OldSolduer
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Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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They pretty much were before too.
Just the CRINK axis helping out. At best, this will server some of the sanctions breaking through the UAE which the Emiratis turned a blind eye too. And even that's not a guarantee. They may cut a deal to save their own economies. Meanwhile, Iran can hold the whole Gulf hostage for a while to come.
People need to set aside emotion and ask themselves what they'd do in Iran's shoes. That old ECOA step in your OPP.
US National Counterterrorism Center director resigns over war in Iran
The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned on Tuesday, becoming the first and most senior member of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to resign over the war in Iran, saying Tehran posed no imminent threat to the United States.
www.reuters.com
Top counterterrorism official Kent resigns over Trump's Iran war, says Iran posed no imminent threat
The director of the National Counterterrorism Center has announced his resignation, saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war in Iran.
apnews.com
Ouch.
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I know how I'd bet re: the odds of this happening
US National Counterterrorism Center director resigns over war in Iran
The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned on Tuesday, becoming the first and most senior member of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to resign over the war in Iran, saying Tehran posed no imminent threat to the United States.
Top counterterrorism official Kent resigns over Trump's Iran war, says Iran posed no imminent threat
The director of the National Counterterrorism Center has announced his resignation, saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war in Iran.
Ouch.
This must be the type of interagency officials that Brad said were holding Trump back.
I know how I'd bet re: the odds of this happening
Some of the conversations here. I find it hard to believe some folks were in uniform. I know not everyone had bars on their uniform. But thinking through enemy COAs and motivations isn't just taught to officers. Take a second and think through what motivates the IRGC and what you would do in their shoes.
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Maybe POTUS47 didn't quite understand there was no threat from IRN - after all, he DID cancel security last summer for these guys who got death threats, right?US National Counterterrorism Center director resigns over war in Iran
The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned on Tuesday, becoming the first and most senior member of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to resign over the war in Iran, saying Tehran posed no imminent threat to the United States.
Top counterterrorism official Kent resigns over Trump's Iran war, says Iran posed no imminent threat
The director of the National Counterterrorism Center has announced his resignation, saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war in Iran.
Ouch.
Trump pulls security protections for Mike Pompeo, John Bolton
Hawkish foreign policy advisers from Trump's first presidency have faced alleged assassination threats from Iran.
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Extremely interesting article. Take a minute to read this article.
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over Iran war
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over war: 'Iran posed no imminent threat'
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over Iran war
U.S. counterterrorism director Joe Kent resigns over war: 'Iran posed no imminent threat'
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It isn't meant to be realistic. Writing down possible outcomes as if they were taken seriously makes it easier to see which ones ought not be taken seriously.I know how I'd bet re: the odds of this happening
It's mostly obvious no?
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The 2025 National Security threat assessment that came out in March of 2025 said that there was no nuclear threat from Iran at all.Maybe POTUS47 didn't quite understand there was no threat from IRN - after all, he DID cancel security last summer for these guys who got death threats, right?
Trump pulls security protections for Mike Pompeo, John Bolton
Hawkish foreign policy advisers from Trump's first presidency have faced alleged assassination threats from Iran.www.aljazeera.com
The new 2026 assessment hasn’t been released yet but if it’s not altered or delayed in its release until this ‘issue’ in Iran is over, it would be interesting to see what it says…
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And that won’t get many Allies lining up to send warships to help.US National Counterterrorism Center director resigns over war in Iran
The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned on Tuesday, becoming the first and most senior member of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to resign over the war in Iran, saying Tehran posed no imminent threat to the United States.
Top counterterrorism official Kent resigns over Trump's Iran war, says Iran posed no imminent threat
The director of the National Counterterrorism Center has announced his resignation, saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war in Iran.
Ouch.
KevinB
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Honestly I take those with a grain of salt as none of the SCI stuff is in there, so any HumInt, ElInt etc gathered isn't included for fear of jeopardizing sources. Now given some of the statements made by the USG, there may be some in there - as it is clear that based on the statements about Iran X days away from a warhead that some TSI SAP stuff was declassified.
Franly Iran has been a PITA for ages - the Saudi's and Omani's already have pipelines that can avoid the Strait of Hormuz -- honestly if the Gulf States wanted to - they could work on MultiNational Efforts to lay pipes across to avoid the highly troubled areas. Outflow in Northern Jordan up through the Suez to avoid the Red Sea, and also expand the Omani terminals to avoid the Persian Gulf, and specifically the Strait of Hormuz.
Yeah overground pipelines aren't ideal, and some of that terrain is awful - they could also go out via Israel (albeit I doubt anyone wants to do that as Israel may decide they need that oil at any specific time, not to mention the issue with involving Israel anyway).
It is MineSweeper...
QV
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Fully expect there to be a swath of people who plan to try and harm the current administration enough to lose in the mid-terms and it will be sensationalized by the corrupt media establishment. That is the primary objective of the never-Trumpers, Dems, and large potion of the MSM, no matter the topic.
To come out and say Iran is no threat to the US is about as laughable as it gets. Iran since about 1979 has always been a threat to the US and every other western nation as well.
daftandbarmy
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Welcome to the horns of a dilemma...
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace
NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council between 2022 and 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
Trump could continue to prosecute the war in Iran by persisting with his devastating aerial campaign. But this is already yielding diminishing returns, given that the U.S. military has already struck most of its targets. The alternative is to put American boots on the ground. That comes with awful risks and is precisely what Trump, as a presidential candidate, repeatedly pledged never to do. But it may be the only way to ensure an Iranian regime more amenable to his demands. Trump may also consider smaller, more targeted operations related to maritime security or Iran’s nuclear program. But these, too, would pose significant risks to American soldiers and likely prompt retaliation—and there is little chance that they would lead to Iran’s capitulation.
Alternatively, Trump could outsource the war by arming political or ethnic factions that oppose the regime in Tehran. That would be a recipe for disaster: mobilizing the Kurds or any other ethnic separatist group would keep many anti-regime Iranians at home and fragment the opposition. Such a move could result in the deaths of a few more Iranian soldiers, but it would be highly unlikely to meaningfully diminish the regime’s ability to repress internal dissent. It would also risk exacerbating regional conflict and driving mass migration.
That leaves one option: try to achieve a formal cease-fire. Theoretically, of course, Trump could simply declare that the degradation of Iran’s military and the killing of Khamenei constitute victory and walk away. But this is harder than it sounds. He cannot unilaterally stop Tehran from attacking U.S. assets or the Gulf states. Iran would rather fight a protracted war with the United States now than repeated wars with Israel in the coming years. Even if the United States unilaterally withdraws from the fight, if a future Iran-Israel conflict looks inevitable, Iran will likely continue targeting U.S. interests in the region as well as the Gulf states and energy infrastructure.
Iran’s strategic objective now is to impose such high costs on the United States and the Gulf states that Trump will opt for a cease-fire that includes a restriction on future Israeli actions. In essence, Iran wants to force him to choose between Israel’s security interests and the stability of global markets. The bottom line is that the war Trump started has no good ending. And every day it goes on seems to delay a better future for the Iranian people. This is a tragedy that only Khamenei and Trump, together, could engineer.
www.foreignaffairs.com
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace
NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council between 2022 and 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
Trump could continue to prosecute the war in Iran by persisting with his devastating aerial campaign. But this is already yielding diminishing returns, given that the U.S. military has already struck most of its targets. The alternative is to put American boots on the ground. That comes with awful risks and is precisely what Trump, as a presidential candidate, repeatedly pledged never to do. But it may be the only way to ensure an Iranian regime more amenable to his demands. Trump may also consider smaller, more targeted operations related to maritime security or Iran’s nuclear program. But these, too, would pose significant risks to American soldiers and likely prompt retaliation—and there is little chance that they would lead to Iran’s capitulation.
Alternatively, Trump could outsource the war by arming political or ethnic factions that oppose the regime in Tehran. That would be a recipe for disaster: mobilizing the Kurds or any other ethnic separatist group would keep many anti-regime Iranians at home and fragment the opposition. Such a move could result in the deaths of a few more Iranian soldiers, but it would be highly unlikely to meaningfully diminish the regime’s ability to repress internal dissent. It would also risk exacerbating regional conflict and driving mass migration.
That leaves one option: try to achieve a formal cease-fire. Theoretically, of course, Trump could simply declare that the degradation of Iran’s military and the killing of Khamenei constitute victory and walk away. But this is harder than it sounds. He cannot unilaterally stop Tehran from attacking U.S. assets or the Gulf states. Iran would rather fight a protracted war with the United States now than repeated wars with Israel in the coming years. Even if the United States unilaterally withdraws from the fight, if a future Iran-Israel conflict looks inevitable, Iran will likely continue targeting U.S. interests in the region as well as the Gulf states and energy infrastructure.
Iran’s strategic objective now is to impose such high costs on the United States and the Gulf states that Trump will opt for a cease-fire that includes a restriction on future Israeli actions. In essence, Iran wants to force him to choose between Israel’s security interests and the stability of global markets. The bottom line is that the war Trump started has no good ending. And every day it goes on seems to delay a better future for the Iranian people. This is a tragedy that only Khamenei and Trump, together, could engineer.
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
Seventeen years ago, while serving as an Iran desk officer in the U.S. State Department, I asked a more veteran colleague about the latest inflammatory statement by Mahmood Ahmadinejad, then the Iranian president. My colleague responded: “Stop paying attention to Ahmadinejad. Only focus on...
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Their Shanghai exchange is basically there to intentionally counter the US dollar. Trade in Yuan but have it backed by physical silver so if China manipulates the currency you can cash out in a alternative physical asset. That sounds like a better deal than the American dollar to me.
Mind you it is appearing like using the American dollar for trade is more about keeping imperialist America from invading you than anything else.
QV
Army.ca Veteran
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Welcome to the horns of a dilemma...
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace
NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council between 2022 and 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
Trump could continue to prosecute the war in Iran by persisting with his devastating aerial campaign. But this is already yielding diminishing returns, given that the U.S. military has already struck most of its targets. The alternative is to put American boots on the ground. That comes with awful risks and is precisely what Trump, as a presidential candidate, repeatedly pledged never to do. But it may be the only way to ensure an Iranian regime more amenable to his demands. Trump may also consider smaller, more targeted operations related to maritime security or Iran’s nuclear program. But these, too, would pose significant risks to American soldiers and likely prompt retaliation—and there is little chance that they would lead to Iran’s capitulation.
Alternatively, Trump could outsource the war by arming political or ethnic factions that oppose the regime in Tehran. That would be a recipe for disaster: mobilizing the Kurds or any other ethnic separatist group would keep many anti-regime Iranians at home and fragment the opposition. Such a move could result in the deaths of a few more Iranian soldiers, but it would be highly unlikely to meaningfully diminish the regime’s ability to repress internal dissent. It would also risk exacerbating regional conflict and driving mass migration.
That leaves one option: try to achieve a formal cease-fire. Theoretically, of course, Trump could simply declare that the degradation of Iran’s military and the killing of Khamenei constitute victory and walk away. But this is harder than it sounds. He cannot unilaterally stop Tehran from attacking U.S. assets or the Gulf states. Iran would rather fight a protracted war with the United States now than repeated wars with Israel in the coming years. Even if the United States unilaterally withdraws from the fight, if a future Iran-Israel conflict looks inevitable, Iran will likely continue targeting U.S. interests in the region as well as the Gulf states and energy infrastructure.
Iran’s strategic objective now is to impose such high costs on the United States and the Gulf states that Trump will opt for a cease-fire that includes a restriction on future Israeli actions. In essence, Iran wants to force him to choose between Israel’s security interests and the stability of global markets. The bottom line is that the war Trump started has no good ending. And every day it goes on seems to delay a better future for the Iranian people. This is a tragedy that only Khamenei and Trump, together, could engineer.
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
Seventeen years ago, while serving as an Iran desk officer in the U.S. State Department, I asked a more veteran colleague about the latest inflammatory statement by Mahmood Ahmadinejad, then the Iranian president. My colleague responded: “Stop paying attention to Ahmadinejad. Only focus on...
18 days (not months or years) into this and that is the media.
The US and Israel achieved overwhelming destruction and victory over Iran's forces in single digit days.
A far cry from the first post on this thread:
