Iran Super Thread- Merged

[medicineman]

Or was the first shot an intentional miss?

Or maybe the guidance systems were off and they were going old school using math to fire the spread based on boat vs target speed/direction. Academic at this point given the ship's now a reef and a gravesite...

 

[Kirkhill]

Or maybe the guidance systems were off and they were going old school using math to fire the spread based on boat vs target speed/direction. Academic at this point given the ship's now a reef and a gravesite...

Speculation is an enjoyable sport.

 

[GR66]

If true, then I am quite satisfied. In fact the US should be reinforcing this message by broadcasting the exchange and continuously telling the Iranian military how to surrender and that turning against the IRGC is the best way to help Iran and the people. The Iranian military being mostly intact is a important element of transitioning Iran to a new secular government.

The problem is who do you expect the Iranian Army to surrender to? There is nobody on the ground there to surrender to. Are they to just lay down their arms, declare themselves disloyal to the regime and be massacred by the IRGC? Desert the Army and hide among the civilian population and hope the IRCG crumbles? Or initiate a civil war against the IRGC?

Is an individual Iranian Army soldier going to make a decision like that on his own? Can a unit commander assume that none of his troops will remain loyal to the regime and kill him if he suggests either laying down arms or revolution?

I certainly hope that something positive rises out of the ashes of this bombing campaign rather then just an expansion of the misery and mess that is already Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but as is often said Hope is not a course of action.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Man I would love my gas price to be $1.50, we were up to $1.80 even before all this.

Oh that's right, you live in beautifully overpriced British Colombia.

 

[medicineman]

Speculation is an enjoyable sport.

Spectator sports are the best for keeping your mind active

Having said that, when Belgrano was sunk, Conqueror's skipper had the option of using Tigerrfish vs deadhead torps and went with the unguided spread using periscope, sonar and ded reckoning...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The problem is who do you expect the Iranian Army to surrender to? There is nobody on the ground there to surrender to. Are they to just lay down their arms, declare themselves disloyal to the regime and be massacred by the IRGC? Desert the Army and hide among the civilian population and hope the IRCG crumbles? Or initiate a civil war against the IRGC?

Is an individual Iranian Army soldier going to make a decision like that on his own? Can a unit commander assume that none of his troops will remain loyal to the regime and kill him if he suggests either laying down arms or revolution?

I certainly hope that something positive rises out of the ashes of this bombing campaign rather then just an expansion of the misery and mess that is already Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but as is often said Hope is not a course of action.

They don't surrender, they switch sides. This is a fairly common event in many third world countries. The issues you raise is always the calculation and gamble the commanders make and take in doing so. I suspect that the IRGC also preemptively arrested and removed Army Commanders who were considered disloyal or likley to be disloyal.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Or was the first shot an intentional miss?

Like a warning shot or internal sabotage?

 

[brihard]

They don't surrender, they switch sides. This is a fairly common event in many third world countries. The issues you raise is always the calculation and gamble the commanders make and take in doing so. I suspect that the IRGC also preemptively arrested and removed Army Commanders who were considered disloyal or likley to be disloyal.

There has to be a viable side to switch to. I’ve seen nothing remotely suggesting there’s presently a viable alternative to the regime in Iran.

I remain unconvinced that, at present, there’s a group in Iran ready be a credible and effective alternative government.

I don’t think the U.S. is hung up on that. If they can attrit the regime such that the current Iranian constitutional order remains but is more pliant to the U.S., they’re fine with that. Dead Iranian civilian dissidents is neither a bug nor a feature. It’s an externality that the U.S. doesn’t really bear the cost of.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The problem is who do you expect the Iranian Army to surrender to? There is nobody on the ground there to surrender to. Are they to just lay down their arms, declare themselves disloyal to the regime and be massacred by the IRGC? Desert the Army and hide among the civilian population and hope the IRCG crumbles? Or initiate a civil war against the IRGC?

If this is true ...

Exclusive: Before it was sunk by US, Iranian ship IRIS Dena was offered shelter by India

Second Iran warship, IRIS Lavan, docked at Kochi on March 4

indianexpress.com

India Quietly Provides Refuge for an Iranian Landing Ship

Reports broke in the Indian media late on Friday, March 6, that the country has quietly been harboring an Iranian vessel this week after it made an ur...

maritime-executive.com

Sri Lanka takes custody of an Iranian vessel off its coast after US sank an Iranian warship

Sri Lanka has taken custody of an Iranian ship after it asked for help near its coast. The Sri Lankan navy on Friday brought 204 Iranian sailors from the IRIS Bushehr to a base near Colombo, where officials ran border checks and medical tests.

apnews.com

... I suspect arrangements could have been made in the neighbourhood if the crew decided to sit it out while its ride became a reef.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

It looked like the torpedo that hit almost missed too, unless it's SOP to aim for the ships butt.

The SOP with a 48 is to bring it as close as possible to right under the center of the vessel to detonate and break its back. Like this (at 3:15 +)

Now, the video above is of a sinkex. The target is not moving nor fighting back, unlike the Iranian frigate in the present case. Add to that the fact that the Iranian frigate is not as big a target as the Amphib in the sinkex and this attack was the first actual operational torpedo firing by a US SSN, and in the end, one miss and a second one close enough for a kill is pretty reasonable.

 

[brihard]

The SOP with a 48 is to bring it as close as possible to right under the center of the vessel to detonate and break its back. Like this (at 3:15 +)

Now, the video above is of a sinkex. The target is not moving nor fighting back, unlike the Iranian frigate in the present case. Add to that the fact that the Iranian frigate is not as big a target as the Amphib in the sinkex and this attack was the first actual operational torpedo firing by a US SSN, and in the end, one miss and a second one close enough for a kill is pretty reasonable.

Realistically is there any point under the keel that won’t be a kill for most ships?

 

[The Bread Guy]

"Just ducking out for some smokes - back in a bit ...."

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Realistically is there any point under the keel that won’t be a kill for most ships?

Yes. In fact, an under stern shot or an under bow shot may break at a watertight bulkhead, leaving enough of the ship surviving - out of the fight for sure - but surviving. With a tow back to port, potentially repaired in time.

 

[brihard]

Yes. In fact, an under stern shot or an under bow shot may break at a watertight bulkhead, leaving enough of the ship surviving - out of the fight for sure - but surviving. With a tow back to port, potentially repaired in time.

Gotcha, thanks for the insight.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Chosen by Iranians - so long as he approves of the choice, apparently.

Or, maybe, as long he doesn't disapprove.

 

[OldSolduer]

The SOP with a 48 is to bring it as close as possible to right under the center of the vessel to detonate and break its back. Like this (at 3:15 +)

Now, the video above is of a sinkex. The target is not moving nor fighting back, unlike the Iranian frigate in the present case. Add to that the fact that the Iranian frigate is not as big a target as the Amphib in the sinkex and this attack was the first actual operational torpedo firing by a US SSN, and in the end, one miss and a second one close enough for a kill is pretty reasonable.

Now that is quite a kill.

Tom Clancy wrote things like this and other Navy things in Red Storm Rising.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Or, maybe, as long he doesn't disapprove.

Toe-MAY-toe, toe-MAH-toe …

 

[GR66]

Yes. In fact, an under stern shot or an under bow shot may break at a watertight bulkhead, leaving enough of the ship surviving - out of the fight for sure - but surviving. With a tow back to port, potentially repaired in time.

There are a couple of examples from WWII. Here's a picture of the cruiser USS New Orleans followed by a summary of incidents provided by ChatGPT:

1.​

• Incident: Battle of Tassafaronga (30 Nov 1942)
• Attacker: Japanese destroyers firing Type 93 “Long Lance” torpedoes.

Damage:

• A torpedo detonated forward of turret No. 2.
• The entire bow—about 120 feet (36 m)—was blown off.
• The severed bow drifted past the ship.

Survival:

• Crew used coconut logs and makeshift plating to stabilize the front.
• She steamed backwards to Tulagi and later to Sydney for repairs.
• Eventually fully repaired and returned to combat in 1943.

---

2.​

• Incident: Battle of Tassafaronga

Damage:

• Hit by two Japanese torpedoes.
• The bow was nearly blown off, forward sections flooded, and fuel tanks ignited.

Survival:

• Despite catastrophic damage, the ship stayed afloat.
• She limped back to Tulagi and then to Pearl Harbor for major repairs.

---

3.​

• Incident: Torpedoed by the German submarine U‑410 in 1943.

Damage:

• A torpedo destroyed a large section of the forward hull and bow structure.

Survival:

• The ship survived the hit and was towed back to port for repairs.
• (She was later sunk in a separate attack in 1944.)

---

4.​

(Not torpedoed but often cited because the bow was completely lost.)

• Incident: Typhoon Viper

Damage:

• In extreme seas, the entire bow broke off.

Survival:

• The ship steamed 1,000+ miles stern-first to Guam.
• A temporary bow was fitted before permanent repairs.

---

5.​

• Incident: Torpedoed by the Japanese submarine I‑26 in 1942.

Damage:

• Torpedo destroyed the forward section of the ship, causing massive flooding.

Survival:

• Damage control saved the ship.
• She returned to port and was repaired.

[Edit] For some reason copying and pasting from ChatGPT didn't include the ships names in the incidents listed:

1. USS New Orleans (CA-32)
2. USS Minneapolis (CA-36)
3. HMS Penelope
4. USS Pittsburgh (CA-72)
5. USS Nashville (CL-43)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There has to be a viable side to switch to. I’ve seen nothing remotely suggesting there’s presently a viable alternative to the regime in Iran.

I remain unconvinced that, at present, there’s a group in Iran ready be a credible and effective alternative government.

I don’t think the U.S. is hung up on that. If they can attrit the regime such that the current Iranian constitutional order remains but is more pliant to the U.S., they’re fine with that. Dead Iranian civilian dissidents is neither a bug nor a feature. It’s an externality that the U.S. doesn’t really bear the cost of.

There is likley an underground network, supporting the return of the Shah, similar how the Islamist prepared their network for the return of Ayatollah in 1979.

I do agree with you that Trump would pivot in an instance if the Regime agreed to dismantle the remaining program.

 

[brihard]

There is likley an underground network, supporting the return of the Shah, similar how the Islamist prepared their network for the return of Ayatollah in 1979.

I do agree with you that Trump would pivot in an instance if the Regime agreed to dismantle the remaining program.

I’m sure such a network exists to at least some extent. I question whether Pahlavi would be seen as a democratically legitimate choice by a sufficient portion of Iranins in country. If that support was there I’m bloody sure the US and Israeli intelligence would know and the administration would be giving different signals on his viability.