Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

Europe has its hands full anyway supporting Ukraine, the war that America seems to have forgotten.

Iran and Russia are buddies and the US is actively at war with Iran. Not much of Europe is actively at war with Russia.

 

[daftandbarmy]

How and why?

For everybody else this is way, way worse than Iraq in 2003. "Freedom fries" seems cute in hindsight.

Iraq was the gift that kept on giving with ISIS. Now you're asking countries who saw how that went to sign on to an even bigger blunder (from their perspective)?

And for what? So that in 20 years, another POTUS can just say their troops were standing around doing nothing?

I don't think Americans understand the depth of anger in Europe right now. And quite a few probably don't care or even think Europe deserves it. Fair enough. But it's quite frankly audacious to go from "We're invading Greenland," in January, to, "Y'all need to suit up and join us in Iran."

Europe has its hands full anyway supporting Ukraine, the war that America seems to have forgotten.

Don't worry... MAGA think tanks located in Europe, funded by the US, will pump out thousands of Trump mini-mes to change their minds about the US

US funding for MAGA think tanks in Europe will backfire​

The Trump administration is engaged in self-defeating hypocrisy by moving to fund think tanks in Europe that will promote its ideological worldview. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the State Department intends to provide financial grants and other support to European initiatives which challenge European governments’ policies on free speech and promote MAGA values. This strategy will waste taxpayer money, while alienating allied governments and fostering anti-Americanism among their populations.

US funding for MAGA think tanks in Europe will backfire

The Trump administration is engaged in self-defeating hypocrisy by moving to fund think tanks in Europe that will promote its ideological worldview. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the State Department intends to provide financial grants and other support to European initiatives...

unherd.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

It's going to be quite a thing to see in 10-15 years when the world points at this moment in history as to why they still refuse to join the US on their foreign adventures

Sure. Another 10-15 years of the US outpacing everyone else. Just as likely they'll be begging the US to save them from whatever squabbles they fail to head off. By then it'll be just about time for Ukraine Round 3, assuming Ukraine manages to survive this one, no thanks to direct involvement by the rest of Europe.

I feel bad for future presidents but elections have consequences.

Amusingly, "elections have consequences" is exactly what Trump supporters often say when they spike the ball for another policy victory, just before they start citing the litany of people who have never really accepted the results of 2016 and 2024.

 

[Altair]

Sure. Another 10-15 years of the US outpacing everyone else. Just as likely they'll be begging the US to save them from whatever squabbles they fail to head off. By then it'll be just about time for Ukraine Round 3, assuming Ukraine manages to survive this one, no thanks to direct involvement by the rest of Europe.

Amusingly, "elections have consequences" is exactly what Trump supporters often say when they spike the ball for another policy victory, just before they start citing the litany of people who have never really accepted the results of 2016 and 2024.

Plan the parade.

 

[ytz]

This war is the more unpopular than Iraq. At the end of Iraq. Now. And those are opinions of Americans. It's WORSE internationally.

I actually still think they would have got some allies. Possibly some Gulf States. But this whole appeal seems to be so that Trump can hand this mess over and declare victory. Of course, when the less resourced militaries then fail, Trump blames them for it.

Let's not forget, they got Ukraine joining them in Iraq. There has always been somebody willing to fight to curry favour with the US. That's what makes this current situation so extraordinary. Nobody wants to step up.

It's going to be quite a thing to see in 10-15 years when the world points at this moment in history as to why they still refuse to join the US on their foreign adventures

The damage to americas soft and hard power due to one man and his band of merry yes men is nearly impossible to calculate.

The fact that Danes had casualty rates nearly as high as the US in Afghanistan, and were planning to blow up runways in Greenland just four months ago seems to have simply been memoryholed. Utter insanity and audacity.

I'm genuinely curious to see what happens to the US after Trump. Maybe morbid curiosity based on how closely we are tied to them. But I see the decoupling starting at work. It's pretty clear we're not going back.

 

[Altair]

I actually still think they would have got some allies. Possibly some Gulf States. But this whole appeal seems to be so that Trump can hand this mess over and declare victory. Of course, when the less resourced militaries then fail, Trump blames them for it.



The fact that Danes had casualty rates nearly as high as the US in Afghanistan, and were planning to blow up runways in Greenland best four months ago seems to have simply been memoryholed. Utter insanity and audacity.

I'm genuinely curious to see what happens to the US after Trump. Maybe morbid curiosity based on how closely we are tied to them. But I see the decoupling starting at work. It's pretty clear we're not going back.

The west cannot risk going back to the USA for anything.

MAGA won't die with trump so the risk of another one is always just 4 years away.

Nations need to be able to rely on partners for more than 4 year cycles. And by rely i mean, you can pull back and be isolationalist and most nations can accept that. Hungary wasn't kicked out of the EU for example. But when you actively start to actively undermine and threaten others, you've moved past isolationism to hostile actor and the west cannot afford to deal with that every 4 years.

This war of two parties will be the norm for generations. The leaders of tomorrow won't forget this either.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Plan the parade.

Why bother? We could be having one right now. Putin telegraphed himself in 2014, and look where things are. Europe had years to get ready before phase II; Europe's had years to do something more decisive since phase II started.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The west cannot risk going back to the USA for anything.

Of course it can, and will. People who talk seriously about more engagement with adversaries like China cannot expect to be also taken seriously when they talk about less engagement with the US. As bad as the Trump-led facets of the US are, they are not remotely as bad as true adversaries of western countries.

Countries that grit their teeth and suck up Trump's provocations and work to maintain a relationship with the US are going to be pulled along by the US in its economic wake. Long term, that is going to matter, a lot.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The USA is doing so so so well.

We should plan the parade.

Or better yet, lets get a aircraft carrier.

Yes, the US is doing well. The effect of Trump's tariffs has not been as ruinous to the US as either predicted or hoped; by almost all measures of output and employment the US is somehow still thriving. Every time there's a glimmer of hope for a resolution of the war, markets respond favourably within hours. The US can walk away from the conflict with Iran strutting behind its back and almost all its economic indicators will be "green board", except the appropriations passed by Congress. The adults in the administration and military will humbly apply some lessons learned about drone warfare and ammunition stockpiles, even if Trump spends every day auditioning to be Monty (everything goes gloriously and victoriously according to plan).

Iran will have to rebuild a lot of stuff and then get back to dealing with ongoing problems like the Tehran drought. There's going to be a lot of competition in the country for hard currency. Iran may try to make Gulf oil producers and consumers pay for some of it; they may or may not put up with it.

Ukraine will still be fighting its war with Russia, and the rest of Europe will be half-heartedly giving it just enough aid to keep an approximate stalemate/quagmire going while hoping the US might suddenly pick up the lion's share of the burden - an outcome less likely than it was before some of them got snotty over Trump's war.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Yes, the US is doing well. The effect of Trump's tariffs has not been as ruinous to the US as either predicted or hoped; by almost all measures of output and employment the US is somehow still thriving. Every time there's a glimmer of hope for a resolution of the war, markets respond favourably within hours. The US can walk away from the conflict with Iran strutting behind its back and almost all its economic indicators will be "green board", except the appropriations passed by Congress. The adults in the administration and military will humbly apply some lessons learned about drone warfare and ammunition stockpiles, even if Trump spends every day auditioning to be Monty (everything goes gloriously and victoriously according to plan).

Iran will have to rebuild a lot of stuff and then get back to dealing with ongoing problems like the Tehran drought. There's going to be a lot of competition in the country for hard currency. Iran may try to make Gulf oil producers and consumers pay for some of it; they may or may not put up with it.

Ukraine will still be fighting its war with Russia, and the rest of Europe will be half-heartedly giving it just enough aid to keep an approximate stalemate/quagmire going while hoping the US might suddenly pick up the lion's share of the burden - an outcome less likely than it was before some of them got snotty over Trump's war.

The US is at risk of losing world currency status. Once that goes the end is in sight for their empire.

My current largest question with all this is when is Trump going to start removing US forces from this war. The 60 days is up and congress hasn’t authorized this war.

 

[Altair]

The US is at risk of losing world currency status. Once that goes the end is in sight for their empire.

My current largest question with all this is when is Trump going to start removing US forces from this war. The 60 days is up and congress hasn’t authorized this war.

They took a break. Resets the timer. According to them anyways.

Turns out you can wage war for 59 days, take a 1 day break, and get back at it for another 59 days in perpetuity.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The US is at risk of losing world currency status. Once that goes the end is in sight for their empire.

Why "at risk"? A few countries selling and buying oil in alternative currencies isn't going to unseat the stability of the USD ("full faith and credit"), nor its widespread usage in countries with unstable currencies. About half of USD extant is thought to be circulating outside the US.

My current largest question with all this is when is Trump going to start removing US forces from this war. The 60 days is up and congress hasn’t authorized this war.

A president of the past few decades submitting to constitutional limitations without being forced to by action of Congress or courts? A novel idea.

My guess is Congress will provide some kind of authorization. Americans don't like this war, but they like a legislated cut-and-run even less.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US is at risk of losing world currency status. Once that goes the end is in sight for their empire.

My current largest question with all this is when is Trump going to start removing US forces from this war. The 60 days is up and congress hasn’t authorized this war.

He already said they won and had a ceasefire and talks. Now they can start the war afresh.