Iran Super Thread- Merged

[McG]

US military strikes Iranian boats, missile launch sites: CENTCOM

The U.S. military carried out strikes on ‌Monday in southern Iran against targets including boats attempting to lay mines and ⁠missile launch sites, in what it described as defensive actions.

www.reuters.com

"U.S. Central Command continues to defend ⁠our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ⁠ceasefire," said Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, ⁠a Central Command spokesperson.

,.. striking targets “during the ongoing ⁠ceasefire” …?

 

[brihard]

Speaking of the ongoing ceasefire, looks like Iran hit another tanker in the Gulf of Oman this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2059248417063276905

Remember: they don’t need to sink or otherwise ‘kill’ civilian vessels. They just need to make the risk of working in the area uneconomical/uninsurable and shipping stays stopped. It will remain quite easy for Iran to keep the Strait effectively closed simply through minor kinetic provocation of market forces.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Islamic regime is suffering as well, as they are running out of money. Likely the reason there are street clashes between the IRGC and some of their Arab proxies, who are likely not getting paid the promised amount. The US recent attacks are likely at the launch sites of those drone and small vessel bases. Any attack on a merchant vessel needs to see a heavy response in return and clear messaging to that effect. The US blockade is hurting badly.
Getting small arms to the Persian resistance groups also needs to be done and soon. That will increase to number of ambushes of IRGC checkpoints and patrols, meaning they must increase the number of personal at those sites and limit their exposure, making it hard to suppress the people.

 

[brihard]

The Islamic regime is suffering as well, as they are running out of money. Likely the reason there are street clashes between the IRGC and some of their Arab proxies, who are likely not getting paid the promised amount. The US recent attacks are likely at the launch sites of those drone and small vessel bases. Any attack on a merchant vessel needs to see a heavy response in return and clear messaging to that effect. The US blockade is hurting badly.
Getting small arms to the Persian resistance groups also needs to be done and soon. That will increase to number of ambushes of IRGC checkpoints and patrols, meaning they must increase the number of personal at those sites and limit their exposure, making it hard to suppress the people.

Yes they are, but they still seem resilient. I’ve seen no credible analysis suggesting the regime is teetering. Their capacity to repress seems to still be sufficient. For their current situation.

The blockade is hurting Iran badly, but it’s hurting everyone else too, increasingly badly.

Stoking resistance fires seems like it would be a really, really good way to piss the regime off further and to drive them further in the direction of not easing up on their role in the blockade.

The Iranian population and their political situation are not an apparent objective in the U.S. and Israel’s war aims. Any actions taken that involve the Iranian population will be for U.S. / Israeli interests only; not out of any benevolent wishes for the welfare of the population.

 

[Kirkhill]

The distance between Rad al Hadd, the point where the Omani coast does a 90 degree turn away from the Straits, and Gwadar, the new Chinese port in Pakistani Baluchistan, is under 350 km.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-showcases-underwater-drones-with-2-000-km-strike-capability/

Overview Of Ukrainian Maritime Drones (USVs) Of The Russo-Ukrainian War

USVs (uncrewed surface vessels) have been under development for navies for some years, but the war in the Black Sea has redefined them.Ukraine in particular has exploited emerging communications technologies to create effective USVs…Read More >….

www.hisutton.com

Either side could make that passage commercially unviable regardless how much effort is exerted trying to keep the channel clear and safe.

The same thing goes for the Red Sea route, and indeed any narrow choke point any where in the world.

This makes, to my eye, Duqm a better terminal than any of the other ports in the area because it immediately opens out onto the high seas. Just like Halifax and Placentia Bay. And Prince Rupert.

And unlike the Lakehead, Hamilton, Toronto, Montreal, Quebec or Saint John. Or, indeed, Churchill. Or Vancouver.

...

A small number of people destroyed Northern Ireland's economy. Similarly motivated people have more powerful and effective tools at their disposal today.

...

Iran imposing tolls is not going to bring trade back to the Straits of Hormuz. It might even scare investment away from any other areas reliant on similar choke points, choke points that historically have been the focus of trade. Too many crabs in the barrel at each of those choke points. Co-operate or die.

 

[brihard]

Iran imposing tolls is not going to bring trade back to the Straits of Hormuz. It might even scare investment away from any other areas reliant on similar choke points, choke points that historically have been the focus of trade. Too many crabs in the barrel at each of those choke points. Co-operate or die.

Disagreed. A reliably secure passage that includes a toll becomes insurable and priceable. If there’s a toll, the shipper passes as much of that cost on to the customer as they need to. Tolls become a revenue stream; they incentivize the party levying them not to mess about.

It would of course be utterly illegal under international law, just so that’s clear. But from a strict business standpoint it’s a knowable and consistent cost that just gets priced in.

I suspect the tanker companies would be thrilled to sail ships through with a couple bucks a barrel as toll over being precluded from shipping at all. They just need to know they won’t be shot at or otherwise risked out of insurance coverage.

 

[Kirkhill]

The Islamic regime is suffering as well, as they are running out of money. Likely the reason there are street clashes between the IRGC and some of their Arab proxies, who are likely not getting paid the promised amount. The US recent attacks are likely at the launch sites of those drone and small vessel bases. Any attack on a merchant vessel needs to see a heavy response in return and clear messaging to that effect. The US blockade is hurting badly.
Getting small arms to the Persian resistance groups also needs to be done and soon. That will increase to number of ambushes of IRGC checkpoints and patrols, meaning they must increase the number of personal at those sites and limit their exposure, making it hard to suppress the people.

From today's Telegraph:

"Partial restoration to internet access in Iran, says watchdog

"Internet connectivity in Iran has been partially restored after a near 90-day blackout, according to a watchdog.

"NetBlocks reported that a “partial restoration” had taken place in the Islamic Republic, but that it was “unclear” if it would be sustained.

"It added that it ended the “longest nationwide internet shutdown in modern history”."

....

"Iran’s presidential body suspended after restoring civilian internet access

"Iran’s judiciary has suspended a presidential body that ordered the restoration of internet access after a near-90 day blackout.

"The judiciary’s Mizan Online website said the ruling suspending the presidential body followed the “filing of complaints”, which were not attributed to an individual.

"The decision targeted the Special Headquarters for Organising and Governing the Country’s Cyberspace, a body formed on May 12 by Masoud Pezeshkian, the country’s president.

"It announced that internet access would be restored in Iran, according to government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, after local media reported that Pezeshkian had decreed the measure.

"Iran’s top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, holds the ultimate authority to restore the internet in the country."

...

So parliament's reformist President, everybody's preferred dancing partner, reinstated the Internet via a presidential body.

The Supreme Leader's judiciary of clerics promptly delegitimised the President's men.

...

If it wasn't for the funny hats and the guns it could almost be a Canadian story.

 

[Kirkhill]

Disagreed. A reliably secure passage that includes a toll becomes insurable and priceable. If there’s a toll, the shipper passes as much of that cost on to the customer as they need to. Tolls become a revenue stream; they incentivize the party levying them not to mess about.

It would of course be utterly illegal under international law, just so that’s clear. But from a strict business standpoint it’s a knowable and consistent cost that just gets priced in.

I suspect the tanker companies would be thrilled to sail ships through with a couple bucks a barrel as toll over being precluded from shipping at all. They just need to know they won’t be shot at or otherwise risked out of insurance coverage.

I agree if the toll guarantees safe passage. But if the toll is applied by an entity subject to a civil war, brigandry or hostile external forces, in other words lacks the means to impose its will effectively and guarantee that passage, then the "licence" to pass the shippers bought is without value.

And a toll enforced at gun point, as opposed for providing a service, is the definition of black mail.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I agree if the toll guarantees safe passage. But if the toll is applied by an entity subject to a civil war, brigandry or hostile external forces, in other words lacks the means to impose its will effectively and guarantee that passage, then the "licence" to pass the shippers bought is without value.

And a toll blocade enforced at gun point, as opposed for providing a service, is the definition of black mail.

 

[brihard]

I agree if the toll guarantees safe passage. But if the toll is applied by an entity subject to a civil war, brigandry or hostile external forces, in other words lacks the means to impose its will effectively and guarantee that passage, then the "licence" to pass the shippers bought is without value.

Agreed. A sine qua non of a protection racket is that you only have one extortioner. However, a business can still operate under shakedown as long as it’s predictable and the costs aren’t so burdensome the business fails.

 

[Kirkhill]

Agreed. A sine qua non of a protection racket is that you only have one extortioner. However, a business can still operate under shakedown as long as it’s predictable and the costs aren’t so burdensome the business fails.

Arguably one of the reasons the Portuguese built long range ships and rounded Africa to get to the Indies was the existing supply route from the Indies, supplying sugar and spice and everything nice, was too expensive and unstable because of all the people along the route.

It was also the reason why they developed their own sugar supply.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Disagreed. A reliably secure passage that includes a toll becomes insurable and priceable. If there’s a toll, the shipper passes as much of that cost on to the customer as they need to. Tolls become a revenue stream; they incentivize the party levying them not to mess about.

It would of course be utterly illegal under international law, just so that’s clear. But from a strict business standpoint it’s a knowable and consistent cost that just gets priced in.

I suspect the tanker companies would be thrilled to sail ships through with a couple bucks a barrel as toll over being precluded from shipping at all. They just need to know they won’t be shot at or otherwise risked out of insurance coverage.

Iran has changed their "toll" to an "Environmental fee", I give them credit for playing the progressive west well.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Iran has changed their "toll" to an "Environmental fee", I give them credit for playing the progressive west well.