Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Czech_pivo]

You act as though Israel is in control. Israel will do what America says if America tells them what to do because their country is 100% dependent on it.

If America told them we will stop selling arms to you and give you the South Africa treatment if you carry on, then they wouldn’t act. And if they did they wouldn’t last long as a nation.

Somehow America has forgotten that they are the ones in charge of them not the other way around.

Israel launching a nuke would likely be the death of the country. Any public support the west has would die off and they would become completely isolated. That is a red line that cannot be tolerated by anyone.

Would be interesting to see things play out with the US President and its administration if they ever attempted to do that. I have zero doubt that the Israelis have already planned and gamed this out. What their moves would be is what is not known.

 

[Remius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036843134915600689

This sure is escalating

 

[daftandbarmy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036843134915600689

This sure is escalating

I hope they don't classify them as a 'Light Brigade'

 

[brihard]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036843134915600689

This sure is escalating

 

[ytz]

There's no option but to escalate now. Iran can keep tolling the strait and going for a while. They are making more money than ever. The Sanctions relief that Trump gave them was 10x more than Obama's containers of money. If you're the IRGC why would you not keep this going? Even better, Iranians who were anti-regime are rallying to the flag a bit because it turns out when the Americans bomb the IRGC who live in your neighbourhood, they are still bombing your neighbourhood....

Flip side, if you're Trump what choice do we have. Anything less than grabbing a few islands looks like surrender. And the Iranians will be left more dominant than ever over the strait. The only way I can see out is grab a whole bunch of islands including Kharg. And then force the Iranians to the table.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There's no option but to escalate now. Iran can keep tolling the strait and going for a while. They are making more money than ever. The Sanctions relief that Trump gave them was 10x more than Obama's containers of money. If you're the IRGC why would you not keep this going? Even better, Iranians who were anti-regime are rallying to the flag a bit because it turns out when the Americans bomb the IRGC who live in your neighbourhood, they are still bombing your neighbourhood....

Flip side, if you're Trump what choice do we have. Anything less than grabbing a few islands looks like surrender. And the Iranians will be left more dominant than ever over the strait. The only way I can see out is grab a whole bunch of islands including Kharg. And then force the Iranians to the table.

I still ask the question, how do they feed, hydrate, provide shelter and sanitation to the troops on those islands?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I still ask the question, how do they feed, hydrate, provide shelter and sanitation to the troops on those islands?

Logistics aren't important in war

 

[daftandbarmy]

The light are off and nobody's home...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036960318421627282

 

[brihard]

The light are off and nobody's home...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036960318421627282

Is there an NYT article actually saying this?

 

[HavokFour]

Is there an NYT article actually saying this?

EDIT: Found it. Buried in here.

Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely

Iran has severely damaged several American military bases in the Middle East, officials say.

www.nytimes.com

Archive

Not quite what they said.

Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Six U.S. service members were killed in a strike on Port Shuaiba that destroyed an Army tactical operations center. Iranian drones and missiles also targeted Ali Al Salem Air Base, damaging aircraft structures and injuring personnel, and Camp Buehring, damaging maintenance and fuel facilities.

And here is what the IRGC has been saying. So that X account is blending the two together.

IRGC claims all US bases in Middle East destroyed | Caliber.Az

A representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ebrahim Zolfaghari, claimed that all American military bases in the Middle East have been destroyed....

caliber.az

 

[HavokFour]

This is going to be nasty if they pull the trigger.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036964388989468960

 

[OldSolduer]

But but but anti pers mines are illegal!!!

Actually no they’re not. Canada and others won’t employ them

 

[HavokFour]

And in a shock to no one, arms and supplies are flowing in.

Russia sending drones to Iran, western intelligence says​

Archive

 

[daftandbarmy]

This is going to be nasty if they pull the trigger.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036964388989468960

Great... they're falling for the diversion

 

[brihard]

This is going to be nasty if they pull the trigger.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036964388989468960

I don‘t think neutralizing the garrison and taking the island would challenge the U.S. military much. Wrecking a conventional force and taking the ground their on is what the U.S. military excels at. The challenge would be sustaining their own force there and keeping losses to a politically acceptable level.

 

[KevinB]

You act as though Israel is in control. Israel will do what America says if America tells them what to do because their country is 100% dependent on it.

If America told them we will stop selling arms to you and give you the South Africa treatment if you carry on, then they wouldn’t act. And if they did they wouldn’t last long as a nation.

Somehow America has forgotten that they are the ones in charge of them not the other way around.

Israel launching a nuke would likely be the death of the country. Any public support the west has would die off and they would become completely isolated. That is a red line that cannot be tolerated by anyone.

You totally fail to understand the Pro Israeli lobby down here. As well as the reality of post WW2 guilt with how Jewish people were treated.

Any President who attempted a SA like embargo would be destroyed.

 

[ytz]

I don‘t think neutralizing the garrison and taking the island would challenge the U.S. military much. Wrecking a conventional force and taking the ground their on is what the U.S. military excels at. The challenge would be sustaining their own force there and keeping losses to a politically acceptable level.

And countering the Iranian reaction. For this gambit to be successful, losses have to be minimal. And Iran can't succeed in further attacks on infrastructure or shipping. If oil goes to $150, Americans are going to be asking what the point was of those dead troops.

 

[KevinB]

And countering the Iranian reaction. For this gambit to be successful, losses have to be minimal. And Iran can't succeed in further attacks on infrastructure or shipping. If oil goes to $150, Americans are going to be asking what the point was of those dead troops.

There is a willingness to decouple “Fortress North America” from global oil prices. However those suggestions don’t seem to gather that doing that will all but end the Petrodollar as standard.

The weirdest thing is (well to me) so many Republicans seem to think there is some 4-6D chess going on, and that this is all planned out.
Even non MAGA folks.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There is a willingness to decouple “Fortress North America” from global oil prices. However those suggestions don’t seem to gather that doing that will all but end the Petrodollar as standard.

The weirdest thing is (well to me) so many Republicans seem to think there is some 4-6D chess going on, and that this is all planned out.
Even non MAGA folks.

Denial is a river in Egypt.

 

[KevinB]

Denial is a river in Egypt.

Hey, if you can’t situate the estimate, what’s the purpose right?