Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Eaglelord17]

And they are a maritime nation, at that...

A maritime nation that doesn't have a single operational attack submarine available & only a single missile sub out as there as their strategic deterrent, and no surface ships available to sail either.

A few years ago they were also a maritime nation that didn't have a maritime patrol aircraft. (Allied planes & crews provided their maritime patrol capability for a while, including Canada)



They made a point of sailing their shiny new carrier all over Asia recently, as part of a task group demonstrating that "Britain is back!"

And yet...here they are.

...

I realize that Israel & the US didn't include the UK in their planning, but there's enough going on in tne world at the moment to bring the RN's readiness level higher than 2 available River class...

Us criticizing them is pretty funny considering their capabilities are still substantially greater than ours.

What do we have for a navy again? Oh 4 subs that basically don’t work, 12 frigates which are in very questionable shape and past their intended lifespan, a leased resupply ship, some helicopters which are of dodgy quality and potentially worse than what it replaced, and we lack the bodies to even run most our stuff.

Those who live in glass houses…

 

[Czech_pivo]

It's a reflection of the base who elected and supports them.

The claims by the administration at this point have become pretty ridiculous.

They literally claimed the regime was destroyed two weeks ago (One member here even claimed "deleted") and yet here we are with Ayatollah Khomeini replaced by.... Ayatollah Khomeini.

The SECDEF declared "No quarter" most likely only because he thought it sounded badass, and probably doesn't actually know what it means, similar to when he described missiles that strike their targets with interception as "squirters" and nobody bothered to correct him on any of this and they literally let him say these things with no clarification.

Unfortunately, they're in deep now. I wish the US military luck, but taking down the IR / IRGC under the Trump Administration, I can't see this being some walk in the park. They're probably in way deeper than the American people realize.

And let be clear, the IR / IRGC has been a major force of destabilization, their support for terror groups, Russias war on Ukraine - for me, it's enough. Screw those guys. But launching a surprise attack during negotiations like this, with guys in charge who lie to the American people and don't under basic military terms, it's a bit concerning.

Their arrogance is coming back to bite them in the ass.
I want the regime and all its supporters in positions of power dead or out of a job but I’m it sure how the US is going to accomplish this.
As I said before, it’s 92 million people, you can’t just wave your magic wand and kill off 50, 150, 550, 1500 people and expect the thousands and thousands of other civil servants and military personnel not to pick up the flag and continue to wave it.
If 5% of the population, with complete access to the weapons, cash, resources and expertise continue to resist, that’s over 4 million people….

 

[Brad Sallows]

Assuming a change of government in Iran is desirable, what would be an effective way of achieving it?

Invasion and occupation (eg. Iraq)? Regime removal and let the locals fight it out (Libya, probably Iran)? Severe economic sanctions and other non-military pressure (eg. South Africa)? Just leave it alone and them evolve over decades?

 

[Remius]

Assuming a change of government in Iran is desirable, what would be an effective way of achieving it?

Certainly not the way they are going about it, it would seem.

Invasion and occupation (eg. Iraq)?

Maybe but not really desirable. And would likely be a repeat of the last few similar endeavours.

Regime removal and let the locals fight it out (Libya, probably Iran)?

Doubtful as it would leave a big mess.

Severe economic sanctions and other non-military pressure (eg. South Africa)?

Was that not already in place?

Just leave it alone and them evolve over decades?

Maybe. The previous ayatollah was well into his 80s. He was weakened by recent events. But that COA would take time. I doubt they were imminent in threat but I think like some that this was an opportunity taken with mistaken beliefs in the predicted outcome.

Timely piece here on some of this. While the US plays in the ME again, it is missing the real threats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/13/britain-empire-trump-iran-decline/

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If the regime falls apart soon, there is enough left of society to quickly transform. If the regime holds out and oppresses the people even more, then a long civil war breaks out and the ethnic stuff gets ugly.

 

[Remius]

If the regime falls apart soon, there is enough left of society to quickly transform. If the regime holds out and oppresses the people even more, then a long civil war breaks out and the ethnic stuff gets ugly.

The problem is that the regime is incredibly resilient. It’s had 40 years to create and perfect that resilience.

A political class of roughly ten thousand backed by a fanatic military arm of the the Republican Guard estimated at over a 100K meshed with institutional systems that support it all. Add a religious nexus and it’s a tough nut to crack.

The Unique Resilience of Iran’s Theocracy – Max J. Prowant

A particular blending of ideology and institutions give the mullahs an extra layer of protection against unrest.

lawliberty.org

 

[ytz]

If the regime falls apart soon, there is enough left of society to quickly transform. If the regime holds out and oppresses the people even more, then a long civil war breaks out and the ethnic stuff gets ugly.

And there's no way to stop that imperiling the region and the Strait.

 

[HavokFour]

Entirely different weapon classes. I’m not talking about Shaheds when I say ‘drone to the face’, I’m talking about the small cheap ones killing probably 1000+ Russians and Ukrainians a day. An FPV, a 10-20km fiber spool, and a few pounds of explosives. The stuff we see countless videos of killing dismounts in Ukraine.

Unfortunately that day may be coming.

This time the target was a structure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ru05f5/iranianbacked_militia_carried_out_a_fiber

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Lesson learned; "Keep your hanger doors closed"

 

[brihard]

Unfortunately that day may be coming.

This time the target was a structure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ru05f5/iranianbacked_militia_carried_out_a_fiber

It’s both inevitable and, probably, imminent that we see US forces targeted with FOV and the video shared on social media. There are no U.S. forces in the camp from that video, but the technology, once acquired and proven in use, will proliferate. There’s no reason to think U.S. ground forces will be particularly more resilient than Ukrainian ones against this threat.

 

[HavokFour]

Depending on how Russia and China respond to this, the US has gotten itself into a real mess.

Russia and China providing ‘military cooperation’ to Iran, foreign minister boasts

China has been helping Iran in its war against the US and Israel, Iran’s foreign minister boasted Saturday — days after confirming his country has also been aided by Russia.

nypost.com

 

[Lumber]

I don't know why I didn't realize this before now, but this really starting to feel like just the Americans version of the vaunted "3 day special military operation".

 

[daftandbarmy]

Better late than never...

UK Navy buys 20 USVs to act as unmanned 'proving ground' - Breaking Defense

The Ministry of Defence declined to say if the new vessels could be deployed soon to aid Iran-related maritime operations.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Remius]

I don't know why I didn't realize this before now, but this really starting to feel like just the Americans version of the vaunted "3 day special military operation".

And why not. Trump had a success in Venezuela with a short operation. He’s managed to get some of what he wants with tariffs. And a short bombing campaign in Iran to obliterate/not obliterate Iran’s nuclear capability. And Cuba is likely to fold soon too.

Except Iran isn't Venezuela and it seems Iran isn’t going to play by the art of the deal playbook.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Assuming a change of government in Iran is desirable, what would be an effective way of achieving it?

Invasion and occupation (eg. Iraq)? Regime removal and let the locals fight it out (Libya, probably Iran)? Severe economic sanctions and other non-military pressure (eg. South Africa)? Just leave it alone and them evolve over

No clue, I don’t get paid the big bucks to build something like this.
Invading and occupying a country of 92 million is an impossible task without a few million individuals on the ground.
South Africa had a de facto leader already for those people who we decided were the downtrodden, he was accepted for a decade+ before he was even released.
Going the Libya route would be an utter disaster for the region and Europe. We are still paying the price for that f$ck up.
The US didn’t even try to make a case to line up the Europeans, none. They could have put the carrot in front of them of rearming the Ukrainians as the price to back them in Iran. I’m sure a number would have signed on or at least been more sympathetic. Instead they listened to the whispering that Bibi did in their ear and pretended that it wasn’t Bibi’s hand massaging them but that of a young pretty girl. And voila, here they are, in need of a box of Kleenex and a miracle.