Iran Super Thread- Merged

[KevinB]

Wouldn't surprise me.

The real question will be if those cells decide to do anything, or if having a cushy gig in the West is a better life.

As I posted above, the IRGC really polished and expanded the Shah’s network — both even less concerned about international law and relations than the Russians are, and assassinations where a routine aspect, both under the Shah and then Ayatollah(s).

That said, 9/11 inspired Anti-Terrorism activities in the West as well as the 7/10 attack on Israel took the gloves off a lot of nations, and a lot of the known ones got killed off.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Anyone here bother to read the US National Threat Assessment (Unclassified of course) document for 2025?

 

[PrairieFella]

Goodbye 2028 for the GOP, then.

All the wacky shit the Americans have been doing in the past 18 months and the straw that broke the camels back? Gas prices. Americans are pathologically incapable of caring about things that dont affect them personally lol.

 

[KevinB]

Anyone here bother to read the US National Threat Assessment (Unclassified of course) document for 2025?

Yes, it’s pretty shoddy.
The segment on Iran is weak and unfortunately the unclass report can’t/doesn’t delve into the nuclear program in great (or any ) depth.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yes, it’s pretty shoddy.
The segment on Iran is weak and unfortunately the unclass report can’t/doesn’t delve into the nuclear program in great (or any ) depth.

It flat out says ‘assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003’….

The US might want to NOT publish that sort of stuff IF it’s counter to what’s present in the Classified version…..it doesn’t make them look good

 

[GK .Dundas]

All the wacky shit the Americans have been doing in the past 18 months and the straw that broke the camels back? Gas prices. Americans are pathologically incapable of caring about things that dont affect them personally lol.

To be fair that pretty much describes the attitude of the entire human race. Humans are rarely nice people.

 

[KevinB]

It flat out says ‘assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003’….

The US might want to NOT publish that sort of stuff IF it’s counter to what’s present in the Classified version…..it doesn’t make them look good

Agreed.
However keep in mind was published March of 2025, from 2024 collation and honestly OBE at time of printing.

There has been releases since from DIA, CIA, as well as Congress and the WH of declassified information showing how far away Iran was from having enough fissile material for a bomb.
Even the UN has admitted that it was likely 10 days away before the US strikes last year, and based on the recently released declassified reports, Iran has begun to attempt assembly.

Also keep in mind that the USG sent JSOC assets to seize a Russian flagged ship that had departed Iran for Venezuela — something one generally doesn’t do in international waters - as well as warned off the Russian DDG and SSN attempting to escort it that they would be sunk if they intervened.

It doesn’t take a SCI cleared three assessment to understand that ship had something very significant on it.

 

[ytz]

Agreed.
However keep in mind was published March of 2025, from 2024 collation and honestly OBE at time of printing.

There has been releases since from DIA, CIA, as well as Congress and the WH of declassified information showing how far away Iran was from having enough fissile material for a bomb.
Even the UN has admitted that it was likely 10 days away before the US strikes last year, and based on the recently released declassified reports, Iran has begun to attempt assembly.

Also keep in mind that the USG sent JSOC assets to seize a Russian flagged ship that had departed Iran for Venezuela — something one generally doesn’t do in international waters - as well as warned off the Russian DDG and SSN attempting to escort it that they would be sunk if they intervened.

It doesn’t take a SCI cleared three assessment to understand that ship had something very significant on it.

You've made a better case here for war than any administration official (including POTUS) did.

 

[ytz]

All the wacky shit the Americans have been doing in the past 18 months and the straw that broke the camels back? Gas prices. Americans are pathologically incapable of caring about things that dont affect them personally lol.

American right learning that true strategic independence only comes from EVs......

 

[HavokFour]

And just like that, the last person he talked to...

Ukraine war briefing: Trump set to ease oil-related sanctions following Putin call

US president says sanctions will be removed until crisis sparked by US-Israel war on Iran eases, without giving further details. What we know on day 1,475

www.theguardian.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

Whereas it took us 31 years to go from Trudeau Sr. to Trudeau Jr.

IOW, some might argue, from the sublime to the ridiculous - in both cases...

 

[Czech_pivo]

Agreed.
However keep in mind was published March of 2025, from 2024 collation and honestly OBE at time of printing.

There has been releases since from DIA, CIA, as well as Congress and the WH of declassified information showing how far away Iran was from having enough fissile material for a bomb.
Even the UN has admitted that it was likely 10 days away before the US strikes last year, and based on the recently released declassified reports, Iran has begun to attempt assembly.

Also keep in mind that the USG sent JSOC assets to seize a Russian flagged ship that had departed Iran for Venezuela — something one generally doesn’t do in international waters - as well as warned off the Russian DDG and SSN attempting to escort it that they would be sunk if they intervened.

It doesn’t take a SCI cleared three assessment to understand that ship had something very significant on it.

Yes, I agree.
I look forward to seeing what the March 2026 version says. It will be interesting to see if it’s ‘delayed’ in being released due to what’s occurring right now.

 

[brihard]

Likely related so I’m posting it here- US consulate in Toronto got shot up this morning. I can’t remember which article had this detail but I read somewhere ten bullet casings. Toronto Police and RCMP investigating.

DEVELOPING: U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto hit by gunfire

Road closures are in place in Toronto’s downtown core after police say someone discharged a firearm at the U.S. Consulate early Tuesday morning.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Eaglelord17]

American right learning that true strategic independence only comes from EVs......

Ahh yes the same EVs that require China to get the rare earth minerals from… true strategic independence there.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Likely related so I’m posting it here- US consulate in Toronto got shot up this morning. I can’t remember which article had this detail but I read somewhere ten bullet casings. Toronto Police and RCMP investigating.

DEVELOPING: U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto hit by gunfire

Road closures are in place in Toronto’s downtown core after police say someone discharged a firearm at the U.S. Consulate early Tuesday morning.

www.ctvnews.ca

Not a good thing.

 

[brihard]

Not a good thing.

No kidding. Whoever did this really fucked up. Really good way to guarantee no stone gets left unturned investigatively.

 

[ytz]

Ahh yes the same EVs that require China to get the rare earth minerals from… true strategic independence there.

Stocks vs. Flows.

Building an EV is a discrete draw down of rare earth stocks. If China stops shipping rare earths, the car still works. It doesn't magically turn into a pumpkin. And that's aside from, ya know, the US having the ability to simply produce rare Earths, which they refuse to because they don't like the pollution.

Meanwhile, gas is a continuous flow, hypersensitive to every geopolitical event. And now every adversary on Earth knows that all they have to do to get Americans to quit any fight is just jack up gas to $3.5/gal. Knowing the pain threshold of Americans is very revealing of the decision space of every POTUS. Ergo, a limit on strategic independence.

But hey, if Americans (and folks like you) don't get this. It's fine. CRINK does. And Iran just demonstrated how well they understand this.

 

[ytz]

No kidding. Whoever did this really fucked up. Really good way to guarantee no stone gets left unturned investigatively.

As it should be.

 

[ytz]

And just like that, the last person he talked to...

Ukraine war briefing: Trump set to ease oil-related sanctions following Putin call

US president says sanctions will be removed until crisis sparked by US-Israel war on Iran eases, without giving further details. What we know on day 1,475

www.theguardian.com

Called it.

Amazing how war in Iran will end up fucking up Ukraine and Europe even more in the long run.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No kidding. Whoever did this really fucked up. Really good way to guarantee no stone gets left unturned investigatively.

I want to see them caught, convicted, jailed and then somehow turned over to the US to face charges there after they've done their time here. Oh, and if they aren't a CDN citizen, deported to where ever they came from after their served their time in our prison system and the US's.