Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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One of the problems he has is that there's no incentive for the Iranians to quit. They won't disengage. They'll keep holding the Strait hostage. May even keep attacking US forces. If you're the IRGC, this is your moment to leverage concessions.
But I also suspect that he is scared of casualties. He knows what that did to Bush's popularity. He ran against Clinton painting her as a warmonger. And he knows what hell there will be if Democrats sweep the midterms.
So he's trying to square the circle here. Look tough while backing out and not getting blamed for the massive mess being left behind.
But I also suspect that he is scared of casualties. He knows what that did to Bush's popularity. He ran against Clinton painting her as a warmonger. And he knows what hell there will be if Democrats sweep the midterms.
So he's trying to square the circle here. Look tough while backing out and not getting blamed for the massive mess being left behind.
daftandbarmy
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Looks like the winds are dropping by this weekend, suitable for parachute operations...
Kharg Island, 06, IR 7 Days Weather - The Weather Network
See the Kharg Island, 06, IR extended weather forecast including feels like temperature, wind gust and chance of rain or snow from TheWeatherNetwork.com
www.theweathernetwork.com
Why in the world would they do it as a parachute drop? If they take those islands it’ll initially be by helicopter airlift, after they’re satisfied they pounded the piss out of any and all defenses. Those air strikes will be the tell it’s about to happen.Looks like the winds are dropping by this weekend, suitable for parachute operations...
Kharg Island, 06, IR 7 Days Weather - The Weather Network
See the Kharg Island, 06, IR extended weather forecast including feels like temperature, wind gust and chance of rain or snow from TheWeatherNetwork.com
McG
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A token land force to seize a token objective that is isolated from mainland is not a decisive moment. Even with that, we have one member of the administration promising more of the same but harder while the president appears to be laying groundwork for a TACO.
The TACO would be the worst potential outcome for global democracies … I don’t know what the least damaging path for the US itself would be.
The TACO would be the worst potential outcome for global democracies … I don’t know what the least damaging path for the US itself would be.
daftandbarmy
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If they actually destroy the infrastructure on Kharg, it loses value as a bargaining chip.
Abandoning the Gulf allies to Iran is the worst outcome for American credibility. A month ago, the Strait was open and safe. Now, it's essentially confirmed as Iranian dominated. The IRGC is confirmed as unremovable. Nightmare for the Gulf States who have to cut a deal basically accepting Iranian primacy over the Strait and the Gulf. They may even be compelled into ending American basing and the petrodollar, when China eventually helps along negotiations.....
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Onto an island?Looks like the winds are dropping by this weekend, suitable for parachute operations...
Kharg Island, 06, IR 7 Days Weather - The Weather Network
See the Kharg Island, 06, IR extended weather forecast including feels like temperature, wind gust and chance of rain or snow from TheWeatherNetwork.com
From quickly looking at a Google map of Kharg Island, from my civilian eye the potential drop zone looks to be more more than 1-1,200 meters wide and maybe 2,000 meters long at best. Would someone really drop 3-500+ troops and into an area that small on an island in a hostile environment?
daftandbarmy
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Every day before breakfast, if required, weather permitting
Dispatching from 450ft AGL is recommended though.
HavokFour
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Spain seems to be doubling down......
Spain closes airspace to US aircraft involved in Iran war
It follows a decision by the Spanish government to deny the US use of the two jointly run military bases in Andalusia.www.bbc.com
Spain closes airspace to US aircraft involved in Iran war
Now Italy.
Italy Denies US Aircraft Access to Military Base, Corriere Says
ArchiveCorrect. I’m talking about taking out the island’s defenders in preparation for a landing.
I still think landing on Kharg would be stupid and would likely result in a bunch of U.S. deaths to fires from the mainland.
What we don’t see and what I suspect is happening and is a big factor is back channel work from the Chinese making it clear that cutting off their flow of Iranian oil would cause them to take very painful retaliatory actions. China still has a hand around a number of economic throats and could really make some things suck for America if they needed to.
The U.S. has been knocking on NATO doors asking them to move air defences to the Gulf.
www.politico.eu
Poland won’t divert Patriot air defense systems to Gulf
The U.S. is approaching all its NATO allies looking for more air defense batteries, said a senior defense official from a NATO country.
www.politico.eu
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And their PM is supposed to be quite tight with The Donald. Its a little late for the Ides of March, but there seems to be a bit of circling around The Donald at the moment.....
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The moment that Poland did that, Russia would be taking advantage of it - 100%.The U.S. has been knocking on NATO doors asking them to move air defences to the Gulf.
Poland won’t divert Patriot air defense systems to Gulf
The U.S. is approaching all its NATO allies looking for more air defense batteries, said a senior defense official from a NATO country.
Those that were saying before that the US had planned this operation out and that all was well are pretty quiet right now.
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I have trouble believing that there wasn't planning that went into this, but I suspect that they focused on the most optimistic of plans, not the one put forward by the random Major that said "Hey, what if this doesn't work the way you think...."
I think the optimistic plan was OBE with the deaths of the 30K Protestors that should have been the ones to take up arms against the regime....
The Pessimistic planner is now hiding in his cubicle trying not to crow "I TOLD YOU SO" while the optimistic folks are scrambling for ideas.
I think the optimistic plan was OBE with the deaths of the 30K Protestors that should have been the ones to take up arms against the regime....
The Pessimistic planner is now hiding in his cubicle trying not to crow "I TOLD YOU SO" while the optimistic folks are scrambling for ideas.
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I 100% agree that there was planning. But I think that we all (well, maybe most?) agree that the 'worst case scenarios' may not have been looked at robustly enough or if they were, taken into account enough with proper contingencies put in place.
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