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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Hm, Trump is saying the war is “very much complete”, and the markets appear to be pricing in the likelihood of an imminent U.S./Israeli withdrawal from this conflict.


Not clear which of the original strategic objectives have been accomplished. But, a two week mistake is better than a two month or two year one, should this be imminently wrapping up. If so, it will have come at the cost of yet more U.S. squandering of political and diplomatic capital, probably hardening the Iranian regime further, and badly damaging trust and relationships with the Gulf states.
 
Hm, Trump is saying the war is “very much complete”, and the markets appear to be pricing in the likelihood of an imminent U.S./Israeli withdrawal from this conflict.


Not clear which of the original strategic objectives have been accomplished. But, a two week mistake is better than a two month or two year one, should this be imminently wrapping up. If so, it will have come at the cost of yet more U.S. squandering of political and diplomatic capital, probably hardening the Iranian regime further, and badly damaging trust and relationships with the Gulf states.
So a more colossal TACO…
 
Hm, Trump is saying the war is “very much complete”, and the markets appear to be pricing in the likelihood of an imminent U.S./Israeli withdrawal from this conflict.


Not clear which of the original strategic objectives have been accomplished. But, a two week mistake is better than a two month or two year one, should this be imminently wrapping up. If so, it will have come at the cost of yet more U.S. squandering of political and diplomatic capital, probably hardening the Iranian regime further, and badly damaging trust and relationships with the Gulf states.
The strategic objective of letting insiders profit?
 
Maybe, but I won’t chuck shit at an abrupt withdrawal if it’s the correct choice. I’d rather chuck shit at doing something destructive and stupid in the first place.

I’m not sure. The other day I was playing with a scenario where in 3 years, the Dems regain the WH and the war in the Middle East is in the depths of a quagmire that make Iraq look like a Cyprus 1988 tour. Then imagine if a unilateral cessation of hostilities by the Americans would strengthen Iran and the West’s enemies. How does the new administration get out of a war they didn’t want without giving in to the Iranian regime? Or would they have to continue the war they didn’t want but staff it with hyper competent people?

Of course, Robert McNamara, Donald Rumsfeld, etc., were hyper competent. They ran things awesomely. 🙄 But once this is started, i think the new administration has to see it to the end, even if unpopular. The only thing less popular is a chaotic withdrawal leaving enemies in a stronger position than when they started.

Hopefully it doesn’t go that far.
 

Doesn’t sound like he plans on ending it anytime soon.

Looks like we are planning a ground incursion wrt taking over the straights.
Who the hell can say with this clown show of an administration?

Like I’ve said before, a U.S. invasion and occupation will lead to discovering just how high the American tolerance is for Telegram and Twitter videos of young American soldiers taking a drone to the face.
 
He can’t “take control” of a body of water that is not part of the United States. There’s what -5 countries - that are part of that straight and the 2 connecting gulfs.
 
Hm, Trump is saying the war is “very much complete”, and the markets appear to be pricing in the likelihood of an imminent U.S./Israeli withdrawal from this conflict.


Not clear which of the original strategic objectives have been accomplished. But, a two week mistake is better than a two month or two year one, should this be imminently wrapping up. If so, it will have come at the cost of yet more U.S. squandering of political and diplomatic capital, probably hardening the Iranian regime further, and badly damaging trust and relationships with the Gulf states.
Don’t underestimate the value of how much better life will be for Joe/Jane Iranian on the street if this just stopped next week - not to mention the Kurds continuing to get the backing they deserve after helping more than once, right? ;)
 
French Navy deployment to the region

1 CVN
3 LPA/H
13 frigates and destroyers
2 replenishment ships

That’s almost the entire French surface combat force.

I think the French may have one of the more realistic views of what's going on here.
I think they're also wondering if Iran could hit their soil.
They most likely can't of course according to the conventional wisdom. But are you willing to risk your family if the conventional wisdom is wrong?
BTW, that is the entire available French surface minus couple of frigates in refit.
 
Maybe, but I won’t chuck shit at an abrupt withdrawal if it’s the correct choice. I’d rather chuck shit at doing something destructive and stupid in the first place.
Like arming the shit out of the minority groups in Iran and saying, ‘have at it.’
 
He can’t “take control” of a body of water that is not part of the United States. There’s what -5 countries - that are part of that straight and the 2 connecting gulfs.
He’s looking to occupy all the Iranian coastal land in the Gulf - he’s trying to repeat the success the Greeks had Turkey in 1919-1920 when they tried to occupy all of Turkeys Med coastline and the Sea of Marama.

Hint: The Greeks didn’t have success.
 
He’s looking to occupy all the Iranian coastal land in the Gulf - he’s trying to repeat the success the Greeks had Turkey in 1919-1920 when they tried to occupy all of Turkeys Med coastline and the Sea of Marama.

Hint: The Greeks didn’t have success.
Ouch for him then :)
 
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