And while some may have immediately decried it as a failure, others among us immediately questioned whether the U.S. had actually applied proper strategic foresight to this, and whether they had properly considered risks and mapped out a realistic and viable theory of victory. Thus far the evidence at hand still does not really suggest that they have done those things. Clearly this has not gone quite as planned or intended, and it’s made the pronouncements of victory in the first days ring a bit hollow in light of the continued (and very much still to come) economic chaos, and the barely veiled threats that a purported allies had better help bail the U.S. out of its own mess.
To try to fob all these concerns and observations off as ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ is silly and disingenuous, and basically tries to ad hominem around valid critiques being levied at Trump’s strategizing.
Can you explain to me what YOU believe American/Israeli strategic objectives are?
I'll tell you what I believe they are, but I want to hear what you think they are...
I believe there are two immediate military objectives:
Nuclear Disarmament: Preventing Iran from developing or pursuing nuclear weapons.
Military Capacity Reduction: Destruction of Iran's missile production, missile stockpiles, and navy.
These are ongoing and the Israeli/American coalition is achieving considerable success.
I believe this is a medium-term military objective:
Proxy Network Neutralization: Stripping away the "Axis of Resistance" (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah).
Israel is mobilizing and looks poised to invade Southern Lebanon. Iran has been considerably weakened in Syria and elsewhere. The Houthi problem still needs to be resolved but the Saudis/Gulf States may be able to make a move there with Iran tied up at home.
I believe these two are longer-term strategic objectives:
Regional Hegemony Control: Impoe a new, more stable regional security architecture and eliminating Iran's ability to project power.
Regime Change/Collapse: Topple the current Iranian leadership or make them subservient to American hegemony.
Ongoing but this will not happen overnight.
Bigger picture and longer term we have further erosion in trust for the U.S., further erosion in the strength of America’s diplomatic relationships, long term harm to the economic and social security of the Gulf states, significant depletion of exquisite munitions, attrition of some very expensive defense capabilities, and a relative strengthening of China against the U.S.. All of these were foreseeable and foreseen, and were warned about.
This move is being done at the behest of the Gulf States. The leadership there is encouraging Trump in private. They are our Allies in the region and want the Iranians weakened. They also get it done without really having a lift a finger. It's a win-win for them.
Fortunately the U.S. military has lost few people so far and I hope that remains the case.
There does not appear to be any easy off ramp for Trump that will achieve whatever strategic objectives we’re able to discern. Iran remains an industrialized country of 90+ million with a technically capable and educated workforce, it has a lot of mountains to bury things under, and hardliners have much more ammunition now in the perennial power dynamics.
Any of this could change and I’ll reassess if it does. To this point a negative assessment of the trajectory the U.S. strategy is on is both grounded in fact and is reasonable.
Explain how it's a negative trajectory and why you believe this to be the case?
