Xi Jinping is probably warming up a team to swoop in on this opportunity. although, I don’t think the US is ready to pull out since Donald has a lot of personal deals there.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
American blunders measured in election cycles are Chinese opportunities measured in generations.
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FIFY
Sure, but the U.S. is the floundering hegemony here.
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We can’t take all the credit, all the time though.
PrairieFella
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This debacle is pretty squarely on Uncle Sam though haha.
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Worthwhile read comparing "war of destruction" vs "war of disruption." As some dead German guy said, "“The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.”
breakingdefense.com
Iran was the most successful failure in US airpower history - Breaking Defense
The US entered the conflict with a detailed plan for a war of destruction, but no serious plan for Iran’s war of disruption.
breakingdefense.com
HavokFour
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Now there's talk of moving CENTCOM out of Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and move to Israel.
www.jpost.com
US evaluates moving CENTCOM forces and naval assets to Israel after Iran war | The Jerusalem Post
One option is to establish a new base in the Negev big enough to hold the American army’s forces, or to expand one of the Negev’s air force bases and allocate an American compound there.
www.jpost.com
HavokFour
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Almost missed this.
Goodness, which 2 things could they be possibly be referring to? One might even be related to this very thread, and possibly another.
www.whitehouse.gov
Goodness, which 2 things could they be possibly be referring to? One might even be related to this very thread, and possibly another.
Declaration of Emergency and Authorization for Temporary Duty Free Importation of Phosphate Fertilizer Morocco
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION 1. Fertilizers are an essential component of agriculture and food production. Producers Every child deserves a safe and nurturing home where they can learn, grow, and reach their full potential. Adoption makes that possible by...
www.whitehouse.gov
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
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Here we go again.
apnews.com
British military says cargo ship reports attack in the Red Sea off Yemen
A cargo ship has come under attack off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported the attack off Yemen on Sunday.
apnews.com
There’s been a steady trickle of this… Yemen suggests likely the Houthis.Here we go again.
British military says cargo ship reports attack in the Red Sea off Yemen
A cargo ship has come under attack off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported the attack off Yemen on Sunday.
Iran continues to want to show it can deny safe transit to civilian shipping. Doubt that’ll change soon.
Those deals are toast the minute he leaves office. I wonder what the exit plan is for the Trump family there.
The US failed to deliver for the Gulf allies. I can't even imagine the reckoning coming when Trump is in a less threatening position (ie out of office).
McG
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The “ceasefire” is apparently over.
www.bbc.com
Trump says ceasefire is 'over' after US and Iran trade strikes
Speaking ahead of a Nato summit, the president says US negotiators can keep talking with the Iranians "if they want".
www.bbc.com
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The Iranian played this well.
This puts NATO and Trump potentially at odds during the NATO Summit. Trump can try and ‘ask’ NATO to get involved now and when the don’t, Trump will lose it. A win for Russia, a win for China and of course a win for Iran.
This puts NATO and Trump potentially at odds during the NATO Summit. Trump can try and ‘ask’ NATO to get involved now and when the don’t, Trump will lose it. A win for Russia, a win for China and of course a win for Iran.
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He essentially said that he personally is no longer even remotely interested in the situation that he created, and seems willing to walk away from it all.The “ceasefire” is apparently over.
Trump says ceasefire is 'over' after US and Iran trade strikes
Speaking ahead of a Nato summit, the president says US negotiators can keep talking with the Iranians "if they want".
Perhaps that means the overt and corrupt market manipulation may start to tail off......
just kidding!
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What personal deals would those be?
Seems like this one’s somewhat more protracted; broad daylight over in Iran but there’s both incoming and outgoing in the past hour.
www.aljazeera.com
Iran attacks on Gulf nations continue after heavy US bombing
US strikes over the past two days have killed at least 14 people and wounded 78 others in Iran, official says.
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Iran bet on the US losing resolve. They're finding out now you don't mess with oil transit.
Yes, but that bet was reciprocal. The U.S. thought they could force Iran into status quo ante, and it appears that’s not the case.
Iran had to know they would face further infrastructure hits and decided to strike anyway. I suspect their bets are at least in part predicated to the U.S. political calendar.
Give it a few more days of this and see what the oil markets are doing… Remmeber that when we see spot prices theyMre normally for Texas or North Sea oil deliveries one to two months hence; they’re therefore a bit of a ‘smoother’ bet on what oil will cost some time in the future; they therefore leave some room for relatively brief blips and are a reflection of mid term sentiment rather than what’s going on today. So, they’ll reflect how the market assesses the risk that this drags on intermittently or continuously.
Iran got some 50 million barrels of oil out (the majority to China), and probably pocketed a couple billion bucks, giving it a modest amount of breathing room. Volumes from the Gulf still haven’t come close to pre war, and inventories and reserves have not replenished. It was more a pause in things getting worse than much chance for recovery. We could easily see the world oil situation rapidly resume worsening. Hopefully it doesn’t… But that’s Iran’s biggest leverage and they know it.
So, maybe this settles over the weekend, or maybe we’re right back into it. Lots of U.S. aircraft went home, but that can be reversed quickly.
