CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Altair]

Oil and Gold is not what we should be relying on.

Other countries would love to have oil and gold to fall back on.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Other countries would love to have oil and gold to fall back on.

I’m old enough to remember hearing Michael Wilson deliver a speech on the H of C talking about Canada being a ‘drawer of water and hewer of wood.’
I was sad when I heard us described in that manner and 40 years later I’m still sad that it applies to us.

 

[Altair]

I’m old enough to remember hearing Michael Wilson deliver a speech on the H of C talking about Canada being a ‘drawer of water and hewer of wood.’
I was sad when I heard us described in that manner and 40 years later I’m still sad that it applies to us.

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is service based is around 75 percent, in line with countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is manufacturing is around 10 percent, in line with countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is natural resources is around 16 percent, higher than countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

We are far past a nation of hewers of wood, but we do a lot of it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Huh, how 'bout that...

Canadian manufacturing just saw largest monthly growth in 3 years: StatCan​

Canada’s economy managed slight growth after it shrunk in the last quarter of 2025, with February seeing a 0.2 per cent increase in GDP and a modest increase of 0.1 per cent in January, Statistics Canada said.

Based on current estimates, Statistics Canada is projecting that Canada’s annualized GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 will be 1.7 per cent.

The Bank of Canada projects the economy will expand 1.2 per cent in 2026, 1.6 per cent in 2027, and 1.7 per cent in 2028, “as growth in exports and business investment gradually resumes.”

The official final estimate for quarterly GDP growth will be released next month.

Canada’s tariff-hit manufacturing sector led the growth in February, rising by 1.8 per cent. This was the largest growth for the sector since January 2023 and was driven by a 3.6 per cent increase in durable-goods manufacturing.

Canadian manufacturing just saw largest monthly growth in 3 years: StatCan - National | Globalnews.ca

Canada’s tariff-hit manufacturing sector led the growth in February, rising 1.8 per cent. This was the largest growth for the sector since January 2023.

globalnews.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

I’m old enough to remember hearing Michael Wilson deliver a speech on the H of C talking about Canada being a ‘drawer of water and hewer of wood.’
I was sad when I heard us described in that manner and 40 years later I’m still sad that it applies to us.

Why ? What's wrong with capitalizing on our natural resources ?

And by the way, our fresh water is going to become a very hot commodity.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Why ? What's wrong with capitalizing on our natural resources ?

And by the way, our fresh water is going to become a very hot commodity.

Because we add minimum to no value in any of these goods. No intellectual value. We let others add that value.
We have an 18th century mindset in terms of these industries, not a 21st.
It’s great thing to have these resources available but it’s a terrible travesty that we don’t refine them into finish goods here and sell them at 10-20-50x the real end value.
How much high end aircraft machinery parts are are here from our aluminum? How much high computer components? Our oil is shipped off unrefined leaving it for others to do and sell those refined products at higher prices.
Have a watch here explaining our problem.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Because we add minimum to no value in any of these goods. No intellectual value. We let others add that value.
We have an 18th century mindset in terms of these industries, not a 21st.
It’s great thing to have these resources available but it’s a terrible travesty that we don’t refine them into finish goods here and sell them at 10-20-50x the real end value.
How much high end aircraft machinery parts are are here from our aluminum? How much high computer components? Our oil is shipped off unrefined leaving it for others to do and sell those refined products at higher prices.
Have a watch here explaining our problem.

Gotcha, we agree then.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is service based is around 75 percent, in line with countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is manufacturing is around 10 percent, in line with countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

The percentage of the Canadian economy that is natural resources is around 16 percent, higher than countries like France, USA, Germany, the UK.

We are far past a nation of hewers of wood, but we do a lot of it.

The main issue is that the 'services' industry in Canada is overwhelming geared towards the 'consumer oriented model', whereas in a place like Germany, the service industry is focused on high-skill technical services and logistics. Which do you think pays more? Which do you think adds 'more value' to the GDP?

Scott Galloway (in a link that I provided in another response in this thread), talks about the value of a Chinese worker assembling an iPhone in China for Apple vs the value that an American working for Apple does in the areas of 'logistics, or marketing, legal, design, etc.' That value is 15-20-30x more than the individual manufacturing the phone.

Another example that might be more relatable, the auto industry. The auto industry here in Canada is overwhelmingly focused on the manufacturing side of things. Virtually all of the high, value added parts of the industry is based outside of Canada - in the US and in Japan. By that I mean all of the vehicle design work, the engineering, the modeling, the testing is all done outside of Canada. Yes some minor engineering work is done at the production facilities, but no one is designing a vehicle from concept to production here in Canada. The computer modeling, the grunt work engineering, the initial concept testing, all that high end skills and intellect is done outside of Canada. We see zero value in any of it. What we do is the same as that Chinese worker making the iPhone - that's pretty much it - virtually all the rest is done outside of Canada, and that is where the real money is made.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Sadly, here's potential serious kick in the teeth.

Honda halts plan to build $15B EV plant in Canada: report

Honda Motors will suspend plans to build an electric vehicle plant in Canada after slow U.S. demand pushed the Japanese automaker 'to put hybrids at the centre of its North American strategy,' Nikkei Asia reported.

www.ctvnews.ca

Honda halts plan to build $15B EV plant in Canada: report​

 

[Altair]

The main issue is that the 'services' industry in Canada is overwhelming geared towards the 'consumer oriented model', whereas in a place like Germany, the service industry is focused on high-skill technical services and logistics. Which do you think pays more? Which do you think adds 'more value' to the GDP?

Scott Galloway (in a link that I provided in another response in this thread), talks about the value of a Chinese worker assembling an iPhone in China for Apple vs the value that an American working for Apple does in the areas of 'logistics, or marketing, legal, design, etc.' That value is 15-20-30x more than the individual manufacturing the phone.

Another example that might be more relatable, the auto industry. The auto industry here in Canada is overwhelmingly focused on the manufacturing side of things. Virtually all of the high, value added parts of the industry is based outside of Canada - in the US and in Japan. By that I mean all of the vehicle design work, the engineering, the modeling, the testing is all done outside of Canada. Yes some minor engineering work is done at the production facilities, but no one is designing a vehicle from concept to production here in Canada. The computer modeling, the grunt work engineering, the initial concept testing, all that high end skills and intellect is done outside of Canada. We see zero value in any of it. What we do is the same as that Chinese worker making the iPhone - that's pretty much it - virtually all the rest is done outside of Canada, and that is where the real money is made.

We are a branch plant country because we dont like playing with the big boys.

Remember how much the public moaned a groaned when homegrown bombardier needed help? Canadians were not interested and they sold off everything but the business jet division. We still build jets, but under the umbrella of airbus.

So as long as canadians are cheap we will forever be a branch plant. And that's fine, there is money to be made there, but either we fully back homegrown businesses like they do in China Europe or the USA or we watch Canadian companies flounder in the have them or cutthroat global competition, we cannot have both.

 

[Halifax Tar]

We are a branch plant country because we dont like playing with the big boys.

Remember how much the public moaned a groaned when homegrown bombardier needed help? Canadians were not interested and they sold off everything but the business jet division. We still build jets, but under the umbrella of airbus.

So as long as canadians are cheap we will forever be a branch plant. And that's fine, there is money to be made there, but either we fully back homegrown businesses like they do in China Europe or the USA or we watch Canadian companies flounder in the have them or cutthroat global competition, we cannot have both.

Canadians are regionally focused.

Youd get more traction for the manufacturing sector if you diversified its locations. Get some in the prairies and the Maritimes. Things will change.

 

[Altair]

Canadians are regionally focused.

Youd get more traction for the manufacturing sector if you diversified its locations. Get some in the prairies and the Maritimes. Things will change.

Canadian geography and political decentralization doesnt allow for that.

Nor is it efficient. Imagine the inefficiencies in force feeding auto manufacturing into the northwest territories or the Yukon? Sure, that's an exteme example, but it holds true for every region. It doesn't take 10 provinces and 3 territories to build a car or plane.

You can have manufacturing hubs doing their own thing in each region, but then like bombardier, why does a Maritimer want to support a Quebec business?

Canadians are cheap

 

[Halifax Tar]

Central Canadian geography and political decentralization doesnt allow for that.

FTFY

Nor is it efficient. Imagine the inefficiencies in force feeding auto manufacturing into the northwest territories or the Yukon? Sure, that's an exteme example, but it holds true for every region. It doesn't take 10 provinces and 3 territories to build a car or plane.

It doesn't. But we could encourage a spreading of our manufacturing bases. Why not have auto manufacturing is NB ? Why don't we tell Bombardier no problem with Gov help but you have to set up shop in Regina ?

You can have manufacturing hubs doing their own thing in each region, but then like bombardier, why does a Maritimer want to support a Quebec business?

Hamer meet the nails head.

Canadians are cheap

Canadians are regional and unserious. You say cheap but we spend absolutely stupid money on a horrible health care system. Canadians being cheap is a subject by subject claim.

 

[Altair]

FTFY

Each premier holds their little fiefdoms. You want a national manufacturing base? You need a centralised state like France that can run roughshod over lower levels of devolution.

Canadian provinces are too big and strong for that. And lt makes sense, Canada is bigger than Europe. Or put another way, we function more like the canadian version of the European union, and we all know that if the EU was a country they would be beset by inefficiencies and regionalism as well.

It doesn't. But we could encourage a spreading of our manufacturing bases. Why not have auto manufacturing is NB ? Why don't we tell Bombardier no problem with Gov help but you have to set up shop in Regina ?

Bombardier has zero interest in putting a shop in Regina. Parts, transport hubs, trained workforce, all in Ontario and Quebec. Why would it do that? The only reason it would is because the Canadian government paid it to do so, and paid it more than the inefficiencies it would cost. And the second a government stops or slows the subsidies is the instant that plant gets shut down.

Hamer meet the nails head.

Yes. Which is why people are up in arms about canadian tax dollars going to build pipelines that they view as only benefiting Alberta. But it helps all canadians, but people cannot see past their own noses. And this applies to potash in Saskatchewan, the auto industry in Ontario, aerospace in Quebec, and every other industry. But as long as we are beset by regionalism and cheapness at the same time, canadian manufacturing just wont be able to compete internationally outside of being branch plants to other nations big manufactures

Canadians are regional and unserious. You say cheap but we spend absolutely stupid money on a horrible health care system. Canadians being cheap is a subject by subject claim.

Spending on a sacred cow doesn't mean one is not cheap.

Buddy in a Ferrari (or in the context of expensive but not particularly great, a Volvo) but skips out on a bill is still cheap

 

[brihard]

FTFY



It doesn't. But we could encourage a spreading of our manufacturing bases. Why not have auto manufacturing is NB ? Why don't we tell Bombardier no problem with Gov help but you have to set up shop in Regina ?



Hamer meet the nails head.



Canadians are regional and unserious. You say cheap but we spend absolutely stupid money on a horrible health care system. Canadians being cheap is a subject by subject claim.

A lot of the manufacturing you’re describing exists where it does because of massive integrated supply chains. Particularly in the case of automotive, why would a manufacturer set up an assembly plants in the maritime or the prairies when parts will be bouncing back and forth between suppliers in Detroit and Windsor five or six times? They’ll put the plant where it’s efficient to. Where the needed labour is already concentrated, where they’re a short hop from all the sub-assembly plants… It’s not even an ‘Ontario/Quebec’ thing; for automotive don’t even bother looking north of the GTA.

I can’t speak to aerospace as well, but probably similar dynamics of parts suppliers, and location of the needed human capital. Industries tend to pop up where like industries already exist. They piggyback off of the existing economic infrastructure. If you were going to start a new petrochemical firm, would you be more likely to plop it in Toronto, or Calgary?

I’m all for expanding manufacturing and knowledge-based sectors all across the country. Knowledge is likely a lot easier. You tend to see it arise organically as cities become big and have good universities and research institutes. We do have to be realistic about manufacturing though; governments don’t choose where to plop down factories, the economic conditions for a project have to work and that will drive most questions of location. Unfortunately some regions are simply far from markets and don’t have a compelling benefit of existing infrastructure for certain industries.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Each premier holds their little fiefdoms. You want a national manufacturing base? You need a centralised state like France that can run roughshod over lower levels of devolution.

Canadian provinces are too big and strong for that. And lt makes sense, Canada is bigger than Europe. Or put another way, we function more like the canadian version of the European union, and we all know that if the EU was a country they would be beset by inefficiencies and regionalism as well.

No arguments here.

Bombardier has zero interest in putting a shop in Regina. Parts, transport hubs, trained workforce, all in Ontario and Quebec. Why would it do that? The only reason it would is because the Canadian government paid it to do so, and paid it more than the inefficiencies it would cost. And the second a government stops or slows the subsidies is the instant that plant gets shut down.

How much money as the Canadian Gov paid/given to Bombardier over the years ? Personally, just like the big 3 in 2008, I would let these companies fail.

Yes. Which is why people are up in arms about canadian tax dollars going to build pipelines that they view as only benefiting Alberta. But it helps all canadians, but people cannot see past their own noses. And this applies to potash in Saskatchewan, the auto industry in Ontario, aerospace in Quebec, and every other industry. But as long as we are beset by regionalism and cheapness at the same time, canadian manufacturing just wont be able to compete internationally outside of being branch plants to other nations big manufactures

Regionalism is our enemy, I firmly agree with you.

Spending on a sacred cow doesn't mean one is not cheap.

Buddy in a Ferrari (or in the context of expensive but not particularly great, a Volvo) but skips out on a bill is still cheap

 

[Altair]

How much money as the Canadian Gov paid/given to Bombardier over the years ? Personally, just like the big 3 in 2008, I would let these companies fail.

Bombardier gets very little in direct subsidies these days.

They are getting around 500m right now but that's in partnership with the CAF around globaleye.

You want to talk subsidies, the oil and gas sector getting 30b a year is probably the biggest line item.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Bombardier gets very little in direct subsidies these days.

They are getting around 500m right now but that's in partnership with the CAF around globaleye.

You want to talk subsidies, the oil and gas sector getting 30b a year is probably the biggest line item.

This is what AI says:



How much money does Bombardier make for Canada a year ?



How much money does oil make for Canada a year ?

 

[Altair]

This is what AI says:

View attachment 100163

How much money does Bombardier make for Canada a year ?

View attachment 100165

How much money does oil make for Canada a year ?

View attachment 100164

4 billion over 60 years and Canadians cried about it until bombardier cut their losses and now only sell businesses jets. Cheap cheap cheap.

Meanwhile we spend 30b a year on subsidies to oil and gas and its fine. (rich that people who cry about equalization or HSR dont care about 30b a year to oil and gas companies)

4b over 60 years works out to 66m a year. Simple grunt math,but 66m a year based on 1.2b in income to the government looks pretty good compared to 30b on 116b

That said,its very incomplete math,and fails at the core of it. If we wanted homegrown manufacturing here in Canada and a strong resource sector,we would support both. We don't. and that's fine, but nobody should complain when we end up as a manufacturing branch plant with no homegrown companies

 

[Halifax Tar]

That said,its very incomplete math,and fails at the core of it. If we wanted homegrown manufacturing here in Canada and a strong resource sector,we would support both. We don't. and that's fine, but nobody should complain when we end up as a manufacturing branch plant with no homegrown companies

We definatly should do this. It should simply be spread out across the country and not centered in one geographic region.

We wont overcome regionalism by maintaining the status quo. Maybe we dont want to...