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Iran Super Thread- Merged

suffolkowner said:
polyurethane plastics and coatings. mix resin with an isocyanate hardener. Ill find out the scoop next week but possible that oil sources diverted for gas and diesel
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Gotcha. Petrochemical for plastics and such.

Yeah. The American hubris in thinking the closure won’t real hurt them is mind blowing. The cascade in supply chains is really only just starting.
 
ytz said:
There's something worse that high prices. Absolute shortage. And no country experiencing this shock the way Asia is right will no go back to status quo ante on importing lots of oil.
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We say that now, but I don’t buy that. After the crisis is over people forget very quickly when convience comes back.

Look at our supply chains, after Covid you think we would have learned about trying to keep most of it in house or having stock on hand. But it isn’t as cheap or convenient as just in time delivery.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
We say that now, but I don’t buy that. After the crisis is over people forget very quickly when convience comes back.

Look at our supply chains, after Covid you think we would have learned about trying to keep most of it in house or having stock on hand. But it isn’t as cheap or convenient as just in time delivery.
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Just ii Time has been cheaper, but never , ever convenient.
 
Eaglelord17 said:
We say that now, but I don’t buy that. After the crisis is over people forget very quickly when convience comes back.

Look at our supply chains, after Covid you think we would have learned about trying to keep most of it in house or having stock on hand. But it isn’t as cheap or convenient as just in time delivery.
Click to expand...

The twin energy shocks of the 70s and the low oil prices that follow say otherwise. And back then there were no real alternatives. Now there are. And whatever you or I think sitting comfortably in Canada isn't relevant. Oil demand growth for at least a decade has been driven by China and the developing world. Somehow don't think they are interested in increasing their exposure to US Foreign Policy after this.
 
ytz said:
The twin energy shocks of the 70s and the low oil prices that follow say otherwise. And back then there were no real alternatives. Now there are. And whatever you or I think sitting comfortably in Canada isn't relevant. Oil demand growth for at least a decade has been driven by China and the developing world. Somehow don't think they are interested in increasing their exposure to US Foreign Policy after this.
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i expect sales of solar panels and batteries and ev's are doing quite well right now
 
suffolkowner said:
i expect sales of solar panels and batteries and ev's are doing quite well right now
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They are. More interesting to see are all the policies in the developing world outright forcing adoption of EVs. See Ethiopia's ban on gas car imports. If a country isn't manufacturing cars and doesn't have oil, it makes no sense to import gas cars and then further pressure your balance of payments needing to import oil. Basic trade economics. So we see, for example, Singapore going to 60% EV sales from low single digits, in 6 years. Nepal has half their sales as EVs. Etc. Heck, the growth of electric Tuk Tuks all over the Global South has been interesting to watch. And those things are a noticeable chunk of oil consumption in countries where allowed.
 
Meanwhile in Canada:

EV vs. Hybrid Sales Trends in Canada (2025-2026)
  • Hybrid Surge: Hybrids (non-plug-in) are seeing high popularity, exceeding 10% market share nationwide and even higher in provinces like Alberta (12.3%).
  • EV Slowdown: Following a record 2024, EV sales in Canada fell significantly in 2025. Q2 2025 saw ZEV sales (BEV + PHEV) drop to 9.2%, down from 9.7% in Q1.
  • Regional Differences: Hybrid adoption is strong nationwide, whereas BEV adoption is highly concentrated in Quebec and B.C..
  • Q3 2025 Snapshot: Hybrid vehicles reached a 12.4% market share (up 2.8% year-over-year), while fully electric vehicles dropped to 5.5% of registrations in Q3 2025, according to Motor Illustrated.
  • Market Drivers: Rising hybrid popularity is attributed to lower upfront costs, no range anxiety, and similar fueling to gas cars, notes the Vancouver Sun.
Key Data Points
  • 2024 (Record High): 202,103 new BEVs and 68,882 plug-in hybrids were registered.
  • Late 2025: Hybrid sales (full and mild) surged to nearly 1 in 5 new cars, notes Automotive News.
  • Nov 2025: ZEVs (BEV + PHEV) fell to 11.3% of total sales, down from 16.4% in November 2024.
  • 2026 Outlook: As The Globe and Mail notes, despite stumbling sales, Canada's EV transition faces continued, though slower, long-term growth pressures from mandates
 
Colin Parkinson said:
The Gulf States should have invested in such technology, but they prefer other to do their dirty work.
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That's not the reason. The reason is "It's not compatible with the Arab's character: it's not "manly"."

There is nothing flashy about mine clearance. Mine clearance is slow, boring, tedious, but needs to be meticulous, detailed, intellectual and requires vigilance and constant attention to every small aspect of the job as a team. Anything less can kill you.
 
Colin Parkinson said:
Meanwhile in Canada:

EV vs. Hybrid Sales Trends in Canada (2025-2026)
  • Hybrid Surge: Hybrids (non-plug-in) are seeing high popularity, exceeding 10% market share nationwide and even higher in provinces like Alberta (12.3%).
  • EV Slowdown: Following a record 2024, EV sales in Canada fell significantly in 2025. Q2 2025 saw ZEV sales (BEV + PHEV) drop to 9.2%, down from 9.7% in Q1.
  • Regional Differences: Hybrid adoption is strong nationwide, whereas BEV adoption is highly concentrated in Quebec and B.C..
  • Q3 2025 Snapshot: Hybrid vehicles reached a 12.4% market share (up 2.8% year-over-year), while fully electric vehicles dropped to 5.5% of registrations in Q3 2025, according to Motor Illustrated.
  • Market Drivers: Rising hybrid popularity is attributed to lower upfront costs, no range anxiety, and similar fueling to gas cars, notes the Vancouver Sun.
Key Data Points
  • 2024 (Record High): 202,103 new BEVs and 68,882 plug-in hybrids were registered.
  • Late 2025: Hybrid sales (full and mild) surged to nearly 1 in 5 new cars, notes Automotive News.
  • Nov 2025: ZEVs (BEV + PHEV) fell to 11.3% of total sales, down from 16.4% in November 2024.
  • 2026 Outlook: As The Globe and Mail notes, despite stumbling sales, Canada's EV transition faces continued, though slower, long-term growth pressures from mandates
Click to expand...

How relevant are numbers from before 28 February 2026?

According to the report released on Thursday by Transport Canada, 124,004 new vehicles were bought in February 2026, a modest 0.9% decline compared to the same month last year. Passenger car sales saw the sharpest drop, falling 3.8%, while truck sales edged down just 0.5%.

It is a different story however when it comes to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which saw 12,626 new sales in February. That is a 47.2% increase from February 2025, and an equally impressive 45.6% increase from the month prior.

As a result, ZEVs accounted for 10.2% of all new vehicle sales, up significantly from 6.9% a year earlier. The ZEV category includes both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which together are steadily capturing a larger share of the Canadian market.
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Source: Canada ZEV sales surge 47% after federal $5,000 rebate returns

I expect the March and April numbers to be even more spectacular.
 
Last edited:
HavokFour said:
A reminder that it won't be just a lack of fertilizer the world will be dealing with this year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2046285347664048562
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Backed by EC3:

Canada forecasts 2026 to be among the hottest years on record​

From: Environment and Climate Change Canada

News release​

January 19, 2026 – Ottawa, Ontario

The Government of Canada has released its annual global mean temperature forecast, providing early insight into expected global temperature conditions for 2026. Following record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024 and a comparably warm 2025, global temperatures are expected to remain at historically high levels.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest global mean temperature forecast indicates that 2026 will likely be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, which remains the warmest year ever observed. Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada’s long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record.

Canada forecasts 2026 to be among the hottest years on record - Canada.ca

The Government of Canada has released its annual global mean temperature forecast, providing early insight into expected global temperature conditions for 2026.
www.canada.ca www.canada.ca
 
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