Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Kirkhill]

There are Iranians, and then there are Iranians. There might be some questions of control.

Iran has dug its heels in and paid the price

Regime faces impossible task of rebuilding its economy while US navy stops its imports

www.telegraph.co.uk

Apparently you can't run an economy without money.

 

[Czech_pivo]

There are Iranians, and then there are Iranians. There might be some questions of control.

Iran has dug its heels in and paid the price

Regime faces impossible task of rebuilding its economy while US navy stops its imports

www.telegraph.co.uk

Apparently you can't run an economy without money.

No talk, conveniently, about Turkey receiving about 17-18% of its Nat Gas supply from Iran. Contract is set to expire at the end of this month but dollars to doughnuts it quietly gets renewed because where, given the current state of affairs is Turkey going to replace that much Nat Gas on the open market?

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ing-expiry-no-talks-yet-extension-2026-04-18/

Turkey says Iran gas pipeline contract nearing expiry, no talks yet on extension​

 

[Cloud Cover]

TACO..

Apparently you can't run an economy without money.

have they tried putting their elbows up and printing as much as they can, at speeds never before achieved?

 

[HavokFour]

When asked about the vessels that had been attacked.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2045502732589842741

 

[Colin Parkinson]

When asked about the vessels that had been attacked.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2045502732589842741

To be fair, I suspect that no one in the US Administration or the Islamic Regime knows exactly what is going on. My guess is that the IRGC and other political factions in the Regime have fallen out with each other and any monies being paid out by shipping companies is not going to the factions with the guns/drone/boats and they are pissed as corruption income is what sustained them. Hopefully we are seeing the final days as the regime eats itself. But I am sure the Western Progressives will do their best to "Save the regime" for some godforsaken reason.

 

[ytz]

 

[Czech_pivo]

View attachment 99921

Closed on major US holidays as well.

 

[brihard]

It’s now the Sphincter of Hormuz with how often it’s opening and closing.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It’s now the Sphincter of Hormuz with how often it’s opening and closing.

Stealing!!!!

 

[dapaterson]

 

[OldSolduer]

View attachment 99925

A strategic genius he is not. A master planner he is not.

Moron he is.

 

[HavokFour]

"You can't close it because we closed it!"

 

[HavokFour]

So much for not renewing it.

US extends waiver on Russian oil sanctions to ease Iran war shortages despite Bessent denial

The U.S. Treasury Department has extended its pause on sanctions on Russian oil shipments to ease shortages from the Iran war, days after Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out such a move.

apnews.com

The Ukrainians responded accordingly shorty after this was announced.

 

[brihard]

Per ISW: Seems like the war has really solidified the IRGC’s hold on political power in Iran. The hardliners are more in charge now than they were.

Iran Update Special Report, April 18, 2026

Regime institutions aligned with Vahidi are presenting a cohesive front against Araghchi and in support of the IRGC.

understandingwar.org

 

[Infanteer]

As usual, ISW is 2 weeks behind the time and just copying other people's work.

There were some good articles on Vahidi's rise a few weeks back, and how the regime was changing from one where a Parliament worked under the supervision of the Ayatollahs to a more hardline dictatorship by the IGRC.

 

[brihard]

As usual, ISW is 2 weeks behind the time and just copying other people's work.

There were some good articles on Vahidi's rise a few weeks back, and how the regime was changing from one where a Parliament worked under the supervision of the Ayatollahs to a more hardline dictatorship by the IGRC.

Yeah, they tend not to move quickly to conclusions, nor do they claim to be doing primary research on anything that I’ve seen. For anything not changing too rapidly is it unreasonable to reference them as a somewhat more cautious aggregator and assessor of what’s being reported?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Per ISW: Seems like the war has really solidified the IRGC’s hold on political power in Iran. The hardliners are more in charge now than they were.

Iran Update Special Report, April 18, 2026

Regime institutions aligned with Vahidi are presenting a cohesive front against Araghchi and in support of the IRGC.

understandingwar.org

There is a lot of infighting right now and part of that is who gets the money that is still coming in. The majority of the economy has ground to a halt and the IRGC depends on the corruption income from that to sustain itself. Also what is happening is the pretence of the Mullahs being in charge is being dispensed with. If you go back a couple years you find that I was arguing that the IRGC had already taken over, but allowed the Clerics to stage manage the political theatre and distract the people from who the real power is. Since January, the IRGC is ruling from the muzzle of a gun and there is no going back to what political Iran looked like even 6 months ago.

 

[brihard]

Trump states that the U.S. navy intercepted and ultimately fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel trying to run the blockade, “blowing a hole in the engineroom”. The ship is claimed to have then been seized by U.S. Marines.



Whatever the righteousness or not of the strike and seizure, this will probably not help negotiations being steered on Iran’s side by the hardliners.

 

[The Bread Guy]

As usual, ISW is 2 weeks behind the time and just copying other people's work.

There were some good articles on Vahidi's rise a few weeks back, and how the regime was changing from one where a Parliament worked under the supervision of the Ayatollahs to a more hardline dictatorship by the IGRC.

Winning, indeed …

 

[ytz]

Whatever the righteousness or not of the strike and seizure, this will probably not help negotiations being steered on Iran’s side by the hardliners.

Probably crazy enough to work. It's a race between Trump/Republican poll numbers in the US and economic collapse in Iran. Hard to say which comes first.