Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

We're still clearing sea mines from WW1 and 2.

Operation OPEN SPIRIT - Canada.ca

Canadian Armed Forces participation in mission to clear explosive remnants of war from the Baltic Sea

www.canada.ca

This was my dive team deployment.

and all the NATO countries reduced their mine clearance capabilities over the years. The Gulf States should have invested in such technology, but they prefer other to do their dirty work.

 

[QV]

If functionally closing the strait to merchant shipping was this predictable and relatively easy for Iran, and with the macroeconomic consequences we all know are coming, I wish they would show more candor in articulating why they thought this was all worth it. I definitely hold in contempt those senior officials who promoted this then were surprised by Iran’s actions in the strait.

What makes you think anyone was surprised by what was easily predicted?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trying to divine exactly why anyone would be "surprised" by Iran doing what everyone assumes to be the obvious is nigh impossible.

Generally, though, assuming stupidity on the part of someone making a decision you don't agree with and/or don't understand is rash folly (and bad manners). Your reasoning and their reasoning is each subject to the uncertainties introduced by different factors (knowns and unknowns) and different weightings. If premises are not identical, conclusions are likely to be different.

Another possible explanation is "We do X, which gives them an excuse to do Y, which gives us the excuse to do Z". "Oh, but we ourselves don't really care about Y, and Z would be catastrophic for them. They must know that. They would never do Y." So you'd be surprised if they did in fact do Y, unless you thought of something beyond Z that would swing things back in their favour.

A great number of critics simply can't stop themselves from situating the US where they think it ought to be. When the US says it doesn't care much about something that some other countries really care about, it is pointless to insist that the US has to care about it.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting attempt by the IRGC to portray themselves as not just Islamists.

 

[brihard]

Interesting attempt by the IRGC to portray themselves as not just Islamists.

Well sure. They’re also revolutionaries. And, they guard stuff.

 

[quadrapiper]

Totally fair. I’ve never been to sea beyond the ferry to Vancouver Island, so again I come from a position of ignorance.

If you have that pleasure again and you're going through the Inside Passage (TSA-SWA) give the scenery the hairy eyeball.

 

[brihard]

If you have that pleasure again and you're going through the Inside Passage (TSA-SWA) give the scenery the hairy eyeball.

BC’s beautiful. I always enjoy chances to go out there, rare as they are for me.

 

[quadrapiper]

BC’s beautiful. I always enjoy chances to go out there, rare as they are for me.

It is lovely, and that bit of coast especially so.

Also illustrative of the fractally concealing nature of coastlines.

 

[brihard]

It is lovely, and that bit of coast especially so.

Also illustrative of the fractally concealing nature of coastlines.

Oh right, realized what thread we’re in and the context of your reply. Got it now.

 

[HavokFour]

So, following the fact that Iran let it be known it wasn't going to attend.

 

[KevinB]

So, following the fact that Iran let it be known it wasn't going to attend.

View attachment 100027

What I don’t understand is why he just did say “well we tried, the Iranians didn’t want to, so we are going to fuck them up a bit more”

 

[HavokFour]

New pictures allegedly from the USS Abraham Lincoln showing what's being served as meals.

More photos emerge of meals on Navy ships as Pentagon denies shortages

A serving officer shared images of meals on USS "Abraham Lincoln"; the Pentagon denied food shortages and said sailors have full meals.

www.newsweek.com

Gerald D. Givens Jr. is a retired member of the U.S. Air Force and the founder and CEO of Raleigh Boots On The Ground, a nonprofit that supports military families. Givens has been vocal about his disapproval of President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In the past week, he received the pictures from a friend of his, whose son is currently serving on board the ship in the Middle East.

"[My friend] told me her son has lost 17 pounds," Givens told Newsweek. "Her husband, also a close friend and a retired veteran, shared that a care package they sent in December still has not arrived."

 

[Colin Parkinson]

For you detail nerds, which tankers and how they are evading the US blockade

 

[ytz]

What I don’t understand is why he just did say “well we tried, the Iranians didn’t want to, so we are going to fuck them up a bit more”

The stock market is why. He's starting to get more cautious because he's being told how precarious the situation is.

Every day that the Strait is closed the market and the wider economy gets more fragile. It was the AI bubble holding all this up before this war. And even then their valuations were starting to come down, as doubts creep. Some are down ~20%. And the circular investing looks like the CDOs before the GFC. And with the helium shortage, there's now a literal physical threat to the AI bubble. Few more months and we can add a catastrophic chip shortage to the oil shortage which will be the pin that pops the AI bubble. I'm sure he's got every tech CEO screaming at him.

 

[Eaglelord17]

The stock market is why. He's starting to get more cautious because he's being told how precarious the situation is.

Every day that the Strait is closed the market and the wider economy gets more fragile. It was the AI bubble holding all this up before this war. And even then their valuations were starting to come down, as doubts creep. Some are down ~20%. And the circular investing looks like the CDOs before the GFC. And with the helium shortage, there's now a literal physical threat to the AI bubble. Few more months and we can add a catastrophic chip shortage to the oil shortage which will be the pin that pops the AI bubble. I'm sure he's got every tech CEO screaming at him.

And foreign countries applying pressure. And the risk of countries dumping US bonds driving up interest rates killing their economy. And US manufacturing needing aluminum. Etc.

It is actually quite impressive how much economic leverage is able to be applied by Iran, likely the largest reason no US president before Trump has attacked them.

 

[ytz]

Before this act, it was Schrodinger's leverage. Nobody knew for certain if Iran had any. Trump just confirmed it. That has consequences. Some good. Some bad.

Long term, I think it's good for everybody to understand that vulnerability.

Short term. Ooooh boy.