this equipment ‘like for like’ either.
With all the new equipment now has, i would expect their equipment to cut right through the Belarusians right quick.

 

[GR66]

I would also think that Belarus shipped a lot of its first line equipment to the Russians over the last 2+yrs to compensate for the massive losses that the Russians have occurred. I don’t see Belarus being able to replace this equipment ‘like for like’ either.
With all the new equipment now has, i would expect their equipment to cut right through the Belarusians right quick.

At the very least massing troops at the border with the mere threat of invasion would force Ukraine to significantly redeploy its forces to face the potential threat. Kyiv is less than 150km by road from the border. Less troops in the East might allow Russia to make additional advances there.

 

[Kirkhill]

At the very least massing troops at the border with the mere threat of invasion would force Ukraine to significantly redeploy its forces to face the potential threat. Kyiv is less than 150km by road from the border. Less troops in the East might allow Russia to make additional advances there.

On the other hand the local threat to Lviv from the Belorussian border may justify taking people away from building drones and using them instead.

 

[quadrapiper]

Reports that Belarus has initiated large-scale mobilization of troops:

Belarus launches rapid reserve mobilization

Residents in western Belarus have reported sudden reserve call-ups and rapid deployment orders near the country’s border with NATO member states, according to statements from opposition officials and local accounts published Feb. 2026, raising attention over what critics describe as

defence-blog.com

Russia/Belarus seeking a quick end to the war by pushing on Kyiv from the North?

Belarus, or Lukashenko specifically, doing a dance for an audience of one? Can't imagine there's too much Belarusian enthusiasm, especially below "Cabinet" level, for getting stuck in on behalf of Moscow.

Edit: odds on a coup?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Belarus, or Lukashenko specifically, doing a dance for an audience of one? Can't imagine there's too much Belarusian enthusiasm, especially below "Cabinet" level, for getting stuck in on behalf of Moscow.

I guess the question of, ‘when was the time during the winter months did Belarus conduct a winter exercise that included a ‘surprise’ call up?
If the answer is, last year this time or 3yrs ago in mid February, the question becomes is this really an issue?

 

[GR66]

I guess the question of, ‘when was the time during the winter months did Belarus conduct a winter exercise that included a ‘surprise’ call up?
If the answer is, last year this time or 3yrs ago in mid February, the question becomes is this really an issue?

From the original article:

Pavel Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, told Ukrainian broadcaster Kyiv24 that the pace and manner of the call-ups differ from previous reserve training campaigns.


“Summonses, for example, arrive at 8:00 in the morning — they bring the summons and say to arrive at the place of service by 9:00. Or a summons arrives at 22:00 in the evening, and by 8:00 in the morning you must arrive in a completely different city of Belarus. That is, there is indeed a mass call-up taking place now. No refusals are accepted, everyone is taken under arms, for one month, for two. They also take mobile phones, meaning there is no contact with relatives,” Latushko said.

According to Latushko, the measures are being conducted under the guise of a sudden readiness inspection but amount in practice to a hidden mobilization. He said social and medical deferments are reportedly being ignored during the process, and individuals called up are immediately transferred to military units.

Independent Belarusian outlet Zerkalo reported that its journalists contacted local military enlistment offices while posing as relatives and received confirmation that summonses were being issued and executed on the same day. Officials contacted by the publication suggested the activity could be tied to a mobilization readiness check rather than a routine training campaign.

So maybe a mobilization readiness check, but sure sounds like a pretty expensive and disruptive exercise for a country with a pretty weak economy. Also, why run a snap readiness check with pretty strict measures (no social/medical deferments, phones taken, etc.) unless you were needing to test your mobilization readiness because you were expecting to need to mobilize for real.

As far as I know there is no credible threat of invasion of Belarus by NATO or Ukraine so if they're expecting the need for mobilization it would likely be for offensive purposes.

Maybe the tinfoil is making me imagine things that aren't there but this (if true) sounds a little out of the ordinary.

 

[Czech_pivo]

From the original article:

So maybe a mobilization readiness check, but sure sounds like a pretty expensive and disruptive exercise for a country with a pretty weak economy. Also, why run a snap readiness check with pretty strict measures (no social/medical deferments, phones taken, etc.) unless you were needing to test your mobilization readiness because you were expecting to need to mobilize for real.

As far as I know there is no credible threat of invasion of Belarus by NATO or Ukraine so if they're expecting the need for mobilization it would likely be for offensive purposes.

Maybe the tinfoil is making me imagine things that aren't there but this (if true) sounds a little out of the ordinary.

It’s the 4yr anniversary of the war starting. They are most likely rattling the chains of the Ukrainians