It's the precursor to arguing that we should jump into the fray.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
It's the precursor to arguing that we should jump into the fray.
- Reaction score
- 1,666
- Points
- 1,160
Whatever happens between now and say 9am EST on Monday, it will be interesting to see what The Donald says/does as I'm not sure he's willing to allow the stock market to repeat what occurred on Friday again on Monday, or the rest of the shorten week (with the market being closed on Friday). Its also 'Quarter end' on Tuesday, so that very well may factor into his words/actions as well.
How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out
How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out
The oil industry's grim outlook for global oil and gas supplies stands in contrast to the Trump administration's promise that the disruption is short term.www.cnbc.com
- Oil industry executives painted a grim picture of the Iran war supply disruption at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
- They warned that the disruption is bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon.
- The disruption to jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is even bigger. Shortages are rippling through Asia and will hit Europe by April, they said.
- Security experts said escalation of the war is likely. The conflict could break the Gulf Arab nations economies
Extract from above article:
Would that necessary be a bad thing?
Whatever happens between now and say 9am EST on Monday, it will be interesting to see what The Donald says/does as I'm not sure he's willing to allow the stock market to repeat what occurred on Friday again on Monday, or the rest of the shorten week (with the market being closed on Friday). Its also 'Quarter end' on Tuesday, so that very well may factor into his words/actions as well.
How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out
How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out
The oil industry's grim outlook for global oil and gas supplies stands in contrast to the Trump administration's promise that the disruption is short term.
- Oil industry executives painted a grim picture of the Iran war supply disruption at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
- They warned that the disruption is bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon.
- The disruption to jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is even bigger. Shortages are rippling through Asia and will hit Europe by April, they said.
- Security experts said escalation of the war is likely. The conflict could break the Gulf Arab nations economies
It's actually truly amazing and beyond all reason that oil isn't $150 globally. Even though cash prices out of Dubai are already $160+.
Saw a great Economist interview where the interviewee (at CERAweek) made the point at the end that none of these execs have also fully grasped what this will do for EVs yet. Not because of climate change. But because nobody is going to forget the time their economy got wrecked by supply interruption.
But if you own some oil stock or really some options, Friday was great. Heck, I have some cash ready to go into index funds if he pushes this in to recession. Already wiped off 6 months of gains across the market. I'm hoping for 2023 prices before this is done. At least it makes up for me paying more at the pump.
- Reaction score
- 11,544
- Points
- 1,040
Unless they know beforehand exactly where something is going to land, and there's no likelihood of error, they aren't "actively engaging in hostilities" if they knock shit down.
- Reaction score
- 11,544
- Points
- 1,040
From what I read, the US and Soviet Union weren't at war.
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 2,979
- Points
- 1,040
Ukraine has been busy shaking hands with all this going on.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Ukraine securing 10-year defense deals with Gulf states amid Iran war
- Reaction score
- 11,544
- Points
- 1,040
My own enthusiasm is compromised by realism. International law has to be flexible enough to allow mostly peaceful countries to deal with habitual shit-disturbers, harshly if necessary. If international law is repeatedly applied in a one-sided manner that always seems to bind one side, then it loses its merit/legitimacy - the frustrated parties are simply going to walk away from it. My standard is a bit lax; my point is to hold other people who claim to hold a higher standard, to the standard they claim - to be rigorously consistent, even when it doesn't suit their politics.
Iran's government doesn't respect most laws and customs enough to deserve the benefit of any excuse-making. If they choose terror, people ought to call it what it is and demand punishment. There will certainly be a collective pounce on the US if it follows through on some of Trump's blustering threats.
Too much of what I read is inflected by the desire of people to see Trump (or the US, or Israel) get a comeuppance. Not long ago it was necessary to have a discussion to clarify whether it was unfair of the US to sink an Iranian warship on the fringes of the theatre (I recollect a similar argument over the Belgrano when I was in high school). Now some people are wanting to blur/erase significant distinctions of involvement in the category of "belligerents" who are not actually fighting. I'm utterly certain that military assets are always fair game, and utterly certain that non-military assets are not always fair game and that the calculation depends in part on what the owner is doing.
- Reaction score
- 11,544
- Points
- 1,040
I already stated a position/idea. Neutral countries should escort neutral shipping to encourage the combatants (ie. Iran) to leave it alone. They don't have to fight anyone; they don't have to pick a side; they could even choose to suck up an attack without responding to more than the direct event.
- Reaction score
- 12,891
- Points
- 1,160
If you know how many mines, and the types of mines, and presumably the location of the mines, how much of a threat are the mines?
Task Force 59 (TF 59) is a specialized unit within the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the U.S. Fifth Fleet, established in September 2021 to rapidly integrate unmanned systems and artificial intelligence (AI) into maritime operations in the Middle East. Its primary focus is increasing maritime domain awareness in critical choke points, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea.
www.navy.mil +1
Key Aspects of Task Force 59 in the Strait of Hormuz:
- Mission: To deter malicious actions, enhance surveillance over 5,000 miles of coastline, and provide real-time data to command centers by utilizing unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and aerial vehicles (UAVs).
- Operational Capability: The task force reached full operational capability by March 2023,, accumulating over 30,000 operational hours in the region, with goals to integrate over 100 unmanned systems.
- Technological Integration: TF 59, which includes the specialized "Task Group 59.1," partners with regional allies, such as Bahrain and the UAE, to operate USVs (like the Mantas T-12 and Saildrone Explorer) and UAVs (like the Aerovel Flexrotor).
- Significance of the Strait: The area is a vital choke point where 20% of the world's oil supply flows, making it a high-tension area for maritime security.
- Operational Successes: The task force has successfully conducted patrols in the Persian Gulf and transited the Strait of Hormuz with unmanned surface vessels supported by U.S. Coast Guard cutters.
Fleet Forces Command (.mil) +4
Key Technologies and Operations
- Unmanned Systems: TF 59 has worked with over 23 different unmanned systems (aerial and surface).
- Task Group 59.1: Established in January 2024, this group ("The Pioneers") specifically focuses on the operational deployment of unmanned systems and AI to bolster security, including anti-submarine and mine-related tasks.
| July 21, The Canberra recently moored at Qatari Emiri Naval Forces Base in Hamad Port, near Mesaieed, for a scheduled visit. August 9, The Rotational LCS Crew 22? (Gold) assumed command of the Canberra during a crew exchange ceremony in the ship's pilot house at Mina Salman Port. January 22, 2026 USS Canberra transited the Strait of Hormuz soutbound, escorting the Heavy Load Carrier Seaway Hawk with four decommissioned Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships on board. |
Key Mine Clearance UUVs and Systems
- Knifefish (General Dynamics): A medium-class UUV designed for the U.S. Navy's Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) to detect and identify mines in high-clutter environments, enhancing safety by keeping vessels away from danger zones.
Knifefish Unmanned Undersea Vehicle - General Dynamics Mission Systems
Knifefish is a medium-class Mine Countermeasure (MCM) Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (UUV) that is designed for deployment off the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS).
gdmissionsystems.com
The U.S. Navy uses the Atlas Elektronik SeaFox as an expendable, fiber-optic guided unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) for mine identification and neutralization, often designated as the AN/SLQ-60 system. It is a "one-shot" system that carries a shaped charge to destroy mines, providing a safe, rapid, and efficient method to clear underwater ordnance.
Naval Technology +4
Key Aspects of USN SeaFox Operations
- Purpose: Primarily used for identifying and neutralizing moored, ground, and floating mines in "one-shot" operations.
- System Components: The system includes a SeaFox I (identification) variant for inspection and the SeaFox C (combat) variant for destruction.
- Deployment Platforms: SeaFox is versatile and can be deployed from surface combatants, mine countermeasure vessels, Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats (RHIBs), and unmanned vessels.
- Performance: It can reach speeds of 6 knots and has a range of 1 km, guided via a thin fiber-optic cable for real-time video feedback.
vanguardcanada.com +1
Naval Technology +1
SeaFox Mine Disposal Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV)
The Seafox is a mine disposal unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) manufactured by Atlas Elektronik. The UUV was developed based…
www.naval-technology.com
....
Task Force 59, UxV specialists, stationed at Manama, Bahrain
Task Group 59.1, focused on minewarfare
LCS-30 - USS Canberra - potential MCM package been hanging around Manama since July of last year, transited the Strait of Hormuz southbound in January with the retiring conventional Avenger MCMs hitching a ride on a large carrier.
Capable of deploying the Knifefish UUV (16 hr endurance to detect and identify mines)
Capable of deploying autonomous RIBs (GARCs - 40 kts, 700 NM)
Capable of deploying Sea Fox UUVs - single shot mine disposal device (1 km, 4 kts)
Meet GARC: The US Uncrewed ‘Sea Drones’ Taking on Iran with Surveillance and Strike Capabilities
Uncrewed vessels have risen to prominence in recent years after Ukraine used explosive‑laden speedboats to inflict significant damage on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
....
Meanwhile:
UK has just a ‘handful’ of minehunting drones in Gulf as Trump slams Starmer
Donald Trump won't be impressed
www.express.co.uk
ARCIMS drone launches KATFISH minehunting system
ARCIMS autonomously launched and recovered the KATFISH sonar system during NATO trials off Portland, demonstrating a new combined capability for rapid mine countermeasures and seabed inspection.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
One of the RN's handful of minehunting drones.
This was the carrier with the Avenger MCMs that USS Canberra (Independence class LCS-30) escorted out of the Persian Gulf in January.
There are two more similarly equipped LCS parked in Singapore.
- Reaction score
- 7,282
- Points
- 1,260
Think of the knock on effect.
What happens to the hundred of thousands of migrant workers from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines and such who would be out of a job? How do they feed their families, pay their children’s school fees, help out their parents, etc, etc.
- Reaction score
- 12,891
- Points
- 1,160
And the requisite nay-sayer has been found
The US has counter-mine ships homeported in the Middle East. Are they effective?
Some military and defense experts argue the Independence-class littoral combat ship equipped with the MCM mission package falls short of its predecessor.
www.navytimes.com
- Reaction score
- 5,157
- Points
- 1,160
I’m sure you all have seen this, but just in case….This war is now on a path to be fundamentally different than the past 50 - 60 years.
- Reaction score
- 3,751
- Points
- 1,040
Depends on the year. At one point the US had boots on the ground in Russia.
- Reaction score
- 39,699
- Points
- 1,210
Last production 34 years ago. The Trump administration cancelled then reinstated the replacement program, currently funding two aircraft for potential 2027 delivery (Boeing E7A).
Low density high cost fleets are prime targets, whether on land, sea or air.
Low density high cost fleets are prime targets, whether on land, sea or air.
- Reaction score
- 5,157
- Points
- 1,160
Well at this point losing those aircraft isn’t a huge loss. NATO has some, they will back it up, am I right? Lol
